Mets Player Performance Meter, Week 13

by Chris McShane on Jul 11, 2011 10:01 AM EDT

Because there can never be too many photos of R.A. Dickey. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

Despite injuries to their three best infielders, the Mets entered the All Star break a game above .500 and close enough to the Wild Card to keep things interesting for the at least the next few weeks. They'll almost certainly make some trades - the departure of Francisco Rodriguez seems inevitable - but probably won't be waving the white flag in doing so.

Stats below cover July 1 through July 10.

Player	Last Week	This Week	Comment
Manny Acosta			A surprisingly good week: 3 K, 1 BB, 0 runs. Acostalypse Later?
Jason Bay, LF			Bay hit a pair of home runs but then went back to looking like he has for most of his time with the Mets.
Pedro Beato, RP			4.2 innings without allowing an earned run, and he's in line for the higher leverage situations when the Mets inevitably trade Frankie Rodriguez.
Carlos Beltran, RF			.316/.422/.579 says it all. Another great week for one of the Mets' best position players of all time.
Taylor Buchholz, RP			We learned that Buchholz is dealing with depression and anxiety. Here's hoping he gets well soon.
Tim Byrdak, RP			With four more good appearances, he might net something of use at the trade deadline.
Chris Capuano, SP			He struggled a bit with control this week: six walks in twelve innings. Two starts of 3.00 ERA pitching is nothing to sneeze at, though.
D.J. Carrasco, RP			A truly meh week, as he didn't do anything great or awful.
Ike Davis, 1B			At least there's a shot he'll return this year.
R.A. Dickey, SP			Twelve more innings of great work by Dickey. His early-season struggles are far behind him.
Lucas Duda			Not a great week at the plate for Duda, and his home run power from Buffalo has not appeared in the big leagues.
Nick Evans			The invisible man finally got a hit and then hit a home run.
Dillon Gee, SP			He got roughed up a bit in two starts to the tune of a 6.39 ERA. He was due for some regression for a while so this shouldn't be too alarming.
Scott Hairston, OF			He didn't play much, but when he did play, he hit a huge home run off Brian Wilson.
Willie Harris, OF			Smallest sample size ever, but hey, a 1.667 OPS.
Jason Isringhausen, RP			No strikeouts in three innings of work, but he also didn't allow a run.
Fernando Martinez			A lone plate appearance before he was sent back to Buffalo.
Daniel Murphy, 2B			In the current lineup, Murphy's one of the team's better hitters. If everyone gets healthy, second base is his job to lose.
Jon Niese, SP			His 5.40 ERA over this span was inflated by Terry Collins' use of him out of the bullpen. He pitched quite well with 8.8 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in two starts and that relief apperance.
Angel Pagan, CF			He didn't do much at the plate, made a couple strange plays in center field, and had a pretty bad stretch. One highlight: 5 stolen bases without getting caught stealing.
Bobby Parnell, RP			6 K in 4.2 IP, no walks, and only one run allowed. Parnell looks like the team's next closer - assuming they don't abandon the concept of a closer - when Rodriguez is traded.
Ronny Paulino			As bas this week as he was good last week: .465 OPS sums it up.
Mike Pelfrey, SP			Big Pelf may not be exciting to watch pitch, but he threw twelve innings and got very good results, namely a 1.50 ERA.
Jason Pridie, CF			Only got to the plate three times and didn't get on base.
Jose Reyes, SS			He was still hitting in his six at-bats before his hamstring injury, but then there was the whole hamstring injury thing.
Francisco Rodriguez, RP			Rodriguez has been in fine form lately, and it'd be great for his trade value if he stays that way for a bit longer.
Ruben Tejada			He's not hitting much, but Tejada drew eight walks, good enough to have a .359 OBP despite only have a .194 average.
Josh Thole, C			Thole got fewer trips to the plate than Paulino but put up a .294/.400/.353 line. If he did that the rest of the way, he'd be a decent hitter for his position.
Justin Turner, 2B			Earlier this year, some may have preferred his bat to that of Murphy, but his .668 OPS lately serves as a reminder that Turner is still establishing himself at this level.
David Wright, 3B			Wright should be back sooner than later and would provide a huge boost, obviously. Or he'll destroy the clubhouse upon his return, if you're into that kind of thing.

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Comments

Wrongz and IsenHaur will ruin the teamz chemistry when they come bakc!

They are injured at the same time whjich means that Wrongz has infected IsenHaur with loozer-ness and noringz-ness which meanz that IsenHaur is a clubhouse cancer too now

by Shevshevy on Jul 11, 2011 10:23 AM EDT reply actions

"Acostalypse Later?"

Nice Chris McShane, very nice!

Bring back Wrongz!

__________________________________________________________________
Really good kid.A very good player.Not a superstar. #BlameWilponz. Never Forget

by ScottfromPeekskill on Jul 11, 2011 12:10 PM EDT reply actions

Sharpen your knives

Turner is clutch. I like him in the lineup toggling with Murphy, even though his R/L splits aren’t great. And we can’t be counting our chickens with any of our injured bobbers yet — Ike, especially, is still in the woods (near the henhouse.) Plenty of time before the Mets have to make a choice.

by tmu on Jul 11, 2011 12:16 PM EDT reply actions

so Turner is clutch? go on...

I LIKE IKE!

by astromets on Jul 11, 2011 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions

He's converted a lot fo his RBI opportunites

I’d ride it a little while before it starts to regress. Too black a box to ignore it altogether, is all I’m saying.

by tmu on Jul 11, 2011 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree

I have said I don’t think he is as bad as he is now or as good as he was before. His fangraphs ‘clutch’ score supports your idea too.

My quick thoughts – Dubs and Reyes return, move Murph to 1B because Duda is terrible and Tejada/Turner at 2B. If/when Ike returns, Tejada to AAA, Murph to majority 2B and make Turner more of a reserve

I LIKE IKE!

by astromets on Jul 11, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

that makes sense

I haven’t checked the defensive stats on Turner vs. Murph at second. That’s the only additional piece of info I’d want. I think that by the time Ike comes back (fingers crossed he actually does,) it’s likely Murph will have consolidated his advantage at the plate.

by tmu on Jul 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Annnnnnd. . . .

Unless I’m reading them incorrectly, the SSS fielding numbers say Murphy has been a better second baseman.

by tmu on Jul 11, 2011 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah

my problems with Murph defensively is that his arm is not a 3B’s arm, and he gets out of position sometimes. He hopefully wont be at 3B much longer, and positioning will come with time

I LIKE IKE!

by astromets on Jul 11, 2011 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh, I meant better than Turner at second

which surprised me a bit.

by tmu on Jul 11, 2011 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions

I know

but UZR/150 likes him at all 3 infield positions, and Turner not so much

I LIKE IKE!

by astromets on Jul 11, 2011 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Do not take into account half season of defensive data, it's basically all noise.

A few batted balls can skew a lot the numbers. It’s recommended to use 3 full seasons of UZR to gauge his defensive prowess. At this point, it’s better to rely on whatever scouting report available.

In lobby for: Jaime Cevallos, Zack Lutz, orange unis and Rickroll as the 7th inning song.
The Unwritten Rules of AA

by Michkin on Jul 11, 2011 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Then why, praytell

do we get excited about 81 games of WAR for a guy like McCutchen, who depends a lot on his defense for the boost over similar offensive performers. Seems like rewarding his fielding prowess is no more sensible than his RsBI

by tmu on Jul 11, 2011 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions

That's the problem with single season WAR, taking at face value a single season UZR.

Last year, he posted a -12.9 UZR/150 (over 1200 innings) and this year +14.4 UZR/150 (760 innings).

A Pirates’ fan who is following him more closely could give us some insights, but McCutchen’s scouting reports always indicated he was a very good defender (but good by how much?). So, based on the limited info we have now, I’d say he is in the +5 to +10 range, at least until he logs more innings or we get a more detailed scouting report.

In lobby for: Jaime Cevallos, Zack Lutz, orange unis and Rickroll as the 7th inning song.
The Unwritten Rules of AA

by Michkin on Jul 11, 2011 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah 3 full seasons of UZR

I have seen you post that 100 times, and you (or someone) also says that you can use UZR/150 to get an idea of in season success.

I realize it is not the best, but it is the best we have for now.

I LIKE IKE!

by astromets on Jul 11, 2011 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't agree with the usage of UZR/150 on such short sample.

A few batted balls can change drastically the results and the numbers can be misleading. tmu mentioned McCutchen. The guy went from -13 UZR/150 (full 2010) to 14 UZR/150 (half 2011). I’m not ready to say those numbers showed exactly his talent and/or contribution or that he suddenly improved 27 runs from one year to another.
The aggregated “Field” difference between Murphy and is Turner is 7.4 runs (4 v. -3.4). Out of the 600 or so innings Murphy played this year, 300 were at 1B, 160 at 3B and 160 and 2B. So, he played about 15% of a full season in 2B/3B and 30% in 1B. Turner played less than 500 innings (half in 2B/3B). Besides the small sample, there are different positional values, accounted separately from that 7.4 runs.

UZR calculation has some caveats, so we have to take the numbers with a grain-load of salt.

Quoting the UZR Primer

A player’s UZR does not necessarily tell you how he actually played just as it does not necessarily tell you what his true talent is. (…)
and that measurement is unambiguous, just because a player has a plus UZR does not mean that he necessarily played good defense – the same for a negative UZR. (…)
That is exactly what we are doing with UZR! UZR tries to record a player’s likely true talent and estimate his future performance based on the nuances of the batted ball and the player’s response to those nuances.

And finally, if you think I’ve been repeating this “100 times”, it’s because I think some numbers are being misch-used and, as the defensive stats primer say, it’s not that clear cut as the offensive linear stats.

Regarding the competition at 2B, I’d just go with the better bat. While some guys are still on the DL, keep playing them based on splits and on positional flexibility.

In lobby for: Jaime Cevallos, Zack Lutz, orange unis and Rickroll as the 7th inning song.
The Unwritten Rules of AA

by Michkin on Jul 11, 2011 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions

well, yeah to this

Regarding the competition at 2B, I’d just go with the better bat.

See, this is new. You posted the other line so many times but not this (at least that I have seen). I have not spent as much time looking at the defensive stats because when I was getting into SABR people said they were not great, so mostly I am just going off of what I get from you and others on this site, so thank you for being clearer.

I certainly don’t want to be misch-using stats, so tell me when I am wrong, misch-using or just being dumb – thanks

I LIKE IKE!

by astromets on Jul 11, 2011 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Isn't DRS basically a numerical scouting report?

by Evan_S on Jul 11, 2011 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions

DRS and UZR are really similar, with the same framework.

Comparison Between UZR and Plus/Minus

I guess DRS got that “scouting fame” because it was said they graded based on film reviews/computer studies, but the concept is the same (like those credits/debts, buckets of zones, splits adjustments, etc).

This is how they end up:

In lobby for: Jaime Cevallos, Zack Lutz, orange unis and Rickroll as the 7th inning song.
The Unwritten Rules of AA

by Michkin on Jul 11, 2011 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions

his arm is def strong enough for 3b, and I would argue its significantly stronger than wright

I’m not sure who is more inaccurate though…both are pretty bad.

by Mike Clemente on Jul 11, 2011 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions

not at all

he has to load up to throw it, which takes awhile, and he is neither that accurate or strong

I LIKE IKE!

by astromets on Jul 11, 2011 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Murph has always had awesome range

He’s been one of the best fielders on the team for a minute now, but you’ll never hear anyone say it.

by Mike Clemente on Jul 11, 2011 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions

You have to be joking about Murph's defense.Right?

by Putnan Prince on Jul 11, 2011 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions

He's not the most sure handed player

But he’s a very good fielder and has excellent range in the infield.

by Evan_S on Jul 11, 2011 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions

?no

I LIKE IKE!

by astromets on Jul 11, 2011 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Must watch the games on the radio.

by Putnan Prince on Jul 13, 2011 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions

Give it up, Mr. Broken Record.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.

by Ogre39666 on Jul 15, 2011 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions

bobbers=boppers

bobbers would be the bobblehead versions, I guess.

by tmu on Jul 11, 2011 12:17 PM EDT reply actions

Bobbers would probably be good in a "bobbing for apples" league.

Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.

by Steve Schreiber on Jul 11, 2011 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions

If those were Mets bobbers

They’d be out for the year with neck and temporomandibular injuries.

And allergic to apples.

by tmu on Jul 11, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions

We're afflicted by ophidian temporomandibular mastications,

baby!

by Ownbey4Mex on Jul 11, 2011 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Pagan has been a huge disappointment so far

only .316 wOBA and worth negative runs in the field. A better first half by Pagan would have mitigated the loss of Wright/Ike/Reyes and have us in a better position going into the break.

A deadline has a wonderful way of concentrating the mind.-Professor James Moriarty
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.- Former Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan

by Blame-everyone-else on Jul 11, 2011 1:17 PM EDT reply actions