New York Mets Pitchers: Mid-Season Grades
Not much was expected out of the team's pitchers this year, but both the rotation and bullpen have been mostly good. With the All Star break upon us, what better time than now to grade the performance of the Mets up to this point?
Francisco Rodriguez: A
In between all the talk about his looming vesting option, Frankie's been an excellent relief pitcher. He's only human and slumped a couple of times, but the results have still been very good. His strikeouts are down, but he's kept his walks down like he did last year to minimize the damage.
After struggling early in the year, Parnell hit the disabled list and came back looking like he did in 2010. With 10.9 K/9 and a reasonable 3.3 BB/9, Parnell's 2.92 ERA is no fluke. His FIP and xFIP are nearly identical: 2.67 and 2.66. If and when Francisco Rodriguez is traded, Parnell is the most likely pitcher to take over as the Mets' closer.
Jon Niese: A-
Easily the best starting pitcher on the team, Niese's 3.88 ERA is a bit deceptive, and it was artificially inflated when Terry Collins thought it'd be a good idea to use him out of the bullpen in the final game before the break. He's already been good but should be even better moving forward.
Tim Byrdak: B+
Pedro Feliciano left a void in the Mets' bullpen before heading up to the Bronx and doing the same to the Yankees. There were a bunch of options on the market for a replacement, and Sandy Alderson went with the inexpensive veteran, who has been superb against left-handed hitters. His overall numbers suffer a bit because he's faced nearly as many righties as lefties, but he's dominating lefties: 12.2 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9, good for a 2.44 xFIP.
Chris Capuano: B+
Of the five pitchers in the rotation, Capuano's 3.70 xFIP is the second-lowest. The strikeouts are pretty good, the walks are in check, and he's probably gotten a bit unlucky with the dingers.
Pedro Beato: B+
Beato's been one of the best Rule 5 picks the Mets have gotten right in quite some time. It'd be nice if he struck out more opponents, but he's not walking too many, either.
R.A. Dickey: B
Dickey started slow and has gotten better as the season has progressed. His walks were high in March and April, but since then, Dickey's back to his 2010 habits of barely walking anyone despite throwing a knuckleball. Whether or not the Mets end up making a run at the Braves, watching Dickey pitch is something to behold.
Dillon Gee: B
After a dazzling start to his major league season upon replacing Chris Young, Gee has come back down to earth slowly but surely. He still looks very much like a major league pitcher, and those aren't easy to come by.
It seems like he's been out for a long time, but before Buchholz hit the DL, he was looking very good on the mound. If he returns, he could easily become a high-leverage reliever in a Frankie-less bullpen.
It doesn't seem likely that Isringhausen, the feel-good story of the season, will maintain the success he's had so far this year. There are just far too many walks and not enough strikeouts to make up for them. If he remains with the team for the remainder of the year, he should see lower leverage situations.
Mike Pelfrey: C
Pelfrey's the least exciting and least effective pitcher to watch on this team, and it shouldn't really come as a surprise. Fluctuations in his ERA from year to year make him look erratic, but his xFIP for each year since 2008: 4.45, 4.47, 4.31, 4.43. He's a capable major league pitcher who's doing the same thing he's always done, mixing in a the occasional gem with a bunch of average outings.
Manny Acosta: F
It's a really small sample, but he's been abysmal. In all likelihood, he'll get better, but so far, no good.
His track record suggests that he'll get better, but he's just not doing anything well right now. He briefly looked better upon his return from Buffalo, but that didn't last.
So many strikeouts. So many walks. Ugly results.
Pat Misch: F
He got absolutely shelled in his seven innings of big league work.
Chris Young: Incomplete
His brief time with the Mets was top-notch, but he's a distant memory because he got hurt so early in the season.
Mike O'Connor: Incomplete
His numbers in Buffalo suggest that what he did in his brief stint in the majors probably wasn't sustainable.
65 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Niese
I’ve always been a huge fan, but I hadn’t checked his 2011 xFIP in a few weeks. Can’t believe hes at 3.35.
That’s some #4 or #5 starter, huh, prospect geniuses (Kevin Goldstein)?
Ok....
I’m confused on why you are replying to my post, but to make things a little clearer – I was speaking about the prospect gurus who called him a back-end starter. Kevin Goldstein in particular was one, and I’m sure you can find many more too. They really missed that one.
Frankie R
Rodriguez gets a bad rap from Mets fans and that is probably well deserved given the off the field stuff as well as the vest (although that’s on Omar) but he really has been a good pitcher for us the last two years. The decline in velocity and strikeouts concerns me and I have to wonder how many years left of quality pitching he has, but for now it is working. Hopefully we can get something nice in return. I think Parnell can do a nice job replacing KRod for late inning work but I think the bullpen will be a little weak if KRod is traded, especially if Bucholz can’t make it back this season.
