Friday Morning Applesauce: More K-Rod Reaction And Beltran Rumors, AL MVP Talk, Clemens Gets To Walk

by Stephen Schmidt on Jul 15, 2011 9:00 AM EDT in Applesauce

With no Mets game again last night, it was once again a bit of a slow news day (at least new news) for the Metsies. We'll start with a little more reaction to the K-Rod trade. The Post has some comments from some players about the situation and what it means for the team going forward. R.A. Dickey apparently was not surprised that K-Rod was moved, which makes it all that much stranger to me that he failed to get his no trade list into the team. For what it's worth, K-Rod handled the media well last night in Denver.

Metstradamus has a little laugh at the K-Rod no trade list situation. When's the last time we can remember the Mets benefiting from a failure to follow through on contractual details? Either way, we're looking at a new closer situation to start the second half of the season. While most expect it to be a closer by committee approach, Patrick Flood makes a case against using Bobby Parnell in that role.

With the trade of K-Rod and Sandy Alderson's recent comments about wanting to keep Reyes, Carlos Beltran is almost sure to be the big storyline for the next two weeks. Here's a take on what teams might be in on him at the deadline. You might also want to include the Red Sox on that list if JD Drew continues to struggle.

Keith Law released his midseason top 50 prospect list. The list is insider only, but Toby Hyde posted the most relevant part to Mets fans. Another guy that may make this list someday is supplemental first rounder Michael Fulmer, whom the Mets signed to an above slot deal which we learned the specifics of yesterday. While it's been known for a while that we had an agreement with him, it's nice to see we're not letting guys go over a few hundred thousand dollars.

Around MLB:

The Marlins had a wild 9th inning last night to defeat the Cubs 6-3. That ups their winning streak to 6 in a row. Those Marlins sure are streaky this year.

The Rangers are also on a tear lately, beating the Mariners by a 5-0 scoreline last night. That's 8 straight for Texas.

FanGraphs takes a look at some of the more interesting story lines they'll be following in the second half of the season. This follows up the article they did making a crystal clear case for the AL MVP. Unfortunately for the Jays, the real MVP may be on the shelf for a while.

What promised to be one of the uglier and media frenzied stories of the summer ended suddenly (at least for now) when the Roger Clemens case ended in a mistrial.

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Comments

when Voltron gets traded, I just hope

he gets traded to a team with actual prospects. I’m not impressed with the Giants’ system. and I don’t think it will be waving the white flag either.

people who think Sandy is a moron for trading F-Rod (too soon), and or feel it is the end forget one important fact:

this team was never expected to compete at all, and yet somehow without all the parts they are doing ok. and ok isn’t good enough to be in the playoffs, at least for 2011.

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Jul 15, 2011 9:26 AM EDT reply actions

But teh clozers is teh most important player on the squadron!

Sandy haz thrown in the towelz!

The 2011 New York Mets: Limit the Damage

by CTRefJay on Jul 15, 2011 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

MLBTR says the Pirates are willing to trade prospects

I’d love to see the Bucs take the Central.

"they're still shitty"

by Help!I'maRock! on Jul 15, 2011 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions

I`m upset

I`m upset, though not surprised, to read that Terry Collins will use a closer by committee approach. I want Bobby Parnell to be given a full shot. What is to be gained by having Izzy close games? He has no future with the Mets.

In other upsetting news, Jeurys Familia is once again being skipped in the rotation to be given “rest”. Once, okay, but twice? I can’t help but feel that the Mets are concealing elbow or shoulder discomfort, which is never good.

by Unappreciated Genius on Jul 15, 2011 9:35 AM EDT reply actions

Trading Izzy for a C+ prospect is to be gained.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.

by Ogre39666 on Jul 15, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions

The fact that Izzy has no future with the team is exactly why we should be using him as the closer.

