Thoughts on Allan Dykstra

by Alex Nelson on Mar 30, 2011 11:15 AM EDT

A few quick thoughts on the Eddie Kunz-Allan Dykstra swap:

Eddie Kunz, as a pitcher, does nothing right: he can’t throw strikes, he doesn’t have a good enough breaking pitch to get strikeouts, he doesn’t have great stamina, his ground ball rates last year weren’t anything special, and his command of the written word is appalling. Any opportunity to get anything in return for him should be seized upon; Kunz was never going to be anything in the Mets organization.

Allan Dykstra, on the other hand, was a very interesting and often divisive prospect back in 2008, an odd draft class in that a ton of collegiate corner infielders went in the first round—Yonder Alonso, Justin Smoak, Brett Wallace, David Cooper, Ike Davis, and Dykstra. Dykstra had perhaps the best batting eye in his draft class, and his performance at Wake Forest was awe-inspiring. Many sabermetric types fell in love—2008 was the first draft I live blogged, and several fans in the audience vastly preferred him to Ike Davis.

But his swing was bizarre. Scouts felt there was no way he'd adapt to wood bats, that both the batting average and the power wouldn't show in the pros. And he needed both; he was a "third baseman" in college, but he had a strange body type, very bottom-heavy, marking him as a definite pro first baseman. I was not quite so harsh in my criticism, but I did grade him as a second-rounder with a chance to go in the supplemental if a team liked him. I had him ranked last among the six first basemen, well behind Davis. When the Padres snagged him with their first-round pick, my jaw dropped.

Thus far, the scouts have been right, though a balky hip lingering from his high school days has been partially to blame. An early inability to hit for contact at all—he hit .226 in his first full season—led to swing overhauls and depressed expectations. Even worse, the power many hoped would come from a man his size just hasn’t manifested.

Some might point to last year’s performance as an improvement; they’d probably be right, but it’s a very small one and it still adds up to a thoroughly mediocre final package. Dykstra hit an improved .241/.372/.438 last year, but the California League might be the best hitter’s league in all of baseball, even if Lake Elsinore does not host one of its most batter-friendly parks. Furthermore, Dykstra was not young for the league, and some numbers point to more trouble ahead: his raw walk rate, while still excellent, dropped considerably from the year before, and his strikeout rate jumped from a terrible 25.1% to an abysmal 31.6%. It's not a promising combination.

Maybe Sandy Alderson and company know something I don’t, or maybe Dykstra really aced the essay section of the test, but when you consider Dykstra’s age, surroundings, position, and lack of athleticism, it’s difficult to see someone who will succeed in Double-A. I don’t think he’s any more valuable to an organization than Eddie Kunz despite being two years younger, but I’ve been wrong before, and sometimes just not being Eddie Kunz is enough.

Added by Eric:

I asked Paul DePodesta for his thoughts on Dykstra (we know he liked him in 2008) and he had this to say about the patient first baseman:

"He’s always controlled the zone and has significant raw power. Even when he hasn’t hit for average, he’s been a productive offensive player. An important driver of the deal was that we have a better opportunity for Dykstra here than they had for him in San Diego, and they have a better opportunity for Eddie [Kunz] than we had here."

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Comments

it is good to have AAA depth

where is Brant Colamarino these days?

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Mar 30, 2011 11:18 AM EDT reply actions

LOL

and his command of the written word is appalling.

Just pile it on.

Although, I would agree that using the word “ruff” is appalling, even in a blog post.

Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!

by Steve Schreiber on Mar 30, 2011 11:20 AM EDT reply actions

I like the comment by Depo

showcases a philosophy of getting the most out of what we have.

Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?

by KeithsMoustache on Mar 30, 2011 11:22 AM EDT reply actions

I was pretty indifferent about the deal but

if this is true,

An important driver of the deal was that we have a better opportunity for Dykstra here than they had for him in San Diego, and they have a better opportunity for Eddie [Kunz] than we had here.

Then I like that two organizations, while not exactly hurting themselves, making a move with the players future in mind.

by Sokojoe on Mar 30, 2011 11:27 AM EDT reply actions

What does this say about scouting

when our new FO had him above Davis? Everyone is looking at this through the lens of our previous mistake on Kunz, but what bothers me is seeing Sandy’s previous mistake and more or less a refusal to fully acknowledge it. At this point does Dykstra have any more or less upside than Kunz? Probably not. And it probably doesn’t matter, but it does worry me that they are still in love with these rather one-dimensional player types.

by dougdilg on Mar 30, 2011 11:48 AM EDT reply actions

I don't think it says anything about Ike.

Nor does it have anything to do with the FO not owning up to mistakes. Not owning a mistake would be trading actual value for Dykstra.

Orgs need warm bodies. Warm bodies with the potential to help are better than warm bodies without that potential. Neither one is any great shakes, but like Alex said in his writeup, sometimes not being Kunz is enough.

by SoCal Metfan on Mar 30, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Dykstra may be one dimensional, but Kunz would be no-dimensional

The guy has no real upside, and therefore no real value. To acquire anything for him with a useful skill is a positive. Dykstra may not ever develop, but he already possesses a skill which will translate to the major league level. Eddie Kunz is not worth anybody with a major league skill, as he possesses none himself.

by Stephen Schmidt on Mar 30, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions

That's not unreasonable

Though the sheer number of Kunz/Dykstra conversations seem vastly out of proportion for a trade that will probably end up with minimal impact. I think its a plus (I guess) that our scouts can identify a player with one plus skill (Dykstras’s patience) and trade him for a guy with no plus skills (I guess Kunz still has plus velocity technically, but clearly no idea where it’s going). Same thing with the Hu/Antonioni deal (take a probable AAAA guy and trade him for a guy with a elite, ready-now defense).

I think if Dykstra was, say, an Angel instead of a Padre, there would be less fuss over the whole deal. You have to balance knowing the guy better than maybe the rest of the Mets scouts, versus overvaluing him because you have seen him more.

And we do need some more up the middle guys.

by Jeffrey Paternostro on Mar 30, 2011 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Did they really have him above Davis,

or did they not expect Davis to fall to them?

"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."

by BobbyV_Incognito on Mar 30, 2011 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe I'm missing it, but I don't see where anyone says anything about liking him over Davis

And Davis didn’t fall to them, so it’s hard to take that from the draft

by Stephen Schmidt on Mar 31, 2011 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions

Anyone from the front office that is

by Stephen Schmidt on Mar 31, 2011 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions

Organizational guys

An important driver of the deal was that we have a better opportunity for Dykstra here than they had for him in San Diego, and they have a better opportunity for Eddie [Kunz] than we had here

We can maybe hold out some hope that the Mets can do something with this guy, and they do seem to have had some success lately with these big power bats.

But I think it still comes down mostly to exchanging two non-prospects just to fill out rosters. The Mets have Duda potentially in AAA, and some guys at lower levels who could eventually move to 1B (such as Aderlin), but no legit 1B prospects in A+ or AA. And they have other power arms (Rustich, Carr, etc.) who can fill out the AA pen rather than Kunz.

by acerimusdux on Mar 30, 2011 11:56 AM EDT reply actions

It's also worth noting that Kunz was out of options this year

If we ever called Kunz up he’d have to be exposed to waivers again to be sent down. Dykstra still hasn’t been added to the 40, so he’s got all his option years remaining on the off chance he does develop. He’s more valuable than Kunz as a AAAA type just because of this.

by Stephen Schmidt on Mar 30, 2011 12:04 PM EDT reply actions

not sure about that

he did have 3 seasons on the 40-man in which he spent part — or in his case, all — of the season in the minors, BUT he does not yet have 5 pro seasons under his belt which i believe gives him a fourth season of options, that being this year.

by Rob Castellano on Mar 30, 2011 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions

"Sometimes just not being Eddie Kunz is enough"

is pretty much all the indictment on Kunz’ value that we need. Welcome, Allen.

by bjk3047 on Mar 30, 2011 4:59 PM EDT reply actions

That draft was 3 years ago

Almost all college players (except #2) Clearly Depo loves OB. Nothing wrong with that but OB evaporates with holes in your swing. Each level up requires new adjustments against new and better pitchers. This forms the basis for players making quick adjustments in the Majors and having a good eye is a vital part of that but IMO can be taught simply by Sandy’s method of 10% walks. What concerns me is the part that cannot be taught being overlooked for what can be.

We have no idea where Dykstra was ranked on the Padre board but I would bet it was higher than some of those taken before him and all I can say is I sincerely hope that the ability to flat out hit at positions like 1B take priority over the good eye.

Plate discipline will get your pitch, but isn’t going bang it off the fence.

Lack of plate discipline should move guys way down toward the later rounds but average discipline and true talent should prevail over average talent and a good approach because that can be taught and you can still bet some guys in college are being coached not to walk even right now.

The best prospects have to seen over and over in the summer leagues when their playing with and against the best of their peers. Not trying to carry a college or high school team.

by t agee on Mar 30, 2011 5:33 PM EDT reply actions

quote >>>>in the summer leagues when their playing with and against the best of their peers

How about this thread…. http://www.rightfieldfog.com/?p=932
>>> "The decade’s best run producer wasn’t Justin Smoak or Evan Longoria or Gordon Beckham. Those guys may have gotten all the headlines, but the guy driving in all the runs? That was Allan Dykstra. In 82 career games, Dykstra drove in 60 runs. There are plenty of other guys who spent two summers on the Cape and drove in a lot of runs, but no one this decade drove in as many as Dykstra. "

Dykstra hit .308/.444/.481 for the 2007 Chatham A’s in the Cape Cod League. He was 8th in the league in average, third in RBI (31) and third in OBP. He made the CCL All-Star team at DH. Baseball America named him the #16 prospect in the Cape Cod League.4

by Wake.fan on Apr 3, 2011 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Somehow every time we trade a reliever to SD

We come out on the wrong end…

by Joshuah on Mar 31, 2011 8:13 AM EDT reply actions

Dykstra is not in the MLB pattern

Quite simply, he just doesn’t have a pro-level swing. It’s a shame with those tools. The problem is he has a big long push swing that is not capable of dealing with changes on fly. He is left rendering to guess.

I saw him at RB, and he is a talent for sure. However his swing mechanics are sub-par, and I publicly predicted (well sort-of) that the Padres wasted a pick back when it happened. I have a good friend who was buddies with Kevin Towers at the time and I told him you should pass along my swing review to Towers to see if I can save him a million or two next time around but nothing materialized.

It’s really a shame I’d like to see him get through this, but my guess is he’s probably already tried a little of this or a little of that, and at this point it’s in his head. By the way my prediction is based solely on studying the video and comparing his swing to high level hitters. That and the fact that most kids, whatever swing they’ve developed through High School is really the one that will carry them through their career. David Wright’s swing (for you Mets folks) is not that drastically different from his Sr. year in High School. Once I saw some of Allan’s Alaskan league swings and some of the scout video and started doing analysis I thought, nope no way.

I also mentioned this too a Rockies Cross-checker who totally saw it my way. I have no idea if that scout was planning on recommending him or not, I got the impression that it didn’t matter to him because they had different guys they were looking at. In short, if Allan is going to make anything happen to get to the show, he’ll have to change his swing.

by cardiffbaseball on Apr 12, 2011 2:06 AM EDT reply actions