Saber-stat Series Preview: Mets vs. Cubs

5751185637_66a75ea4b1_b_medium

(click to embiggen)

Tonight, the Mets (22-24, 6.5 GB) start a three-game road series against the Chicago Cubs (20-25, 7GB). The Mets are coming off a one for three performance against the cross-town Yankees. Similarly, the Cubs dropped two of three to the Red Sox over the weekend.

Well, well. What do we have here? A team whose pitching might be worse than the Mets? To some extent, yes. The Cubs staff has given up a ton of runs (226), third worst in all of baseball. The Mets staff has put up a better tERA and has done a good job of stranding runners. However, the Cubs do a better job of controlling those parts of the game they can (K's, BB's, HR's). This series the Mets will send surging Jon Neise, Dillon Gee, and R.A. Dickey to the hill. The Cubs counter with Ryan Dempster, Casey Coleman, and Doug Davis.

 

Offensively, the Cubs have been a bit better than the Mets. Although runs scored, wOBA, etc, are pretty much even, the Cubs have hit a lot more line drives and home runs per fly ball. Part of the reason the Cubs haven't scored that many more runs than the Mets is that New York has capitalized more with the long ball.

The Mets are first in the league in terms of their percent of home runs hit with men on base (51%). The Cubs rank twelfth (39%). As a result, the Mets have derived 6% more of their runs via home runs than the Cubs. 

This also means the Cubs are finding more ways to score than the Mets. The Mets are only hitting 6.6% of their fly balls for home runs on the road this year, but the Cubs staff has a HR/FB of 11% at home.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Amazin' Avenue

You must be a member of Amazin' Avenue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Amazin' Avenue. You should read them.

Join Amazin' Avenue

You must be a member of Amazin' Avenue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Amazin' Avenue. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker