Why Bobby Parnell will make a fine Mets closer | SNY Why Guys

Michael Salfino is ready for Parnell Time.

11 months ago Eric Simon 40 comments 0 recs |

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I know he's having a career season so far

with an excellent ERA/FIP/xFIP, and his peripherals are great, but I can’t help but feel SSS, and feel wary.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jul 13, 2011 12:53 PM EDT reply actions

He was just as good last year as well

by Balagast on Jul 13, 2011 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions

again we can say, "Thanks Asshat clown"[aka Jerry Manuel

for not putting Parnell in as a closer for a few meaningless games the last few years…we’d really have a better radar on him by now for this role.

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Jul 13, 2011 12:54 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

The biggest revelation to me during the ASG

was that ESPN hired Jerry as an analyst. Really ESPN? There was no one ~~qualified~~ literate who applied for that job?

A deadline has a wonderful way of concentrating the mind.-Professor James Moriarty
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.- Former Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan

by Blame-everyone-else on Jul 13, 2011 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions

and MLB live...

I watch it for Hazel May and “quick pitch”, but that’s it.

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Jul 13, 2011 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions

ESPN

As most of us know you really dont have to be qualified for jack to work for them.

Insert witty signature here

by BlueChill on Jul 13, 2011 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

ESPN qualifications:

ex-manager/coach/player/GM – Qualified

I LIKE IKE!

by astromets on Jul 14, 2011 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions

Parnell has been used as closer in a bunch of points of time

Or has come in in save opportunities.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jul 13, 2011 7:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

This.

He’s pitched in save situations before. They just happened to occur in the 7th or 8th for the most part.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.

by Ogre39666 on Jul 13, 2011 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions

guess I tried to kill my brain cells with that...I can't recall those opporunities, sorry

but I trust your memory is clearer than mine BDMF

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Jul 13, 2011 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm going to miss BB-Rod

I can haz BB-Parnell ?

One day, this team is going to kill me.

by fxcarden on Jul 13, 2011 1:12 PM EDT reply actions

its gonna be BS-Parnell

by rcnt123 on Jul 13, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions

As opposed to BS-Rod?

__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden

by Russ on Jul 13, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions

How about

WP-Parnell ?

WP for whiplash

One day, this team is going to kill me.

by fxcarden on Jul 13, 2011 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions

I still like RA Parnell as a nickname.

Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.

by Steve Schreiber on Jul 13, 2011 4:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

RA Parnell is his name

From henceforth.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jul 13, 2011 7:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

very well then

we needz a 9th inning prayer

One day, this team is going to kill me.

by fxcarden on Jul 13, 2011 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Hmm...

R.A. Dickey, in these most trying times of the 9th inning, allow your namesake, R.A. Parnell, to channel your inner greatness, only with about 20 extra MPH on his fastball. R.A.men

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jul 14, 2011 3:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I am ready for Parnell time

Captain Closer FTW

I LIKE IKE!

by astromets on Jul 13, 2011 2:13 PM EDT reply actions

I'm pretty nervous about Parnell as a closer

Although his ERA, FIP and xFIP are all really nice, his WPA is negative. His leverage index is low, and his shutdowns to meltdowns ratio is close to replacement level. In other words, he’s been a poor reliever in high leverage situations, and an excellent one in low leverage situations. In fact, going back to last year, nevermind his career, he hasn’t been effective in high leverage situations. I’m not saying he’s not going to be good since WPA is also a function of usage, but the stats suggest I shouldn’t be confident that he’ll be a good closer.

by robotoverlord on Jul 13, 2011 3:13 PM EDT reply actions

to be fair though, closer isn't intrinsically really any more high or low leverage than any other releif position

and it may actually be less high leverage since he starts off the inning with the bases empty every time. If anything I kind of expect to see his shutdown/meltdown ratio increase since he’s not coming in mid inning with guys on base.

Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?

by KeithsMoustache on Jul 13, 2011 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Hmm, according to the leverage chart

http://www.insidethebook.com/li.shtml#17, closing situations do appear to be higher leverage intrinisically, versus start of inning in non-save situations. As empirical proof, per fangraphs all 10 of the top 10 leaders in gmLI are closers.

by robotoverlord on Jul 13, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions

I stand corrected,I guess they do have higher leverage because they generally only pitch with narrow leads, which offsets the fact they don't come in with baserunners

still think a move to closer will help his shutdown/meltdown ratio.

Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?

by KeithsMoustache on Jul 13, 2011 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions

No, I still think your initial thought is correct.

All that meant was that an inning with a 3-0 lead (or less) is higher leverage than one without (losing or a 4-0 lead). It does not mean that the 9th inning with a 3-0 lead is higher leverage than the 8th inning with a 3-0 lead.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.

by Ogre39666 on Jul 13, 2011 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes, it is.

by robotoverlord on Jul 13, 2011 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Sorry, I shouldn't be so glib

my apologies, if you’re talking specifically about a 3 run lead, then yes, you are correct. However, if you compare all the little boxes, the leverage indices are higher, you can’t ignore the fact that runners get on as if the leverage remains constant through out the 9th any more than you can ignore save situations with 1 run leads, unless I’m misunderstanding your point.

by robotoverlord on Jul 13, 2011 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, specifically about a 3-0 lead entering an inning.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.

by Ogre39666 on Jul 13, 2011 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions

looking at this chart honestly makes me remember why I don't really like the "leverage" stat very much

It doesn’t actually say anything about the pitcher, it just puts a number on how big the consequences are if they screw up in a situation. I think its kind of silly to look at one inning as different from another. Your goal is always to not give up runs, leverage just tells you that it’s bad to get in situations where those runs can score.

Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?

by KeithsMoustache on Jul 13, 2011 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree for the most part

But what the stat says is that Bobby Parnell has lost us more games than he’s won so far, and that’s concerning since the SNYwhy guys are pushing for him to be handed, on average, the most opportunities to singlehandedly influence the outcome of games for us, a situation which he actually hasn’t performed well in. I’d rather he have insanely high WPA with a 5:1 shutdown-meltdown ratio, as you also no-doubtedly do, that’s all. I’m not saying his WPA is predictive, just worrisome.

by robotoverlord on Jul 13, 2011 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions

WPA is just a bit of a twitchy stat, as it is so highly situation dependent

I’m really not too worried about Cap’n Fastball blowing an excessive number of games this year. He’s got good stuff, and he’s going to be coming in without runners on in most cases. It’s my gut feeling (and semi-supported by Michkins post below) that Parnell struggles the most when he comes in mid inning with inherited runners.

A general question about WPA, do closers take less of a hit to WPA when they give up non-go ahead runs since it’s the last inning and therefore theres no chance for the other team to come back? If so giving up one run in the 7th or 8th inning would have a lot more negative WPA than in the 9th, with the scores being equal? I know WPA isn’t predictive, just curious if this is how it works given the context of the conversation.

Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?

by KeithsMoustache on Jul 13, 2011 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, the only chart I know of only has WE for -1 to 1 run differentials

But I’m pretty sure teams with a 1 run lead in the 8th win at lower rate than teams with a 1 run lead in the 9th. But since WPA is a difference, you’d also have to take into account the much lower winning rate of teams with a 2 run lead in the 8th versus a 2 run lead in the 9th. Off hand I’d guess the difference in winning percentage is probably much greater in the 9th.

by robotoverlord on Jul 13, 2011 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions

BTW, i looked at parnell's splits

and he’s actually been quite good in high leverage situations. Unfortunately he’s been bitten by some bad meltdowns. Hopefully as his usage in those situations increases, his ratios will improve. Still, the guy makes me nervous.

by robotoverlord on Jul 13, 2011 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions

is there a way to look up how well he pitched when brought in with runners on base

vs starting with a clean inning? I think that would be a decent gauge of how he’ll look as a closer. I’ve always been a huge Parnell fan, hoping he takes this opportunity and runs with it.

Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?

by KeithsMoustache on Jul 13, 2011 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions

You can use the "Inherited Scored %" as a proxy

IS% — Inherited Score Percentage
Percentage of runners on base when pitcher entered the game who subsequently scored.These runners show up in the previous pitcher’s ERA.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/parnebo01-pitch.shtml

I don’t know what the league average is but for Parns:
2009: 33%
2010: 18%
2011: 75% (!)

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by Michkin on Jul 13, 2011 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah, thats pretty horrendous this year but I feel kind of justifies my gut feeling

that he does well when he comes in with the bases clean, but gets progressively less effective when he’s brought in for the middle of a crisis. Not that he won’t create his own from time to time, but i feel like his greatest struggle is coming in right off the bat with runners on base.

Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?

by KeithsMoustache on Jul 13, 2011 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Though 2011 numbers are significantly different from 09-10.

Unless something changed this year that makes him worse with men on base (like a different motion when pitching from the stretch or TC has changed his usage and he is facing opponents with more adverse splits), that number would probably regress over a larger sample of innings.

In lobby for: Jaime Cevallos, Zack Lutz, orange unis and Rickroll as the 7th inning song.
The Unwritten Rules of AA

by Michkin on Jul 13, 2011 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm sure they'll regress back towards whatever his mean is

and I’m pretty high on Parnell as a closer, I think he’ll do well there.

Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?

by KeithsMoustache on Jul 13, 2011 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions

But how many apperences are we talking

in these high leverage and low leverage situation? RP by nature of usage are victims of SSS issues so what can we actually take away by dividing these already limited apperences further. Is there proof that some pitchers pitch better/worse in high leverage situations or is this another thing like batting “clutch” that while arguable marginal does tend to even out with a large of sample size to reflect a players true ability level. Though to be fair, I will say that we don’t really know Parnell’s true talent at this point of his career.

by Sokojoe on Jul 13, 2011 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Leverage index isn't predictive, it's descriptive

All i was pointing out is that he hasn’t faced the fire much, and when he has, he’s gotten blown up as often as he put the fire out. Now people are advocating throwing him into the role with the most fire, on average. I wouldn’t bet against Parnell. I really wouldn’t. I think he’ll be a pretty good closer and I think he should get a chance to close. But I find the facts above worrying, that is all. Take them for what it’s worth.

by robotoverlord on Jul 13, 2011 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions