10 Games into the Season: The Good, The Bad, and The Hopeful

by metman726 on Apr 12, 2011 1:13 PM EDT

Well, the 2011 Mets baseball season is only 10 incredibly frustrating (for the most part) games old, and there has been a lot that we fans have had to complain about. But when we look a little closer at the stats, it seems as if there actually is some hope for this year yet. More after the jump.

THE GOOD:

There has been a lot to be frustrated with this year (ahem) Bullpen (ahem), but there has actually been many good things for the Mets this year.

Hitters

Jose Reyes- .5 WAR, 8.5 K%, 128 OPS+, does have an unsustainable .372 BABIP

David Wright- .5 WAR, 151 OPS+, .225 ISO, does have an unsustainable .407 BABIP

Ike Davis- .4 WAR, 167 OPS+, 11 RBI, .80 WPA, .216 ISO, does have an unsustainable .414 BABIP

Carlos Beltran- .2 WAR, 123 OPS+, .300 ISO (not a typo)

Pitchers

St. Chris Young- .4 WAR, 268 ERA+, 8.76 K/9, He hits, does have an unsustainable .197 BABIP.

Jonathan Niese- .4 WAR, 3.18 xFIP, 2:10 BB:K Ratio

Fransisco (that's fun to say) Rodriguez- 0 WAR (hasn't cost us anything yet!), 12.27 K/9, 3.57 FIP

THE BAD:

Hitters

David Wright- 30 K%, unsustainable .407 BABIP

Willie Harris- 37 K%, unsustainable .438 BABIP

Scott Hairston- -.2 WAR, 53.3 K%, -30 OPS+

Josh Thole- -.1 WAR, .034 ISO (that's poor), 24.1 K%, unsustainable .364 BABIP, -2.0 FLD (in only 71 Innings at Catcher)

Pitchers

Ryota (Toyota Irrigation) Igarashi- -.1 WAR (in .2 IP), 9.35 xFIP

Blaine Boyer (DFA)- -.3 WAR, 7.52 FIP (4.90 xFIP), 1.3 K/9

THE HOPEFUL:

Hitters

Angel Pagan- unsustainably low .171 BABIP, 13 BB%, 7.7 K%, .1 WAR (even while playing poorly)

Carlos Beltran- unsustainably low .217 BABIP

Brad Emaus- unsustainably low .222 BABIP, 10.7 BB%

Pitchers

Jason Isringhausen- SSSS, but did hit 92 on the radar gun Monday night

Tim Byrdak- unsustainable .455 BABIP, 13.5 K/9, 3.04 xFIP

Bobby Parnell- unsustainable .417 BABIP, 14.54 K/9, 3.27 xFIP

Mike Pelfrey- unsustainable .348 BABIP, 43.5 GB%

Blaine Boyer- He's gone

Looking at all these stats, it looks like as soon as the BABIP gods straighten everything out, the bullpen will improve and Pagan and Emaus will actually start hitting. Hopefully this will happen sooner rather than later and the Mets can play some decent, watchable baseball. Until then, the Mets need to focus on doing the small things well on offense (e.g. someone other than Ike or Dubs getting the man in from third with less than two outs) and actually throwing strikes (something foreign to a Dan Warthen pitching staff).

My thanks to Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference for the stats.

In an unrelated note: Watch Emaus and Endy on SNY then stay tuned for Ivan Rodriguez: Professional Hitter.

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.

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Comments

That's encouraging about Emaus and Pagan

but they also don’t seem to be hitting the ball hard very often. Pagan has tons of pop ups and Emaus is just too far away from the plate, as Gary and Keith have mentioned. Major league pitchers are painting the outside corner on him, plus he’s getting the rook treatment on a lot of borderline calls from the umps. He needs to make some adjustments quickly or he’ll find himself back in the Toronto system sooner than later.

by David G on Apr 12, 2011 1:59 PM EDT reply actions

Re Pagan

In this very small sample size, Pagan’s LD% and GB% are both down a couple of percentage points and his FB% is up 4 points. What’s really killing him is his infield fly percentage (17 percent this year compared to 10 percent last year), as infield flies are near-automatic outs. Interestingly, he has is in general been a much more selective hitter, which is helping him get on base via the walk (13% BB%) and minimizing K’s (7.7 K%); both of those percentages are way better than his career rates. A byproduct, though, may be that he is passing up too many hittable pitches – he’s only swinging at 40% of balls in general, and 59% of pitched balls in the strike zone, compared with 47% and 64%, respectively, last year (although this may be a red herring as 40% and 59% are in line with his 2009 numbers, which were very good overall).

In sum – Pagan’s got to start hitting line drives, and may need to swing a bit more than he is. But hopefully no reason to panic. Emaus I’m not sold on yet, but we’ll see.

by dontstopbelieving on Apr 12, 2011 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions

And pop ups often happen

when you’re out in front of the pitch. I’d bet a lot of them are on change ups. He just needs to settle down and stay back.

by David G on Apr 12, 2011 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Not to nitpick, but...

I wouldn’t say Thole’s BABIP is unsustainable. If you use the line drive rate + 0.120 rule of thumb for expected BABIP, Thole’s actually been unlucky thus far. His BABIP should be around 0.390. the 27% line drive rate he’s putting up this year isn’t far off of his career rate either (25%). Granted his career so far is about 300 plate appearances total, so obviously SSS caveats apply.

by tm on Apr 12, 2011 2:35 PM EDT reply actions

but .364 is extremely high

and I don’t believe that Thole is talented enough to keep it that high

"Anybody with ability can play in the big leagues. But to be able to trick people year in and year out the way I did, I think that was a much greater feat." -Bob Uecker
"Who is the girl in the dugout, with the long hair? What's going on here? You have got to be kidding me. Only player personnel in the dugout. I won't say that women belong in the kitchen, but they don't belong in the dugout." -Kieth Hernandez

by metman726 on Apr 12, 2011 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions

He does make a lot of hard contact, though.

And doesn’t strike out a ton (in a typical season, that is.)

Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!

by Steve Schreiber on Apr 12, 2011 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Just because it’s high doesn’t mean it’s unsustainable. A 360ish BABIP is about right for the line drive rate he’s put up thus far in his career.

by tm on Apr 13, 2011 8:29 AM EDT up reply actions

You missed The Rodriguez Watch!

It helps that the team is sucking, but after 13 games he’s only finished 3, putting him on pace for less than 40 GF for the year. I think they could have held him out of the 9-4 shellacking by Colorado, but I suppose they have to make it look credible when he ends up with GF in the low 50s.

by Brian Singer on Apr 15, 2011 8:06 PM EDT reply actions