FanPost

Mike Pelfrey Under The Microscope: Part I

Mike Pelfrey Under The Microscope

Part I: A Season In Reflection

On the whole, Mike Pelfrey had a very solid 2010 season. Things started out strong, leading many to think that he was snubbed at the All-Star Game (Personally, I was not one of them), got a little dicey there in the middle, and ended fairly successful. All in all, he posted career low ERA, WHIP, FIP, xFIP, K/9, HR/9, K/BB, and BAA rates, and ended the season with a 2.9 WAR, the second highest in his career (trailing his career-high 2008 WAR by a tenth of a point). There's definitely room to improve, however. Even if you're Bob Gibson, there's room for improvement.

What makes it even more imperative that Pelfrey repeats his successes and strengths, and learns from his mistakes and shortcomings from the 2010 season is the fact that he's our Number 1 starter now. In the first game of the season, he'll be matching numbers with Florida's Josh Johnson. In his second start, he'll be toeing the rubber against Roy Halladay. Things will get slightly easier when he matches up against Washington's Number 1 starter, Livan Hernandez, but they'll get harder again when he matches up against Ubaldo Jimenez and the Colorado Rockies and Tommy Hanson and the Atlanta Braves. By that point, it's already going to be the middle of April, and the regular marquee pitching duels will begin to fade away due to roster moves and such. By the middle of April, however, a lot of damage can be done- especially with the Mets lacking a "true" stopper.

Before we analyze what Mike needs to do and not do in order to maximize his success in 2011, lets take an in-depth look at his 2011 season.

During The Off-Season

Pelfrey worked with pitching coach Dan Warthen on utilizing his secondary pitches more frequently, and more effectively. This lead him to add a more effective curveball into his arsenal (which primarily consisted of his four-seam fastball, his two-seam sinking fastball, and a slider), as well as a change-up/splitter- a change-up with a splitter grip, that broke harder than normal change-up. For Pitch F/X purposes, the pitch is classified as either a change-up or a splitter, depending on speed and break (NOTE: I went back and edited mentions of either pitch to denote a "split-finger change").


April

Pelfrey started four games in April. On the 9th, he pitched six innings against the Nationals, striking out four, walking four, yielding 4 hits and two earned runs. On the 15th, he pitched seven strong innings against the Rockies, striking out six, yielding five hits and no earned runs. On the 20th, he pitched seven strong innings against the Chicago Cubs, striking out six, walking three, yielding three hits and no earned runs. Finally, on the 25th, he pitched five innings against the Atlanta Braves, striking out three, walking five, and yielding five hits but no earned runs. And, while he didn't start, it is important to note that he made a relief appearance during that memorable game against the Cardinals on the 17th, where he threw a scoreless 20th to pick up the save. His cumulative ERA up until this point was 0.69.

What Pitch F/X says:

Pelfapril_medium

During the month of April, 47.4% of Pelfrey's pitches were fastballs- not of the sinking, two-seam variety, but of the zippier, four-seam variety. He threw 22.5% two-seam fastballs, his "trademark" sinker. The remaining pitches are split between "split-finger changes" (14.2%), sliders (10.4%), and curveballs (5.5%). He had a 20.19% groundball rate, a 12.50% flyball rate, and an 18.27% strikeout rate. His most effective pitch was his cutter, with a 73.9% strike rate, and his slider was his least effective pitch, with a 52.3% strike rate.


May

Pelfrey started six games in May. On the 1st, he pitched four innings against the Phillies, striking out two, walking one, yielding eight hits and six earned runs. On the 7th, against the Giants, he pitched seven+ innings, striking out four, walking none, yielding eight hits and three earned runs. On the 12th, he started against the Nationals, and went five+ innings, striking out six and walking three, while giving up seven hits and four earned runs. On the 17th, against the Braves, he pitched seven+ innings, striking out three and walking two, while giving up seven hits and two earned runs. On the 22nd, against the Yankees, he pitched six strong innings, striking out five and walking two, while giving up six hits and one earned run. Finally, on the 27th against the Phillies, he pitched seven strong innings, striking out five and walking five, but giving up only three hits and no earned runs. His cumulative ERA up until this point was 2.54.

What Pitch F/X says:

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Pelfrey primarily threw his four-seam fastball (43.1%), followed by his two-seam sinking fastball (21.5%), his "split-finger change" (20.9%), slider (8.3%), and curveball (6.2%). His four-seam fastball was his most effective fastball, with a 66.4% strike rate, while his two-seam sinking fastball was his less effective fastball, with a 65.1% strike rate. His curveball was his most effective breaking ball, with a 70.3% strike rate, while his "split-finger change" was his least effective breaking ball, with a 20.0% strike rate. He had a 22.15% groundball rate, a 15.82% strikeout rate, and a 10.76% flyball rate.


June

Pelfrey made six starts in June. On the 1st, against the Padres, he pitched eight innings, striking out a season high eight and walking two, while giving up four hits and one earned run. On the 8th, against the Padres once more, he pitched a nine innings, striking out six and walking none, while giving up five hits and one earned run in, arguably, his best outing of the season. On the 13th, against the Orioles, he pitched six innings, striking out one and walking three, while giving up nine hits and three earned runs. On the 19th, against the Yankees, he pitched seven innings, striking out two and walking three, while giving up seven hits and five earned runs. On the 25th, against the Twins, he pitched six innings, striking out two and walking none, while giving up six hits and two earned runs. Finally, on the 30th, against the Marlins, he pitched four+ innings, striking out three and walking one, while giving up twelve hits and four earned runs. His cumulative ERA up until this point was 2.93.

What Pitch F/X says:

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Pelfrey primarily threw his four-seam fastball (42.1%), followed by his two-seam sinking fastball (24.4%), "split-finger change" (25%), curveball (5.4%), and slider (3.0%). His four-seam fastball was his most effective fastball, with a strike rate of 69.0%, while his two-seam sinking fastball was his less effective fastball, with a strike rate of 66.9%. His "split-finger change" was his most effective breaking ball, with a strike rate of 62.7%, while his slider was his least effective breaking ball, with a strike rate of 47.4%. He had a 23.08% groundball rate, a 15.98% flyball rate, and a 13.02% strikeout rate.


July

Pelfrey made five starts in July. On the 5th, against the Reds, he pitched four+ innings, striking out one and walking four, while giving up nine hits and seven earned runs. On the 10th, against the Braves, he pitched four innings, striking out two and walking three, while giving up twelve hits and four earned runs. On the 19th, against the Diamondbacks, in, arguably, the worst start of his season, he pitched one+ innings, striking out one and walking two, while giving up seven hits and six earned runs. On the 24th, against the Dodgers, he pitched five innings, striking out two and walking two, while giving up six hits and two earned runs. Finally, on the 30th, against the Diamondbacks, he pitched five+ innings, striking out four and walking two while giving up eight hits and four earned runs. His cumulative ERA up until this point was 4.10.

What Pitch F/X says:

Pelfjuly_medium

Pelfrey primarily threw his two-seam sinking fastball (42.2%), followed by his four-seam fastball (28.0%), "split-finger change" (16.9%), slider (7.8%), and curveball (5.1%). His four-seam fastball was his most effective fastball, with a strike rate of 73.2%, while his two-seam sinking fastball was his less effective fastball, with a strike rate of 71.8%. His slider was his most effective breaking ball, with a 60.0% strike rate, while his curveball was his least effective breaking ball, with a 47.8% strike rate. He had a 15.65% groundball rate, a 8.70% flyball rate, and a 8.70% strikeout rate.


August

Pelfrey made five starts in August. On the 4th, against the Braves, he pitched four+ innings, striking out one, walking two, while giving up nine hits and four earned runs. On the 10th, against the Rockies, he pitched seven strong innings, striking out four and walking one, while giving up four hits and no earned runs. On the 15th, against the Phillies, he pitched seven innings, striking out one and walking none, while giving up seven hits and three earned runs. On the 20th, against the Pirates, he pitched eight innings, striking out five and walking two, while giving up six hits and one earned run. Finally, on the 27th, he pitched eight strong innings against the Astros, striking out four and walking two, while giving up six hits and no earned runs. His cumulative ERA up until this point was 3.61.

What Pitch F/X says:

Pelfaugust_medium

Pelfrey primarily threw his four-seam fastball (45.1%), followed by his two-seam sinker (31.4%), "split-finger change" (10.8%), slider (7.6%), and curveball (5.0%). His four-seam fastball was his most effective fastball, with a 67.3% strike rate, while his two-seam sinking fastball was his less effective fastball, with a 63.8% strike rate. His "split-finger change" was his most effective breaking ball, with a 54.7% strike rate, while his slider was his least effective breaking ball, with a 48.8% strike rate. He had a 24.65% groundball rate, a 17.61% flyball rate, and a 10.56% strikeout rate.


September

Pelfrey made six starts in September. On the 1st, he threw five innings against the Braves, striking out two and walking none, while giving up nine hits and four earned runs. On the 6th, he lasted only three+ innings against the Nationals, striking out one, walking three, giving up five hits and six earned runs. On the 11th, against the Phillies, he pitched seven+ innings, striking out five and walking none, while giving up six hits and two earned runs. On the 16th, he pitched seven innings against the Pirates, striking out four and walking four, while giving up six hits and two earned runs. On the 21st, against the Marlins, he pitched seven innings, striking out four and walking none, while yielding five hits and one earned run. Finally, on the 28th, he pitched seven+ innings against the Brewers, striking out two and walking four, while giving up five hits and three earned runs. His cumulative ERA up until this point was 3.75.

What Pitch F/X says:

Pelfsep_medium

Pelfrey primarily threw four-seam fastballs (38.8%), followed by his sinking two-seam fastball (28.4%), his slider (14.4%), his "split-finger change" (15.7%), and his curveball (4.7%). His two-seam sinking fastball was his most effective fastball, with a 71.2% strike rate, while his four-seam fastball was his least effective fastball, with a 59.9% strike rate. His curveball was his most effective off-speed pitch, resulting in a 71.4% strike rate, while his "split-finger change" was his least effective off-speed pitch, resulting in a 45.9% strike rate. He had a 23.57% groundball rate, a 14.65% flyball rate, and a 11.46% strikeout rate.


October

Pelfrey made one start in October, against the Nationals on the last game of the season, the 3rd. He pitched seven innings, striking out four, walking two, and yielding four hits and one earned run. His cumulative ERA up until this point, and final season ERA, was 3.66.

What Pitch F/X says:

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Nothing out of the ordinary here, especially since his body of work in October consists only of one game. As was the case for the majority of 2010, he primarily threw four-seam fastballs (45.1%), followed by his two-seam sinker (29.4%), his slider 12.7%, his "split-finger change" (7.9%), and curveball (4.9%). He had a 19.23% groundball rate, a 19.23% flyball rate, and a 15.38% strikeout rate. All of his pitches were effective, with his 71.7% four-seam fastball strike rate being his most successful pitch, and his 40.0% curveball strike rate being his least successful pitch. Again, since this only is one game, small sample size alert.

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