Mets Ranked As #21org By FanGraphs
by Sam Page on Mar 24, 2011 1:20 PM EDT
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PrintThe infamous FanGraphs organizational rankings are rolling out this month and the Mets have clocked in at a poor 21 out of 30. At first blush, the ranking seemed odd to me, as Dave Cameron argued in his preview of the series that money is the single biggest driver of success in baseball. While this proclamation seemed like an overcorrection for perhaps staking too much on the perceived "intelligence" of certain organizations, I at least figured the emphasis on resources would help the Mets.
Apparently not--FanGraphs has ranked the Mets 18 out of 30 in terms of "financial resources," despite a $130+ million payroll, a brand new stadium in the world's biggest sports market, and their own TV network. Yes, the Wilpons are in financial trouble, but the Mets will, in all likelihood, be fine. If the Wilpons lose their impending lawsuit against the Madoff victims, they will be out a cool billion and sell the team. If the Wilpons win, they'll make the money back and the team will be fine. In no scenario do the Mets begin operating on small-market finances.
And yes, the Mets and SNY are leveraged up with huge loans right now. But those loans exist to keep the Mets operating with a top-5 payroll.
The ranking of baseball operations as 16th also seems a bit odd to me. The Mets' front office is mostly untested at this point, but haven't these organizational rankings historically emphasized the importance of the supposed sabermetric front offices? Jack Zduriencik got the Mariners to #6org after one third-place finish, no minor league system, and horrible major league talent.
Does Zduriencik's resume of drafting Matt LaPorta trump Sandy Alderson's World Series ring and Paul DePodesta's 6-week reign as Jeopardy champion? Guess so--the Mariners have not yet been ranked.
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#18finance
Is my new friend.
I mean, REALLY? http://www.baseball-reference.com/ estimates the Mets payroll to be 4th in the bigs.
I mean, really:
Fangraphs has reviewed 9 teams — the Mets and 8 others. All but one (the Cubs) have “Financial Resources” rated below the Mets. That means of the remaining unreviewed 20 teams, 16 have to be above the #18finance line. Or only four can be below the line.
Which means that if the Rays, Blue Jays, A’s, and Orioles are all below the line — you know, teams which haven’t spent over $100MM since at least 2007 — the Mets have to be below the Mariners and Rangers and Twins and Braves and Reds and Rockies, each of which is preposterous.
Oakland is ranked 28th for finances, but 18 overall.
Seems counter intuitive to saying that finances are the biggest part of it this year.
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metsguy234
yah
I wasn’t allowed to vote so that my bias didn’t affect the rankings, but I was allowed to write it up.
I agree with Sam on some points – long-term the finances are in good shape just because they in this market, with that park, and that TV station.
But right now? Third-highest leveraged team, one of three teams that lost money last year, one of two teams that lost value last year. those are not good things, Madoff or no.
This season, not forever.
As far as the finances are concerned, this is the 2011 ranking—-not the rankings for the next few years. This year, I think we can all agree, the Mets were limited in this off-season with their moves, and will likely be limited during the season. I don’t see the team picking up a huge contract via a trade this year.
Over the next few years, the Mets will clearly be fine. But in 2011? I think the uncertainty of the Wilpon’s financials for this season warrants a lower ranking than they would have received in the past.
Limited this season
Because their payroll had already hit 130 million
by Sam Page on Mar 24, 2011 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Right.
Right. So for this season, they don’t have much flexibility. It doesn’t matter if their payroll is $50m or $130m. They can’t spend anymore money. Teams with money to spend should be ranked higher. For this season.
If teams still have money to spend this season
they already failed their offseason goals, most likely.
Kicking knowledge in the face.
If this is a year-to-year based ranking, it would be basically a projection for the standings.
The future talent aspect would only affect marginally, as in who might be called up this season.
It makes more sense to be a study for the competitiveness of the franchises, considering their core competences, advantages and markets. In this case, the financial resources #18 doesn’t compute. Even if they were forced to reduce spending for the short term, it would probably hover around $100m or something along top 10.
They don’t state it clearly in the introduction post, but I imagine they are working with a window of 3 to 5 years, based on the weight of each factor. Finances, operations and present talent basically get the same weight. Present talent looks more oriented to the short term, like who can make the playoffs this year. Finances looks more long-term oriented, based on the market strength they play.
In the Mets case, I believe it would be worth exploring more about their expectations regarding the new FO, especially considering what happened with #6org last year, or what they learned from that.
In lobby for: Jaime Cevallos, Zack Lutz, orange unis and Rickroll as the 7th inning song.
The Unwritten Rules of AA
I don't think the rankings
are just for this year. I think it is for now and the immediate future, next 2-3 years, the overall position of the club.
Sam nails this. This year may be problamatic due to the lawsuits and leverage, but overall, the team will have massive resources at its disposal. Whether its the Wilpns or not running things won’t matter. And with Alderson et al in place, I think in 2-3 years it’ll be obvious the Mets should have been ranked higher, above the Mariners, certainly. There was a huge amount of confirmation bias going into last year in the fangraphs community regarding the mariners, saber defense stats, etc.
If it were just for this year...
Why would they talk about the farm system?
Bullpen Banter's Top 100 Prospects for 2011!
- - - - - - - -
You can find my musings at Bullpen Banter and Beyond the Box Score.
Maybe they're trying to avoid as much criticism as possible
especially after the #6org (fiasco?). It may seem strange because you are criticizing them, after all, but if they ranked the Mets higher with your justifications, they’d be met with all kinds of snark which they may not want to deal with again.
Trying to believe is my full-time occupation.
Doing things to avoid criticism is a pretty good way to limit how good something is or how well you do it.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
thats poor..., thats poor
taking on new meaning every day. Thanks ’PONS!!!
I hate Philadelphia so much.
Dave Cameron just got Paged!
Save Jenrry Mejia!
by Ogre39666 on Mar 24, 2011 2:57 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
And that children, is how a AA meme is born
#21org it is.
by Jeffrey Paternostro on Mar 24, 2011 4:33 PM EDT reply actions
Met total team value has dropped to $721 Million according to Forbes.
Over 3 years their value has dropped over 17% ,the largest drop in baseball by far.Now they want $250 million for a 25% share of the Mets while they have over $470 million in debt not including $25 million owed to MBL from their Buddy loan.With a projected attendance of 2.2 million,the banks will force the Wilpons to sell when they can’t meet their loan obligations.
Quick chart
In lobby for: Jaime Cevallos, Zack Lutz, orange unis and Rickroll as the 7th inning song.
The Unwritten Rules of AA
by Michkin on Mar 24, 2011 5:52 PM EDT reply actions 5 recs
They ranked our "future talent" at 65.00 (t-26th)
Didn’t they rank our farm system somewhere around 20th? And you figure the new FO would help bump it up a sport or two now that DePo and the new draft coordinator are in place. Seems to be about 5 places too low.
They ranked our “Baseball Operations” at 72.50 (t-16th). I mean I can see not ranking us in the top-10 because they haven’t had the opportunity to do that much (and therefore only have one offseason to look upon), but tell me another FO outside of the Red Sox who people can be more confident in or have respect for. Seems to be another 5 places too low.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Wait....
so….the price of beer is going up ?.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
Oh good
I always wanted to pay $50 for a PBR. Nothing like overpaying to be a hipster at a baseball game.
"..."
by Thaddeus Ballpheasant on Mar 24, 2011 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry but half a billion dollar loss
means that this org will not have any cash to spend for a looooong while, that is unless the sell. Don’t count on that either.
Oops
I meant to say $500M, but they could actually be forced to bad a few hundred million more than that. Which is still a hell of a lot of money. A $200M cash influx from an investor still doesn’t cover the $300M difference. That’s $300M dollars with an optimistic read on the Madoff thing. Is SNY really that profitable?
by Coolpapabell on Mar 26, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
$50 million, not billion
and the profit that Katz & Wilpon makes from SNY exceeds the Mets loss.
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
On a slightly related note
What is up with the Fangraphs comment section? I enjoy the site, but they have some of the worst commenters considering that it’s a site geared towards sabermetrics. On the one hand you have the anti-sabers who nonetheless feel like trolling. On the opposite end you have the guys who seem intent on living up to every stereotype of a “stats geek.”
Their comment section has been almost as bad as Metsblog for at least a year now.
FG got a bunch of mainstream press this year. Guess it brought a lot of ESPN forum types in.
I was expecting a middle of the pack ranking.
But the #18 finances ranking is ridiculous. Even if they’re bleeding money, cutting the payroll would be more than offset by a drop in revenue in this market.
I mean… how are the Cubs and Mariners ranked above us?
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