There is likely zero difference in the expected outcome of this season by alternating the roles of Beato, Parnell, and Izzy. All we accomplish by making one of the pre-arbitration players a “proven closer” is to increase his pricetag going forward. Let the kids enter their arbitration years as “middle relievers” and we’ll likely get much more long term value from them.

by Stephen Schmidt on Jul 15, 2011 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions

unless they're trying up Izzy's value (somehow)

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Jul 15, 2011 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions

I think they're just trying to limit innings

He’s already thrown 92 innings after only throwing 121 last year and 134 the year before. I think they’re aiming at 150ish this season.

by Evan_S on Jul 15, 2011 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions

the only way I see Izzy closing games

is that they want him to get his 300th save in a Mets uniform. I’d rather just see Parnell given the chance though.

by BigBoyJacobs on Jul 15, 2011 9:40 AM EDT reply actions

RE: the argument against Parnell piece from Flood

He actually updated his post to say that he is rescinding his comments about Parnell getting hit hard.

by Balagast on Jul 15, 2011 9:42 AM EDT reply actions

It's definitely something to keep an eye on

Parnell could end up having a very Kyle Farnsworth-like career if he can’t consistently suppress hard contact.

by TheBigStapler on Jul 15, 2011 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't see any evidence to support the fact that he gives up hard contact though

In the small sample size of BABIP that we have I don’t think its valid to draw almost anything from that.

He has a decent GB rate, and his HR/FB rate also isn’t particularly high. Those are two things I would think show he avoids hard contact.

If you just look at last year his LD rate was really high, but that has been reduced quite a bit this year.

by Balagast on Jul 15, 2011 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions

He did that since I wrote that part of the applesauce

Odds are he got a bunch of emails pointing that fact out

by Stephen Schmidt on Jul 15, 2011 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Ya I wasn't trying to be critical

Just figured it was worth noting.

by Balagast on Jul 15, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm just curious

do you guys think the mets really need to designate a “closer” or should they just use the best pitcher for that situation? I feel that Collins should look at the ninth inning and determine who should pitch by the situation that the mets are in. But if I had to choose who I would like to see, it’d be Parnell

"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx

In Prust We Trust

"Kovalev would work with Tortorella like a kitty would work in a microwave.

A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep

Follow me @8kpower

by Kevin Power on Jul 15, 2011 9:59 AM EDT reply actions

Agreed

I mean if Ryan Howard is up to start the inning I’d like to see him use the LOOGY there, and they go to Parnell. There is no reason Parnell has to be the guy to start and finish the 9th inning, or anyone else for that matter.

Why the 9th inning RP decision making process has to be significantly different than any other inning baffles me.

by Balagast on Jul 15, 2011 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions

but, but...........

Parnell’s vest !!!!!!!!

One day, this team is going to kill me.

by fxcarden on Jul 15, 2011 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions

Who is our LOOGY?

Byrdak?

"Don't look now, but there's one too many people in this room and I think it's you." Groucho Marx

In Prust We Trust

"Kovalev would work with Tortorella like a kitty would work in a microwave.

A lot of smoke and desperate clawing at the door. It wouldn’t work. It would just be a big, hot mess." -Dig Deep

Follow me @8kpower

by Kevin Power on Jul 15, 2011 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Ya

SSS I realize, but he has been really effective against lefties. 4.75 K/BB, and a 2.96 FIP.

by Balagast on Jul 15, 2011 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions

Parnell being "hit hard on contact" is a caek:

Evaluating a player on ERA, BA against and BABIP (without a detailed or an extreme batted ball profile) is not really recommended.

Calculating his SLGCON against (SLG on contact, or how hard does a player hit the ball when he puts it in play, calculated by the total bases/balls in play):

Parnell (4 years): .492
BB Rod (career): .485
2010 NL average: .523
Mariano Rivera (career): .391

I used the career stats for players because of sample sizes.

That isn’t even counting his recently revamped slider (check it’s pitch type value) and the upward trend in his peripherals (comparing 2010-11 to 08-09, his K% is up and BB% down). One thing to continue observing is his splits against lefties.

In lobby for: Jaime Cevallos, Zack Lutz, orange unis and Rickroll as the 7th inning song.
The Unwritten Rules of AA

by Michkin on Jul 15, 2011 3:28 PM EDT reply actions

Why not just use LD% and homers?

Doesn’t that pretty much cover it? SLG can be affected by poor outfield play.

by Evan_S on Jul 15, 2011 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Using SLGCON to complement the FIP/xFIP analysis and to test that "he is hit hard on contact" hypothesis.

HR are already covered in FIP/xFIP. LD%/FB% classification is not considered reliable and varies a lot depending on the source.
All balls in play are affected by defense talent and positioning, infield and outfield. If a guy gives up a lot of hard contact, there is no defense that can save him. I did a quick SLGCON against calculation just to check if Parns numbers were considerably above the average to say he is “hittable”.

In lobby for: Jaime Cevallos, Zack Lutz, orange unis and Rickroll as the 7th inning song.
The Unwritten Rules of AA

by Michkin on Jul 15, 2011 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions