You Know, The Mets' Offense Isn't Half Bad

Ever since Sandy Alderson and company took residence in the Mets' front office people have questioned their strategy of passing on free-agent position players. The claim was that the Mets' anemic offenses of the past few years where largely the result of very talented players wasting away on the disabled list. With many of these players healthy and playing for a full season, the offense should naturally rebound without the help of pricey free-agents.
So how's that strategy working out for the Mets? Pretty good, actually. Through April, the Mets have managed to score the 12th most runs in all of baseball and 7th most in the NL--scoring only two fewer runs than the Phillies.
The visual above lists all regular position players in the NL East (>=60 plate appearances) and their weighted on-base average (wOBA) through April. The bars are color coded relative to the player's team. When you look at it this way it's pretty clear that Met position players stacked up pretty well against their NL East counterparts during the first month. Next to the Phillies, the Mets have the most position players with above average wOBA's within the division.
The problem so far this year was ironically the team's greatest strength last year--pitching.
Last year, the Mets staff posted a fantastic 652 runs against, 8th best in baseball and 6th best in the NL. This year, the pitching has been the achilles heel, giving up the 8th most runs in baseball.
Even with the spector of John Santana returning to the mound it's pretty hard to imagine this rotation being anything other than average this year. Big Pelf seems to be back to his inconsistent ways. RA Dickey has come down from his career year last year and isn't likely to improve all that much. And while Chris Young has shown an uncanny ability to flumox hitters with an 83 mph fastball we really can't expect him to continue to limit oppossing hitters to a .163 batting average on balls in play.
In the grand scheme of things this may be the best scenario Met fans could have asked for (beyond, you know, being a contending team). The Mets will be able to move some of their pricey offensive players by the trade deadline, hopefully allowing them to restock on young arms. Of course, I don't know who would have predicted that last year's staff would end up putting together as fine a year as they did. Maybe there is hope after all.
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Bill Petti is a regular columnist at Beyond the Box Score and an occasional contributor to Amazin' Avenue. He can also be found on Twitter at @BillPetti.
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Do you think the offense production will be sustainable?
No only Ike’s but Beltran and Murphy also.
For now, some other guys like Werth, McCann and Uggla also seem to be underperforming relative to their expected production.
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I don't think all of it is sustainable personally
Ike is probably due to regress a little, but its not like he’s going to bottom out to Alex Cora levels or something. Also, I would expect to get much better contributions from Pagan by the end of the year and Wright will probably pick it up a little bit. Add in the fact that Bay will be playing consistently I think the overall production of the offense is likely to increase slightly as the year goes on.
I don't think they'll be a top-10 offense all season, necessarily...
…both because of a natural regression for some players and, frankly, I don’t expect all these guys to be around through September.
That being said, Murphy is your #1 candidate to cool off, but Wright and Reyes have room to improve. If healthy, Beltran’s .366 wOBA is not unrealistic. Ike is the big question mark—I don’t know if he’s a .400+ guy, but my guess is he’ll be better than last year. You also don’t see Bay on this list. My guess is he’ll post better numbers than last year—hard to imagine he wouldn’t—and that will help make up some of the difference when others cool down.
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This is a pretty good lineup
I’ve thought so since things began shaping up during the off-season. Considering the fact that Thole has been scuffling and CF has been a weak spot so far, I actually think they can take it up a notch. If you look at this lineup top-to-bottom, there really isn’t a glaring weakness.
If they can get any sort of sustained pitching, they will be fine.
By team, OPS overall and w/ RISP
OVERALL
Florida – .729
METS – .719
Philadelphia – .716
Atlanta – .681
Washington – .648
w/ RISP
Atlanta – .897 (.338 avg)
Florida – .758 (.269 avg)
Philadelphia – .717 (.263 avg)
METS – .687 (.228 avg)
Washington – .672 (.220 avg)
(hits take on greater value vs. walks with RISP)
If you’re the sort of person who thinks this kind of thing flattens out, look for the Bravos to decline — maybe dramatically. And maybe we’ll score even MORE runzzz!
so.....
OPS is basically the same for the mets. I’m not sure a 32 pt difference in OPS a month into the season is statistically significant.
by Mike Clemente on May 4, 2011 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
actually i'd like to see w/o RISP and w/RISP as a comparison
by Mike Clemente on May 4, 2011 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
For what it's worth
We’re the only team in the division that drops off w/ RISP.
by tmu on May 4, 2011 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd be curious to see a similar comparison for pitching
It might be painful to look at from a Mets prospective, but it would be interesting none the less.
I used FIP
I posted it yesterday.
Columnist at Beyond the Box Score. Occasional contributor at Amazin' Avenue.
not to be obnoxious or anything
But this is kind of a “Captain Obvious” post. Other than Chris Young, has anyone met or exceeded expectations on the pitching staff?
Meanwhile, Davis is raking like and MVP. Reyes and Beltran of old are back, and Wright isn’t doing great yet, he’s also not doing poorly. The only lineup disappointment so far has been Pagan.
Mark Cuban for owner! Save us from the Wilpons!
Is anything really obvious with the Mets anymore?
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What do you mean "anymore?"
When were things ever obvious with the Mets?
__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
You can say this about most things we write about
Not everything is a profound insight into the inner mysteries of baseball. Frankly, most sabermetric analysis is really just a statistical representation of what we basically know already. I like these sorts of things because it crystallizes our intuitions.
And before others jump on me, not ALL sabermetric analysis (or any type of analysis for that matter) explains the obvious, but in the end I think most analysis of any kind is a confirmation of things already suspected.
right
Like I said, I’m not trying to be obnoxious and the charts is really excellent (it’s nice to know that my suspicion that Ike has been hitting like an MVP is accurate).
I’m just saying that the more succint version of this post is “Mets hitting = WIN, Mets pitching = FAIL”
Mark Cuban for owner! Save us from the Wilpons!
by Greenpoint Ian on May 4, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
This charts says
Victorino > Wright, Beltran and Murphy
how is that even possible ?
One day, this team is going to kill me.
yeah it also says
placido polanco = ike davis
I LIKE IKE!
That's Hedley

__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
by Russ on May 4, 2011 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
I hate ESPN:The Magazine
and most of the rest of ESPN.
by tmu on May 4, 2011 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I swear there is like 1 good page in that whole magazine.
It’s almost always about some advanced stat. It’s called “Play MLB”. The newest issue’s edition was abut how baseball is entrenched in it’s definition of bullpen roles even though it’s not the best way to use the players.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
No depth
The top six in the line are impressive. Paulino was lights out against the Phillies. After that there is nothing. Thole has regressed, Pagan needs a reboot, and the rest of the bench is dreadful. Chin-ling Hu with his .071 batting average coming up with bases loaded. I would rather have seen Chris Young. Hairston can’t hit or field. Harris is marginal and Turner and Pridie seem overmatched. It is amazing the Ike is hitting so well with nothing behind him.
But
how many lineups in MLB are 8-9 deep though?
What's that about?
by Brian. on May 4, 2011 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You're crazy
if you think Chris Young is a better hitter than Hu. He is pretty shitty, but it’s only 16 PA, and how good do your need your backup MI/defensive specialist to be? Thole hasn’t regressed, either. Man, I just reread your post and you need to relax. None of these guys even have 100 PA’s yet. Can’t we wait until the end of May to decide whether or not our guys can play in the majors? geez
I guess I’d probably dump Hairston for Evans, but the team won’t get rid of Hairston because he can “play” CF and for some reason refuse to let Beltran play there at all. I don’t know what other moves could be made.
Kicking knowledge in the face.
No one thought this way:
“Ever since Sandy Alderson and company took residence in the Mets’ front office people have questioned their strategy of passing on free-agent position players. The claim was that the Mets’ anemic offenses of the past few years where largely the result of very talented players wasting away on the disabled list. With many of these players healthy and playing for a full season, the offense should naturally rebound without the help of pricey free-agents.”
Everyone knew the Mets weren’t going after free agents because the Wilpons are in deep financial trouble.
Really?
I thought it had a lot to do with being close to their max payroll, and a lack of attractive options on the FA market.
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by BobbyV_Incognito on May 6, 2011 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Not mention that full and now-healthy years from Reyes and Beltran does indeed naturally make this a better lineup.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
And furthermore, who were we going after?
Coming into the season, first (Ike), short (Jose), third (Dubs), left (Bay), center (Pagan), and right (Voltron) were all taken. None of those guys were going anywhere so there guys like Werth and Crawford were of no use. And there were no attractive options at second or catcher who provided more upside than Murphy/Emaus and Thole, so who were we signing there? Finally, Pelfrey, Niese and Dickey were guaranteed spots in the rotation, and I think most people expected Johan to only miss a few weeks, so there was no reason to try and reconstruct the rotation for 2011 and beyond.
no, it's more than half bad
i question the knowledge and ability of collins to run an offense. for example, and this is one of many, last night reyes on first, none out, 2-1 count on murphy, righty pitcher – what do you do? HIT AND RUN. be aggressive, get reyes in motion, you have a contact hitter up. what does collins do? sac bunt. are you kidding me? this is not the first time either. his misuse of daniel murphy so far is confusing at best.
i do like how he’s more willing to stick with relief pitchers longer if they’re being successful, something randolph/manuel were not willing to do at great cost. but offensively i think he’s confused of the fundamentals. unless of course he’s not making these calls.
Shoot the puck Barry!!!

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