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David Wright Returns, Provides Flexibility in Mets' Lineup

For the first time in over two months, David Wright will be in the Mets' lineup. Given the time Wright and Ike Davis have missed, it's impressive that the team enters play tenth in baseball in runs per game. So long as Carlos Beltran is still on the team, Wright's return could easily move the Mets up in the run-scoring ranks, and if Beltran is dealt in the near future, he softens the blow to the lineup. Either way, he gives Terry Collins some added offensive flexibility in the infield.

The Mets have fared pretty well at third base in Wright's absence, mostly because of Daniel Murphy. The Irish Hammer has been a very good hitter all year, and 105 of his plate appearances have come while playing the hot corner. During that time he's put up an .856 OPS, which by current major league third base standards is damn near elite. Still, the upgrade from Murphy to Wright at third base should be significant.

Murphy will move back to the other side of the infield, where Terry Collins can use him at first or second. Keeping Lucas Duda at first base, at least against right-handed pitching, and playing Murphy at second makes the most sense for the foreseeable future. Neither Duda nor Justin Turner has enough time in the majors to know what kind of hitters they will be, but Duda has a couple of things working in his favor.

Star-divide

El Dud-a-rino is younger and has dominated at the upper levels of the minor leagues by hitting for power, albeit at an advanced age for the levels at which he was playing.  Although Turner has also been successful at those levels, he has never shown the type of power that Duda has. If there's anything the Mets lack in their lineup, it's power. Even if Wright replaces the power that is lost if and when Beltran departs, there's not much of a home run threat in the rest of the lineup.

That's not to say that power should be the sole factor in deciding whether Turner or Duda sees the majority of the playing time from here on out, but it's not like Turner's .326 OBP is turning heads.

I'd imagine the Mets will use these three players this way, but Terry Collins could buy into the "Murphy has no position" talk and stick him at first while Turner becomes the new everyday second baseman.

As for Wright, enjoy his return. There will come a time that he's playing his last game in a Mets uniform, too, and it would be a shame if he were as under-appreciated as Carlos Beltran was for much of his times in Queens.

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The Duda/Turner question

is probably a short-term (i.e. one-week) issue; given that Beltran will most likely be traded and they’ll probably move Duda to RF and Murphy back to 1B. That said, I agree that getting Duda ABs should be a priority. He’s showing some signs at the plate – I’m particularly impressed by his ability to take walks – but he’s got to start showing power to have any real value to a major league team. Hopefully it’s just a matter of time.

by dontstopbelieving on Jul 22, 2011 1:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Duda has shown some really spotty defense at 1B, and I'm still waiting for his 1st HR of the season.

He shows a lot of potential, but he has been starting on the slower side for someone with 128 PAs. I’m sure all of feel he can improve on his .142 ISO for someone who completely tore it up in AAA.

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by sparbz on Jul 22, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

I guess my point is that Duda has the biggest gap right now between “actual performance” and “potential performance” at the big-league level. Turner has done about what we could have expected of him. Duda hasn’t, but obviously has the power potential, so to the extent that it’s an issue of adjustment to the caliber of major league pitching, it behooves the Mets to give him as many ABs as possible to make that adjustment. It happened toward the end of last year, so hopefully it’s just a matter of time – but he needs to get playing time regardless so we can find out.

by dontstopbelieving on Jul 22, 2011 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

But 133 is.

"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."

by BobbyV_Incognito on Jul 23, 2011 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

The power has been underwhelming for the Dude

but take a look at what he’s done in June and July. His overall numbers are held down by that 2-20 stint early in the season mainly when he was pinch hitting. Since coming back, he’s been around a .280 hitter, walks a decent amount and has a bunch of doubles and triples.

Again, you’d obviously like to see home run power but he hasn’t been bad either. He’s actually been pretty solid with the bat since coming back.

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by Steve Schreiber on Jul 22, 2011 2:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

It's hard to look past that, for now, he's the second banana to Ike Davis

On both offensive and defensive sides. With Davis likely being out for the rest of the season, it’d be nice to see Duda pick it up a little (and raise his trade value).

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by sparbz on Jul 22, 2011 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

wait....

if his defense is crappy, and he hasn’t hit 1 HR, and he is slow as a tortoise on the bases, how does he show potential ?.

One day, this team is going to kill me.

by fxcarden on Jul 22, 2011 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

other than his power, his peripherals are all much improved

9.4 /14.1 % BB/K rate is not bad at all, and he’s showing good contact rate and SwStr to back it up.

by secret defense on Jul 22, 2011 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

bah

that is razor thin.

