Which Part of the Couer Would You Traide?
When Sandy Alderson says that no player is untouchable everyone (especially the MSM) immediately starts to picture David Wright and Jose Reyes in different trade situations. I'm sure every Mets fan is like me and would love to have both of them remain Mets for life and go into the HoF together as Mets with at least three WS rings. Even without Alderson leading the team however the chances of tem staying Mets were slim to none. Since the players that we actually want to trade are either untradeable or have super low value (Beltra, Rodriguez,
When I look at Jose Reyes, I don't see as big an injury risk as everyone else seems to. He has been healthy since his first full season in 2005 except for 2009. His injuries in 2010 while they did affect his performance a little were not serious injuries. They did not affect his legs (which seems to be the biggest concern wrt his health) and they did not keep him out for a significant ammount of time. In fact even with those injuries and with Jerry jerking him around in the batting order, Reyes had a heck of a rebound year hitting just below his career line of 286/335/434 (282/321/428 in 2010). Even if Reyes' speed did start to diminish (which is not likely to happen for at least another few years, read: near the end of his next contract) he is still able to hit for some power averaging 13 HR per full season (2005-2010 excl. 2009), and field a premium position well which are skills that should not diminish much by the end of another contract.
David Wright is obviously the poster boy for the team deemed "franchise player" and team leader by most. Well lets forget about any intangibles that make him a leader, because we can't project how they will help us win games. And "franchise player" is a term that really means nothing in baseball except maybe that he's the most popular player on the team. But popularity doesn't win games either and if his place on the team were solely for selling tickets because the fans like him, I would have to say that winning more games would sell more tickets than David's smiling face any day. Not to say that David Wright can't help us win baseball games. You don't get to be a five time all star just by being popular. Since Wright's first full season he has posted a total WAR of 34.3 and his lowest year, 2009 was a 3.5. Not too shabby. However his game has not been flawless since 2008. In 2009 David's K% mysteriously jumped from below 20% to 26% and rising. He is past the point where he makes an out every fourth at-bat just from striking out, and has posted a wOBA 20 points below his career average in the past two seasons. Now part of this is due to the fact that by the end of 2009 he started swinging at a lot more balls outside the strike zone, so it's potentially a problem he could fix if he worked on his plate discipline. The trend has not been going in the right direction however for Wright to regain his 2005-2008 form. In addition to his hitting woes, his fielding has been atrocious according to his UZR of -10.0 and -10.6 in the past two years. I try not to put too much weight in fielding stats, because I still think Wright plays a decent 3rd base, but even just watching him sometimes you get the feeling he trys to do too much and needs to slow it down a little. But, aside from my ameture scouting analysis, David is also older than Reyes although without any injury history.
I would love to see both Wright and Reyes stay with the Mets for a long time, and although I have no idea what kind of financial situation that would put the team in the future, it already looks like that may not be possible. Both had stellar seasons through 2005-2008 that have endeared them to us as fans and made them very valuable to any team. Each of them also has the ability to get back to their earlier success, although it is hard to tell which one will get there first if ever. I also don't know what kind of trades would be possible for either player, but they would definately be able to bring back some top level talent. So who would be the better player to trade and give the other a long extension? (There is no Keep them both answer. I want to see who people would trade with their backs against the wall)
P.S. I have been a reader of AA for about a year now, and this is my first post so any comments are welcome. Also I'd like to thank the writers on this site for getting me to think logically about baseball and the Mets in particular. When I go back to some other sites like Mets.com from time to time, I have to laugh at some of the comments and mailbag questions that are posted.
This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.
36 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I'm surprised I clicked Wright
"I only wanted a few things out of life -- a wife, children, to play baseball and to hunt deer." - Turk Wendell
None ...
How about an Orange Monster at Citi Field for Bay?
by Mets-Suns-Texans on Apr 27, 2011 3:02 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
This
I refuse to vote with the best option missing.
__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
by Russ on Apr 27, 2011 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
I'm not voting either.
traveling photoshooper.
lobbying for a rec/9 sabermetric stat.
i hate shane victorino more than anyone else.
sparbz.com
@sparbz
by sparbz on Apr 27, 2011 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed
Your options suck!
_______________________________________________
$100 to CARE per No-No and $1 per David Wright Homer.
by ScottfromPeekskill on Apr 27, 2011 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Same
Not choosing either of them, don’t even ****ing ask about both
Elected to abstain
for said lack of sane options.
"Intelligence is not a genetic predisposition. Think stupid!!"
by Wright of passage on Apr 29, 2011 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Myself as well.
"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."
by BobbyV_Incognito on Apr 29, 2011 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Obviously the decision should be to trade the French part of the coeur.
Even without Alderson leading the team however the chances of tem staying Mets were slim to none.
The premises of this post has been commented on this site several times. The money coming off the books after this year ($45m-60m ish) is enough to sign Reyes, even if the payroll is reduced next year.
In lobby for: Jaime Cevallos, Zack Lutz, orange unis and Rickroll as the 7th inning song.
The Unwritten Rules of AA
What would you be willing to give Reyes, in dollars and years?
by Brian Singer on Apr 27, 2011 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions
A salary starting at $15 million or so is reasonable, and does not stretch the budget to unsustainable levels.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Apr 28, 2011 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions
If you've got $15MM budgeted for any of the initial years
his deal is likely going to be of the Omar-esque backloaded variety. Unfortunately I’d say its a sane thing to reasonably expect Reyes’ deal to be within the Crawford $146MM neighborhood for annual compensation averages. Years I have no idea for the many variables though.
"Intelligence is not a genetic predisposition. Think stupid!!"
by Wright of passage on Apr 29, 2011 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions
The $15 million dollar level is the starting point
If Reyes was given a similar deal, where Crawford’s maximum payday is backloaded to 2017, when he’ll be making $21 million (up $7 million from the initial $14 million he’s making in 2011), I’d want the money more evenly spread in the middle.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Apr 30, 2011 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions
I picked Wright
I figure with Flores and Aderlin in the minors it would be easier to replace a 3B than a SS, plus Reyes is better suited for Citi Field.
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
by Bobby Baseball on Apr 27, 2011 3:30 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Why isn't there a "neither" option?
traveling photoshooper.
lobbying for a rec/9 sabermetric stat.
i hate shane victorino more than anyone else.
sparbz.com
@sparbz
How about an "Englewood Jack if either get moved" option?
__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
by Russ on Apr 27, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
But regarding both of them:
Well lets forget about any intangibles that make him a leader, because we can’t project how they will help us win games.
A General Manager has a much larger job than just ensuring the team wins. That may be his largest goal, but those “intangibles” you speak of are huge reasons why there are still fans in the seats. David Wright, as you say, IS the face of the franchise. You can forget any female fans under the age of 30 going to CitiField if you get rid of him, and frankly I’d have to question Sandy Alderson’s common sense.
But popularity doesn’t win games either and if his place on the team were solely for selling tickets because the fans like him, I would have to say that winning more games would sell more tickets than David’s smiling face any day.
I don’t see why you can’t do both? There’s more than one way to build a franchise, and although moving Wright and/or Reyes “for the future” is a possibility, it would most certainly not be the most popular one. They’re still young enough to build a team around… It’s not like the Phillies, who over $110 Million to players over the age of 31 for next season.
traveling photoshooper.
lobbying for a rec/9 sabermetric stat.
i hate shane victorino more than anyone else.
sparbz.com
@sparbz
I agree with you actually,
Maybe my choice of words isn’t the best, but I do think they can win with Reyes and Wright. Although Alderson has said a couple of times that a player’s popularity and marketability definitely come into consideration he has also said that no player is untouchable. For the purpose of this post I guess I was saying that popularity should not be as important as talent. So to further ellaborate on my poll question, if you were forced to trade someone in return for a boatload of prospects, who would it be.
Personally I’d like to see them both be with the team for a long time, and both of them are popular players of course, but I think I’d trade Wright because it seems easier to replace a slugging third baseman with ok defense than a shortstop of Reyes’ skillset.
Maybe I should have just left out that first part about Wright
by crazycarLUXC on Apr 27, 2011 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I mean I see where you're coming from
And I apologize for being bitter and having a semi-angry connotation to my writing in that post, but to me Wright and Reyes are a big part of my identity as a Mets fan. I’m 20 years old, I was fortunate enough to attend the 1999 Wild Card game as an 8 year old and multiple games from the 1999 NLDS, 2000 NLDS and 2000 NLCS. The Todd Pratt walk-off over center field, the Benny Agbayani shot into the right field loge… The famous Robin Ventura Grand-Single. I was at those games, they’re embedded into my memory forever, and they’re what catalyzed my experience as a die-hard New York Mets fan.
