Dave Allen at The Baseball Analysts provides a graph of projected wins for NL East teams according...

Dave Allen at The Baseball Analysts provides a graph of projected wins for NL East teams according to various projection systems. The Mets projections range from 75 to 85 wins, with ~80 being the consensus. The graph is near identical to last year's, which turned out to be pretty spot on.

about 1 year ago James Kannengieser 12 comments 0 recs |

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Flip us with the Marlins, and I'd say that all looks pretty good

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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Apr 1, 2011 12:11 PM EDT reply actions

To be fair...

Those predictions were only right about the Mets last year because they were so comically wrong about everyone on the team that they managed to cancel out. It’s hard to go that wrong if you’re estimating a team to be about .500

by djletz on Apr 1, 2011 12:21 PM EDT reply actions

Vegas has the Mets low

Because their fans are too depressed (and likely poor) to bet on the team.

If you can bet the over at 76 wins, that’s a pretty good bet.

by hotspur on Apr 1, 2011 12:30 PM EDT reply actions

it doesn't have SI, though

they put the nats in front of us.

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by rexthejet on Apr 1, 2011 12:59 PM EDT reply actions

I don't think SI uses computer projections

Writer opinions. And we all know how much the writers love the Mets.

by xnumberoneson on Apr 1, 2011 1:07 PM EDT reply actions

has any system consistently beat vegas?

i’m guessing no, otherwise they’d be bajillionaires, right? i’m betting on vegas being the best predictor year in and year out. efficient markets theory, baby.

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by kendynamo on Apr 1, 2011 1:16 PM EDT reply actions

But a market that depends heavily on

“the common man’s” thinking. It doesn’t need to beat smart thinking, it just needs to beat common thinking.

So this may be the year of all years to beat Vegas – because people are not paying attention to under-the-radar but potentially quite smart moves.

How would I place a bet on those Vegas odds?

by SuperT on Apr 1, 2011 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions

efficient markets ignore that

or at least, obviates it. the idea that if there is an edge to be had, say, the masses all plumping for the phillies, then the smart money will then bet heavily against them, eventually causing the line to adjust to where youre back to flipping a coin.

or if pecota really was better than vegas, then anyone with access to pecota should just go place bets where pecota differs from vegas. that people don’t bet their life savings on something like that means either a) vegas has already adjusted to take that into account or b) pecota isn’t really better than vegas.

so basically, because i believe vegas lines operate in a an efficient (or mostly efficient) market, no prediction system will ever better better than vegas.

they can still kick the shit out off human predictions and SI, however.

HELLO HELLO MR WILPON... BUY THAT MANSION. WE DONT NEED A CONDO.

by kendynamo on Apr 1, 2011 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions

There's a BIG difference between people being supplied with good information

And people actually using that information to guide their decisions.

Everyone who invested in real estate up til 2008 was paying a price determined by the market. That doesn’t mean their condo in the middle of FLA or AZ was really worth $400k.

by hotspur on Apr 1, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions

right, so no market is truely perfect

but i look at vegas books and the stock market the same way. even the experts dont know any better than the person picking at random. unless you have insider information about a stock or a sports team, you no better than anyone else.

HELLO HELLO MR WILPON... BUY THAT MANSION. WE DONT NEED A CONDO.

by kendynamo on Apr 1, 2011 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions