Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Veterans Share Their Favorite Sports Memories

You Know, The Mets' Offense Isn't Half Bad

5684803368_937694de62_b_medium

(click to embiggen)

Ever since Sandy Alderson and company took residence in the Mets' front office people have questioned their strategy of passing on free-agent position players. The claim was that the Mets' anemic offenses of the past few years where largely the result of very talented players wasting away on the disabled list. With many of these players healthy and playing for a full season, the offense should naturally rebound without the help of pricey free-agents.

So how's that strategy working out for the Mets? Pretty good, actually. Through April, the Mets have managed to score the 12th most runs in all of baseball and 7th most in the NL--scoring only two fewer runs than the Phillies

The visual above lists all regular position players in the NL East (>=60 plate appearances) and their weighted on-base average (wOBA) through April. The bars are color coded relative to the player's team. When you look at it this way it's pretty clear that Met position players stacked up pretty well against their NL East counterparts during the first month. Next to the Phillies, the Mets have the most position players with above average wOBA's within the division. 

The problem so far this year was ironically the team's greatest strength last year--pitching.

Star-divide

Last year, the Mets staff posted a fantastic 652 runs against, 8th best in baseball and 6th best in the NL. This year, the pitching has been the achilles heel, giving up the 8th most runs in baseball.

Even with the spector of John Santana returning to the mound it's pretty hard to imagine this rotation being anything other than average this year. Big Pelf seems to be back to his inconsistent ways. RA Dickey has come down from his career year last year and isn't likely to improve all that much. And while Chris Young has shown an uncanny ability to flumox hitters with an 83 mph fastball we really can't expect him to continue to limit oppossing hitters to a .163 batting average on balls in play.

In the grand scheme of things this may be the best scenario Met fans could have asked for (beyond, you know, being a contending team). The Mets will be able to move some of their pricey offensive players by the trade deadline, hopefully allowing them to restock on young arms. Of course, I don't know who would have predicted that last year's staff would end up putting together as fine a year as they did. Maybe there is hope after all.

-------------

Bill Petti is a regular columnist at Beyond the Box Score and an occasional contributor to Amazin' Avenue. He can also be found on Twitter at @BillPetti.

Comment 42 comments  |  3 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

Do you think the offense production will be sustainable?

No only Ike’s but Beltran and Murphy also.

For now, some other guys like Werth, McCann and Uggla also seem to be underperforming relative to their expected production.

In lobby for: Jaime Cevallos, Zack Lutz, orange unis and Rickroll as the 7th inning song.
The Unwritten Rules of AA

by Michkin on May 4, 2011 12:31 PM EDT reply actions  

I don't think all of it is sustainable personally

Ike is probably due to regress a little, but its not like he’s going to bottom out to Alex Cora levels or something. Also, I would expect to get much better contributions from Pagan by the end of the year and Wright will probably pick it up a little bit. Add in the fact that Bay will be playing consistently I think the overall production of the offense is likely to increase slightly as the year goes on.

by Balagast on May 4, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think they'll be a top-10 offense all season, necessarily...

…both because of a natural regression for some players and, frankly, I don’t expect all these guys to be around through September.

That being said, Murphy is your #1 candidate to cool off, but Wright and Reyes have room to improve. If healthy, Beltran’s .366 wOBA is not unrealistic. Ike is the big question mark—I don’t know if he’s a .400+ guy, but my guess is he’ll be better than last year. You also don’t see Bay on this list. My guess is he’ll post better numbers than last year—hard to imagine he wouldn’t—and that will help make up some of the difference when others cool down.

by Bill Petti on May 4, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is a pretty good lineup

I’ve thought so since things began shaping up during the off-season. Considering the fact that Thole has been scuffling and CF has been a weak spot so far, I actually think they can take it up a notch. If you look at this lineup top-to-bottom, there really isn’t a glaring weakness.

If they can get any sort of sustained pitching, they will be fine.

by dcmetsfan on May 4, 2011 12:34 PM EDT reply actions  

By team, OPS overall and w/ RISP

OVERALL
Florida – .729
METS – .719
Philadelphia – .716
Atlanta – .681
Washington – .648

w/ RISP
Atlanta – .897 (.338 avg)
Florida – .758 (.269 avg)
Philadelphia – .717 (.263 avg)
METS – .687 (.228 avg)
Washington – .672 (.220 avg)

(hits take on greater value vs. walks with RISP)

If you’re the sort of person who thinks this kind of thing flattens out, look for the Bravos to decline — maybe dramatically. And maybe we’ll score even MORE runzzz!

by tmu on May 4, 2011 12:37 PM EDT reply actions  

so.....

OPS is basically the same for the mets. I’m not sure a 32 pt difference in OPS a month into the season is statistically significant.

by Mike Clemente on May 4, 2011 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd be curious to see a similar comparison for pitching

It might be painful to look at from a Mets prospective, but it would be interesting none the less.

by Balagast on May 4, 2011 1:04 PM EDT reply actions  

not to be obnoxious or anything

But this is kind of a “Captain Obvious” post. Other than Chris Young, has anyone met or exceeded expectations on the pitching staff?

Meanwhile, Davis is raking like and MVP. Reyes and Beltran of old are back, and Wright isn’t doing great yet, he’s also not doing poorly. The only lineup disappointment so far has been Pagan.

Mark Cuban for owner! Save us from the Wilpons!

by Greenpoint Ian on May 4, 2011 1:06 PM EDT reply actions  

What do you mean "anymore?"

When were things ever obvious with the Mets?

__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden

by Russ on May 4, 2011 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

You can say this about most things we write about

Not everything is a profound insight into the inner mysteries of baseball. Frankly, most sabermetric analysis is really just a statistical representation of what we basically know already. I like these sorts of things because it crystallizes our intuitions.

And before others jump on me, not ALL sabermetric analysis (or any type of analysis for that matter) explains the obvious, but in the end I think most analysis of any kind is a confirmation of things already suspected.

by dcmetsfan on May 4, 2011 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

right

Like I said, I’m not trying to be obnoxious and the charts is really excellent (it’s nice to know that my suspicion that Ike has been hitting like an MVP is accurate).

I’m just saying that the more succint version of this post is “Mets hitting = WIN, Mets pitching = FAIL”

Mark Cuban for owner! Save us from the Wilpons!

by Greenpoint Ian on May 4, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

This charts says

Victorino > Wright, Beltran and Murphy

how is that even possible ?

One day, this team is going to kill me.

by fxcarden on May 4, 2011 1:11 PM EDT reply actions  

I forgot the sarcasm font.

hope you realize that

One day, this team is going to kill me.

by fxcarden on May 4, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah it also says

placido polanco = ike davis

I LIKE IKE!

by astromets on May 4, 2011 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well

it could be cause of this

What's that about?

by Brian. on May 4, 2011 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I hate ESPN:The Magazine

and most of the rest of ESPN.

by tmu on May 4, 2011 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I swear there is like 1 good page in that whole magazine.

It’s almost always about some advanced stat. It’s called “Play MLB”. The newest issue’s edition was abut how baseball is entrenched in it’s definition of bullpen roles even though it’s not the best way to use the players.

Save Jenrry Mejia!

by Ogre39666 on May 5, 2011 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

No depth

The top six in the line are impressive. Paulino was lights out against the Phillies. After that there is nothing. Thole has regressed, Pagan needs a reboot, and the rest of the bench is dreadful. Chin-ling Hu with his .071 batting average coming up with bases loaded. I would rather have seen Chris Young. Hairston can’t hit or field. Harris is marginal and Turner and Pridie seem overmatched. It is amazing the Ike is hitting so well with nothing behind him.

by duffer50 on May 4, 2011 3:53 PM EDT reply actions  

But

how many lineups in MLB are 8-9 deep though?

What's that about?

by Brian. on May 4, 2011 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

This

Now, kids, being eaten by a crocodile is just like going to sleep; in giant blender.

by meigs1414 on May 4, 2011 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

You're crazy

if you think Chris Young is a better hitter than Hu. He is pretty shitty, but it’s only 16 PA, and how good do your need your backup MI/defensive specialist to be? Thole hasn’t regressed, either. Man, I just reread your post and you need to relax. None of these guys even have 100 PA’s yet. Can’t we wait until the end of May to decide whether or not our guys can play in the majors? geez

I guess I’d probably dump Hairston for Evans, but the team won’t get rid of Hairston because he can “play” CF and for some reason refuse to let Beltran play there at all. I don’t know what other moves could be made.

Kicking knowledge in the face.

by BlackOps on May 5, 2011 6:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

No one thought this way:

“Ever since Sandy Alderson and company took residence in the Mets’ front office people have questioned their strategy of passing on free-agent position players. The claim was that the Mets’ anemic offenses of the past few years where largely the result of very talented players wasting away on the disabled list. With many of these players healthy and playing for a full season, the offense should naturally rebound without the help of pricey free-agents.”

Everyone knew the Mets weren’t going after free agents because the Wilpons are in deep financial trouble.

by Brian Singer on May 6, 2011 1:26 AM EDT reply actions  

Really?

I thought it had a lot to do with being close to their max payroll, and a lack of attractive options on the FA market.

"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."

by BobbyV_Incognito on May 6, 2011 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

And furthermore, who were we going after?

Coming into the season, first (Ike), short (Jose), third (Dubs), left (Bay), center (Pagan), and right (Voltron) were all taken. None of those guys were going anywhere so there guys like Werth and Crawford were of no use. And there were no attractive options at second or catcher who provided more upside than Murphy/Emaus and Thole, so who were we signing there? Finally, Pelfrey, Niese and Dickey were guaranteed spots in the rotation, and I think most people expected Johan to only miss a few weeks, so there was no reason to try and reconstruct the rotation for 2011 and beyond.

by Evan_S on May 9, 2011 2:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

no, it's more than half bad

i question the knowledge and ability of collins to run an offense. for example, and this is one of many, last night reyes on first, none out, 2-1 count on murphy, righty pitcher – what do you do? HIT AND RUN. be aggressive, get reyes in motion, you have a contact hitter up. what does collins do? sac bunt. are you kidding me? this is not the first time either. his misuse of daniel murphy so far is confusing at best.

i do like how he’s more willing to stick with relief pitchers longer if they’re being successful, something randolph/manuel were not willing to do at great cost. but offensively i think he’s confused of the fundamentals. unless of course he’s not making these calls.

Shoot the puck Barry!!!

by dsteak on May 8, 2011 1:08 PM EDT reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Madmen_icon_small
Daniel Murphy And Empty Batting Averages
Gary_carter_small
fxcarden's Nightly Rant! - Vol. I, No. 2 (August, 2011)
Small
A projection of the rest of 2012 using two key stats
Gary_carter_small
fxcarden's Nightly Rant! - Vol. I, No. 1 (July, 2011)
159714144_040c6c1501_small
The Greatest Bison: Frank Grant and the Color Line

Recent FanPosts

Img_1435_small
This Week in Mets Quotes
Small
Game Replays
Small
Santana or Sabathia?
Small
Whats to be done with the 'Pen?
Small
What about Oswalt?
61atehunexl__sl500_aa300__small
This Week in Mets' Overreaction

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recommended FanShots

A WIN METHOD (TM) PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT

These guys are playing hardball. Ok, we must all mobilize, everybody... you do realize, this means WAR!

(Click here to embiggen)
At 5:30 PM EDT today Starting today at 5:00 PM EDT, witness one of the greatest renderings of visual sound effects ever!

UPDATE 1: My browser has crashed several times in the process from all the rants (FUUUUUUUUUUUU!!!!) - as a result, there will instead be 4 or 5 separate installments of fxcarden's Nightly Rants! from 2011, with a similar pattern for the 2012 rants. Take my word for it, when I say that it's for the best. Here's the revised schedule:

Volume 1: 2011
No. 1: Today at 5:00 PM EDT
No. 2: Tomorrow
No. 3: Thursday
No. 4 and No. 5 (?) TBD

UPDATE 2: Vol. I, No. 1 (July, 2011) is now up!
beeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeautiful colorization of Willie Mays' over-the-shoulder catch. Credit from Beyond the Box Score via Reddit. Embiggen at http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7071/7231074678_3faa94a82b_o.jpg
Frank Francisco is... The Most Interesting Closer In The World embiggen
2013 ALL-STAR GAME(TM) LOGO CONTEST

Major League Baseball has formally announced that Citi Field will be the site of the 2013 All-Star Game. (see video) In light of this, I have decided to launch an All-Star Game logo contest. To help get you started, I provided all of you with a sample All-Star Game logo. (click here to embiggen) If you wish to participate, please enter your submission with an image below, in the comments section. The contest ends on May 31st. I will choose a select number of finalists, and the community will vote on which of those logos is the best one.

Can you create a better logo than the sample logo provided? Then, give it a shot. Good luck to all participants!

Recent FanShots

Quick question regarding ISO
3 "Gap" HRs
Beacon makes it official: No Ottawa EL team in 2013
As Memorial Day Nears, a Single Image Continues to Haunt - New York Times
John Maine signs a minor league deal with the Yankees
Indians Reliever Joe Smith Was Forced To Retreat Because No One Summoned Him From The Bullpen
Marlins looking to trade for outfielder to replace Bonifacio
Ike will not be demoted
Mocking the MLB draft

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

Yahoo_full_count

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Madmen_icon_small
Daniel Murphy And Empty Batting Averages
Gary_carter_small
fxcarden's Nightly Rant! - Vol. I, No. 2 (August, 2011)
Small
A projection of the rest of 2012 using two key stats
Gary_carter_small
fxcarden's Nightly Rant! - Vol. I, No. 1 (July, 2011)
159714144_040c6c1501_small
The Greatest Bison: Frank Grant and the Color Line

Recent FanPosts

Img_1435_small
This Week in Mets Quotes
Small
Game Replays
Small
Santana or Sabathia?
Small
Whats to be done with the 'Pen?
Small
What about Oswalt?
61atehunexl__sl500_aa300__small
This Week in Mets' Overreaction

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >


THE BIG GUY

Aa_avatar_small Eric Simon

THE INCREDIBLES

Blackfish2_small Alex Nelson

Endy_small Rob Castellano

Img_1262_small Matthew Artus

Kanye_pekka_small Sam Page

Best_infield_ever_small James Kannengieser

Metsstitches_small Eno Sarris

48900_1085732804_4466_n_small Chris McShane

Lg_rocker_ap_small Matthew Callan

Billy_and_daddy_4th_of_july_small Bill Petti

THE NEWS GURUS

Mrmet_small Steve Schreiber

3_small Stephen Schmidt

159714144_040c6c1501_small Pack Bringley

124967042_crop_340x234_small Jeffrey Paternostro