But 2001-2004 were tough. While watching Barry Bonds break the home run record as a 5th grader, the biggest news I got for the Mets was this young Dominican stud down in the minor leagues named Jose Reyes. “The kid could be the next A-Rod” my Dad exclaimed to me. Ever since I heard those words, I’ve had an unreasonable affection towards Jose Reyes. Then David Wright came up and replaced Ty Wigginton at first base. I remember sitting at my late grandmother’s house watching the game on her sub-par 32" tube television… “Who’s this Wright guy? Where’s Ty Wigginton?” Little did I know of David Wright besides my younger sister’s goo-goo ga-ga crush on him (that she still has to this day at 16 years old), but he gradually became an instant favorite in my heart. Between Jose Reyes’s unbelievably exciting play and David Wright’s knack for smacking the ball, these two players rose to a place inside my reserved for “untouchables.”
At this point, if either of them were to be moved, I would be brought to tears. Instantly. I’d have no other reaction, and the sadness that could overtake my body would be overwhelming. Sounds drastic? Try asking fans how they felt when Seaver was traded. I’m sure this invoke some of the very same feelings in my generation of fans.
traveling photoshooper.
lobbying for a rec/9 sabermetric stat.
i hate shane victorino more than anyone else.
sparbz.com
@sparbz
by sparbz on Apr 27, 2011 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
also that was my 2.500th comment!
traveling photoshooper.
i hate shane victorino more than anyone else.
why i refuse to support reyes or wright's departure | k counter tutorials: part 1 part 2
sparbz.com
@sparbz
Back story of your fandom for a milestone comment?
Well done.
Now, kids, being eaten by a crocodile is just like going to sleep; in giant blender.
Not planned, must be... FATE!
traveling photoshooper.
i hate shane victorino more than anyone else.
why i refuse to support reyes's or wright's departure | k counter tutorials: part 1 part 2
sparbz.com
@sparbz
Agreed all around
It would be like a dagger to the heart, the Midnight Massacre all over again, every bad trade made in Mets History replayed before our eyes
"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage
by blueandorange4life on Apr 27, 2011 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions
If one of the two absolutely had to be traded, no ifs, ands, or buts about it,
I’d trade Reyes. Looking at contracts only, Reyes’ is about to expire, while Wright’s extends a few more years at a market-friendly amount. Reyes seems to be very peak and valley-ish, because of his injury problems over the last two years or so, and his value is at a high point right now, meaning he’d bring back a better return, whereas Wright has been flatline declining a bit lately.
In the real world, though, both stay Mets for their entire careers.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Apr 27, 2011 4:59 PM EDT reply actions
I want them to both retire as Mets lifers
But if I were forced to decide…Wright is probably more replaceable at this point in his career, both in general (there are more mediocre-fielding sluggers than sweet-swinging shortstops) and specifically to the Mets (since we have good organizational depth at 3B). Of course, Wright also has more trade value, with the additional time left on his contract.
If you put a gun to my head and told me I had to trade one or the other
you would have to shoot me, because I wouldn’t do it.
"Everything's gonna be awesome." -Ken Oberkfell
"ARSHAVIN IS MAGIC" -Brooks Peck
by Thomas Wachtel on Apr 28, 2011 10:40 PM EDT reply actions 5 recs
I renounce here my right to vote
I refuse to be forced to choose!
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
Keith
Note: All links within my sig will open in a new window.
AVP: The Showdown
Friday, 4.29.11 7:05 PM EDT
* sj10689 is a proud member of SKFCOA
Write-in ballot
Poll
Who would you rather trade for the future?
[ ] David Wright
[ ] Jose Reyes
[ ] Trade them both! The future is now!!!
[X] Other: DAN WARTHEN
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
Keith
Note: All links within my sig will open in a new window.
AVP: The Showdown
Friday, 4.29.11 7:05 PM EDT
* sj10689 is a proud member of SKFCOA
you mean Wright in ballot :)
fire dan Warthen totally.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Apr 29, 2011 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Can we get a "flag" category for "flamebait"?
Due to a virgin birth, his mother never loved him :'( but it didn't matter because his friends were there for him. For One thousand Years he laid dormant until the white sox discovered his frozen body in the jungles of Mexico.
You people should be ashamed of yourselves
for even voting.
One day, this team is going to kill me.
by fxcarden on Apr 29, 2011 4:18 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Something that I haven't read or heard yet regarding a Reyes deal
is a potential biproduct of the fallout from a Reyes trade actually happening. That biproduct being the added difficulty we might find in extending Wright in the face of such a detrimentally short term move. Not that anything Wright has said or publicly portrayed has inspired this thinking but its entirely possible that Wright’s views of the end of 2013 might get torqued into an escape to a contender versus the current optimism that he perpetually eminates.
One could immediately argue that the money will be too much for him to even consider other options but taking away his beloved colleague of nearly 10+ professional seasons can’t help that decision. Especially if the likely scenario arises where his agent buzzes in his ear about potentially comparable suitors with stronger post season capabilites following his walk year.
In the end so many bad things come from not keeping Reyes and Wright in the same sandbox in the short term that the likelihood of potential from the returns have to significantly outweigh the fallout. This is a burden that I don’t think can be overlooked on the negotiation table and I believe this could potentially force the hand to sign Reyes. Call it deranged fan sentiment that this is derived from but if Wright is potentially viewed as having a foul after taste post Reyes deal and his extension potential diminishes, I wouldn’t be suprised in the least that he too gets fielded in trade talks the same way Reyes possibly does.
In the unlikely scenario where we slough off Bay’s deal and K-Rod’s option doesn’t vest then all the loose change makes locking up Reyes in Met pinstripes that much better. All the more reason to press the issue of moving Bay’s deal and doing everything short of going Tonya Harding on K-Rod’s ass.
"Intelligence is not a genetic predisposition. Think stupid!!"
by Wright of passage on Apr 29, 2011 8:01 PM EDT reply actions
No & No.
It makes little to no sense trading Reyes (or Wright for that matter too).
Sure, neither of them is Troy Tulowitzki or Albert Pujols, i.e. a true superstar.
However, both are well above average homegrown players very close to “star” level in a normal season and both are 28 years old and thus likely to remain reasonably productive at least over the next 5 years. If Ike Davis can take a significant step forward and emerge as an annual .280 BA, .370 OBP, .500 SLG type of 1bman with Gold Glove defense at 1b, that´s a very, very nice homegrown threesome in their primes for quite some time going forward.
That said, I very much expect Reyes to get something like a 6-year, 108 mio $ contract this winter if he posts numbers like these, very much within his capabilities:
.300 BA, .350 OBP, .450 SLG, 35 SB, 10 HR and 600 PA
That´s top 5 overall in Baseball production at SS, maybe even top 3.
Sure, it´s a major contract at 18 mio $ per year – however we´re talking a SS with elite production for that position.
Because the alternative is naming Ruben Tejada the SS and expecing production like this going forward – if all goes well and certainly not guaranteed or highly likely:
.270 BA, .320 OBP, .350 SLG, 15 SB, 5 HR
That´d be a pretty decent almost league average SS and we get to save 17.5 mio $ to spend elsewhere. However – where should that money be spent realistically and how do you upgrade elsewhere to replace the massive loss in SS production ? 1b, 3b and LF are set at the very least. CF and C as well if we consider Pagan and Thole as viable options there going forward. And even if not, what are the odds the Mets suddenly find an elite CF with an annual OPS of .850 to make up the loss of Reyes by upgrading Pagan ? Or an .850 OPS C to make up for the loss of Reyes by upgrading Thole ?
The Mets may already struggle to find an adequate replacement RF for Beltran, assuming he takes his cranky knees to the AL after the season. And assuming we´re talking about .825ish production from Beltran in 2011. Sure, Fernando Martinez or Kirk Nieuwenhuis may get their chance in 2012 if they produce in 2011 at AAA. However, an .825 OPS probably is the absolute ceiling one may be able to expect from them.
On the free agent market, there don´t seem to be many big bats available – save for Prince Fielder who´ll probably also get 18+ mio $ from someone but who is a poor fit for the Mets with Ike Davis a much better defender at 1b, younger and maybe not that far away from Prince offensively anymore either at a small fraction of the cost. Overall, signing Fielder to play 1b and maybe shifting Davis to RF probably makes up for the loss in offensive production from Beltran & Reyes with Tejada in at SS.
However, the defense is also severely weakened with Davis in RF vs. Beltran and Fielder at 1b vs. Davis.
All in all, realistically, re-signing Jose Reyes is an ABSOLUTE must if this team is to contend in 2012 or 2013. Which seems feasible if the team finally gets some re-inforcements for their pitching staff with high upside over the next year or two. Or at least can use prospects with that profile to acquire pitchers who can make the difference.
If one believes the team is so terrible that there´s no chance for that happening, you might as well go ahead and trade EVERYONE except for maybe Ike Davis, Jonathon Niese and Josh Thole and start from scratch and start building for 2014 or 2015.
Since we´ve essentially been secretely rebuilding since early / mid 2009, I don´t think the patience of anyone will last that long. When is the last time the Mets traded a prospect of any sort of meaningful value ? Mike Carp and Maikel Cleto in the JJ Putz deal in Dec. 2008 ?

by 
