I've said that the worst thing about the vesting option
is that it doesn’t let us completely enjoy the time left we have. I wish we could look forward to his appearances for the pure enjoyment of watching him pitch. It’s as if there’s a cloud over him, or worse, like he has the entire franchise on a leash.
by TheBigStapler on Jul 12, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
I’d be willing to tear up this contract and sign him to a 3, 4 year deal around $15 million each year.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jul 12, 2011 4:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Disagree
I don’t want to pay 15m for a closer, for another 3-4 years. Relief pitchers at most produce 2 WAR. Trade him, even paying the rest of the remaining salary this year and replace him inhouse or for cheaper options. We can find better use for that 15m.
In lobby for: Jaime Cevallos, Zack Lutz, orange unis and Rickroll as the 7th inning song.
The Unwritten Rules of AA
Meh.
If you could get him for 10 million I’d start to consider that but 15 million a year? You might as well just pay the vest next season at that rate. 2.5 million isn’t going to help this club all that much. If you can get him signed substantially cheaper, then fine but otherwise, it’s probably best to move on and find another solution.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.
by Steve Schreiber on Jul 12, 2011 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
K-Rod's whip is still pretty atrocious though, isn't it?
And he’s given up more hits than innings pitched. Nice reliever but far from dominant reliever they hoped to get. He’s been quite lucky this year, and some more regression could be coming. Still has great change and curve, but that fastball is very hittable. Don’t think he’ll be missed all that much. I would not give him an A so far. B or B+.
you are judging him solely by whip then?
because his 2.98 FIP is very good, if not dominant. He may not be striking out as much as a few years ago, but he still gets more than a k per inning. His walks are well below career average. If we want to talk about regression, how about his BABIP regressing because its current 0.342 is 70 points above his career norm, and 40+ points higher than his previous career high. His true ERA (tERA) is better than his career norm too (2.77 tERA). Finally, he has cut down on line drives and fly balls this year, getting ground balls at a way above career average 51.7%. Unless you are Mo, it is really hard for closers to not make things interesting/scary on a consistent basis.
You are right though, his fastball is not nearly as good as it was. But, its speed had been trending down since 2006 (though it spiked back up slightly in 09, his worst professional season).
As for the length of the contract, last year he was even better than this year, showing 2005-2008 form. If it weren’t for the vesting option of doom, I imagine he would be a lot more liked. His ’09 was unfortunately pretty mediocre. He has not been as good as Wagner was, and he was never going to be worth that much money (at least WAR-wise, that is very hard for a closer with his limited innings pitched totals), but he has been a very good closer for us since the beginning of last year.
I LIKE IKE!
I think Krod
gets lower than an A. There’s definitely been some luck on his side, as he’s put on a ton of baserunners on with regularity.
http://mixedmartialartsblogger.wordpress.com/
Mel Gibson shot the movie Apocalypto on location at the center of my taint.
-Fake Emcee
by Cory Braiterman on Jul 12, 2011 1:35 PM EDT reply actions
Agree
I think his struggles in June should bump him to a B.
by graves9 on Jul 12, 2011 2:44 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
i wouldnt quite go down to a B
but i think B+/A- is more accurate. i dont think parnell deserves an A either
metsjetsknicksrangers.............can it get any worse?
I love to watch
Capuano pitch. He seems to be a really smart pitcher.
Proud to root for the Jets, Mets, and Islanders!!!
I really agree about Capuano
Most of his numbers have been inflated because of being kept in the game too long OR the bullpen letting his baserunners in. I’ve been critical of Terry at times because I feel he’s been taken out of the game too early on several occasions, but I think there has to be some sort of pitch limit on him given his injury history. Other than that, he’s been a good find.
Amazin Avenue Offseason Plan Contest Winner - 2011 Mets
Capuano hasn't pitched more than 100 pitches in a game, has he?
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jul 12, 2011 4:58 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
he's pitched at least 100 pitches 5 times this yr including 105 against the giants
he’s only pitched more than 6 innings once since may 9th though
metsjetsknicksrangers.............can it get any worse?
Yeah, he's gone over 100 pitches several times
But he had a streak of 3 straight starts in late May where Collins took him out with UNDER 80 pitches, and then he let him go in Milwaukee (no shock there). Then, his next 5 starts before his last outing, he was at 95 and under. He’s definitely watching him closely.
But the two most annoying incidents were at home against Oakland and Philly. Those annoyed me.
Amazin Avenue Offseason Plan Contest Winner - 2011 Mets
by MattT516 on Jul 12, 2011 6:05 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Ivory tower hotshots
Go figure as soon as Alderson and his Ivy League types take over we see rampant grade inflation in midseason report cards.
Grading on a curve
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jul 12, 2011 4:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
whats the curve
the dodgers?
"it's not easy being green"-kermit the frog
"we the mets are an improved ball club, now we lose in extra innings"-casy stengel
i cant spell a nosebleed
he's gone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!OLLIE PEREZ IS GONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
not bad
we get both ted berg and mack to comment. nice!
metsjetsknicksrangers.............can it get any worse?
I know Izzy has a E.r.a in the mid 3's
but according to fangraphs he’s been worth -0.3 War last I checked. He has not pitched well lately as his smoke and mirrors have worn off. It is surprising that he’s stayed healthy and hasn’t gotten really beaten up though. Hopefully he gets traded soon enough.
by graves9 on Jul 12, 2011 2:51 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Ya he somehow has a low ERA
Despite not striking very many out, walking quite a few, and not getting very many GB’s either.
Whoa
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jul 12, 2011 4:28 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
These grades are way too high
for a team that 21st in the majors in FIP and 25th in pitcher WAR. All I see on this report are a bunch of A’s and B’s.
A deadline has a wonderful way of concentrating the mind.-Professor James Moriarty
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.- Former Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan
by Blame-everyone-else on Jul 12, 2011 4:33 PM EDT reply actions
^Meant to include this^
Dickey and Capuano both seem on pace to average seasons. About 2 WAR and ~4 FIP. MLB average pitchers should not be getting B’s and definitely not b+. They should be more in the C+ range. Pelfrey has been worth only 0.2 WAr so far, that deserves as almost failing grade. Parnell has pitched better of late but an A is a high grade for someone who had a lousy start to the season. Izzy as others have pointed out has actually been worth negative WAR so far. That should be a failing grade. Basically all these grades are way too high , save for the A- for Niese.
A deadline has a wonderful way of concentrating the mind.-Professor James Moriarty
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.- Former Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan
by Blame-everyone-else on Jul 12, 2011 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
much better than Adam Rubin
MUCH BETTER
I LIKE IKE!
I really don't get the Adam Rubin hate
There really aren’t many MSM guys better than him out there. Of course, I do think he’s a bit harsh, but as a reporter he’s very solid.
he runs the espn.metsblog site pretty well
but when he tries to write his own column, they are often under-researched and full of cliche.
I LIKE IKE!
I'll agree with this
There really aren’t many MSM guys better than him out there.
Although it’s not really saying all that much when you’re comparing to the schlubs he’s going up against. I happen to prefer Andy McCullough. He seems to be the most progressive and in-tune of the Mets beat writers. Beyond him, it’s mostly dreck and insufferable smugness.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.
by Steve Schreiber on Jul 12, 2011 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions
parnell
not sure how you give parnell an a. he has been mediocre at best
more like sub 3 ERA, FIP and xFIP
and nearly 11 k/9. terrible
I LIKE IKE!
In April he was pretty bad
but after that he’s been really, really good. I would give him a B+
by graves9 on Jul 12, 2011 6:03 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Mediocre? Really?
"Dont blame me, I was given this world, I didn’t make it."
-Tupac Shakur
by NetsMets4Life on Jul 12, 2011 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmm?
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.
by Steve Schreiber on Jul 12, 2011 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Isringhausen, and Pelfrey are too high
And maybe Gee too. It depends what the grades are based on (factoring expectations or not).
Agree that Izzy is too high
He’s had Elmer Dessens-level luck for awhile. I wince when he’s brought into games.
Here...
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.
by Steve Schreiber on Jul 12, 2011 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions
The only thing I disagree with
“Pelfrey’s the least exciting…” I think Pelfrey can be very exciting, just usually for the wrong reasons. He’s like a human train wreck.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf. "
– Tug McGraw when asked about his preference for grass or astroturf
Pelfrey is exciting ....for the opponent.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Jul 12, 2011 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions
KROD: F
DICKEY: A
I rather drink a pitcher of chlorinated water than watch perp rod pitch the ninth.
by Sam Page on Jul 12, 2011 7:58 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Too generous on the grading...
If we had that many A’s and B’s we’d be more than one game over. Parnell def not an A.
Undefeated is the new "Winning".
Duh, undefeated....
by The real Julio from Paterson on Jul 12, 2011 8:08 PM EDT reply actions
not true. the pitching has been overall very good. keep in mind for most of the season they couldn’t score at all.
Shoot the puck Barry!!!
We rank 4th in OBP (.333), 8th in wRC+ (103), and 10th in wOBA (.322).
We rank 17th in ERA (3.95), 22nd in FIP (4.03), 16th in xFIP (3.91), 14th in K/9 (6.96), and 15th in BB/9 (3.12). We’re easily top-10 in offense and in the bottom 3rd in pitching.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
This
The pitching this year has been mostly terrible. See my comment earlier, but basically being 25th in the league in pitcher fWAR should tell you all you need to know.
A deadline has a wonderful way of concentrating the mind.-Professor James Moriarty
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.- Former Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan
by Blame-everyone-else on Jul 12, 2011 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions
parnell
if my serves me correct he ended up back in the minors to figure out how to get hitters out again. my grade is c at best
Your memory is a little faulty
He went down with a finger injury.
"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."
by BobbyV_Incognito on Jul 13, 2011 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn't have given anyone an "A"
That, in my opinion, should be reserved for truly elite results, like Doc Gooden’s 1985 season.
__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden

by 