One day, this team is going to kill me.

by fxcarden on Jul 22, 2011 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

You just posted that

Once is more than enough. You don’t have to leave a trail of little contentless DUDA SUX comments all over the site. Either make a real argument or leave well enough alone.

by anonymous on Jul 23, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah that is how I see it too

and they will use this time to get the guys a day off and get Turner back on track

Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all

by Rickfansince76 on Jul 22, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

I hope that today the top of the lineup will look something like

1) Reyes
2) Pagan
3) Wright/Tron
4) Wright/Tron

I’m getting sick of Turner in the two hole, and it would be nice to have both speedsters at the top of the order to set up for Wright and the almighty Tron.

by Shevshevy on Jul 22, 2011 2:16 PM EDT reply actions  

Yeah

Pagan’s been pretty bad. If Wright is batting 4th, like Terry said, that means Murphy’s getting moved in the lineup. Does he work at 2 hole, or is he better served batting 5th?

by MetsCity on Jul 22, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like the idea of Murphy

in the No. 2 slot

Enjoying what may be the final season of two of my favorite Mets in Blue and Orange: Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran

by EMSfan9 on Jul 22, 2011 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

he works there too

but as a better hitter than Pagan, I would rather have him 5 to offer Wright some protection

I LIKE IKE!

by astromets on Jul 23, 2011 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pagan's been really unlucky this year

he’s hitting a lot of line drives, but his BABIP is only .250. Plus his BB/K is as good as Jose.

by secret defense on Jul 22, 2011 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pagan has a career high walk rate and a career low K rate this year, he has just had bad BABIP

Also he has been better the last few months and Turner has cooled off substantially, and having speed at the top of the order in front of the big bats is nice.

by Shevshevy on Jul 22, 2011 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

not sure if you noticed how BABIP driven that is

he is walking near a career high and striking out at an all time low, great things for batting 2nd.

I LIKE IKE!

by astromets on Jul 23, 2011 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

As I figure it, from a Wins Above Replacement point of view

losing Wright for about 58 games (a bit more than a third of a season) might be estimated to have cost the Mets somwhere between one win on the low end and three wins on the high end. Although Murf has been a better than replacement level fill-in at third, Murf’s presence at third meant that in turn he had to be replaced elsewhere by replacement level performance by Turner/Tejada/Duda. So the net cost of Wright’s injury is essentially whatever WAR David would have produced in those missed 58 games. Wright 2009-2010 was, roughly speaking, a 4 WAR per full season player, and Wright 2007-2008 about an 8 WAR per full season player. Losing a 4 WAR per season player for 58 games costs on average just under 1.5 wins compared to replacement level fill-ins; losing an 8 WAR per season player for 58 games costs on average about 2.9 wins compared to replacement level fill-ins. So best WAR estimate is with David in the lineup the past 58 games, and all other things being equal, the Mets would most likely now be, instead of 49-49, somewhere between 50-48 and 52-46.

by birtelcom on Jul 22, 2011 2:18 PM EDT reply actions  

Is it really right

to use Wright’s previous seasons as benchmarks for his WAR this year? This year, his performance, prior to his injury, was well below his career norms – whether because of injury, regression, or whatever, he accumulated only .5 WAR (Fangraphs) in 39 games – that’s about a 2 WAR year. Frankly, part of the reason the Mets didn’t seem to “miss” Wright that much was because Wright wasn’t producing up to his accustomed levels in the time he was “healthy.”

The hope, of course, is that he’s actually healthy now and that his poor production prior to the DL stint was at least in part due to the back injury. But only time will tell.

by dontstopbelieving on Jul 22, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Generally, it's not good sabermetric practice to let the first thirty-something games of a season

trump the prior 4 years of perfomance in seeking to estimate a player’s true talent level. Especially if the player is only 28 years old and most especially if some part of that early season performance may have been affected by a back injury that eventually led to the DL.

by birtelcom on Jul 22, 2011 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

I guess my point is that the original post was trying to estimate the number of wins that Wright’s DL stint cost the Mets, and I think it’s pretty hard to do that when his prior performance this year was so subpar (by his standards). That his performance may have been (and hopefully was) affected by his injury makes it even harder to say that his absence “cost” us __ wins.

If anythink if he comes back healthy and playing like the Dubs of old, then we could perhaps attribute his bad performance this year to the injury, and estimate the number of wins lost for the entire first half of the season (including the DL stint). But at this point, I think it would be premature to say how many wins we “lost.”

by dontstopbelieving on Jul 22, 2011 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fair points all, dsb.

I might better have characterized my original post as an inquiry regarding the following: “Assuming that, if Wright had been in the lineup for the 58 games he missed, he would have performed at a level that reflects a best estimate of his ‘true value’ when healthy, how many wins could his absence then be said to have cost the Mets?”

by birtelcom on Jul 22, 2011 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was not concerned about Wright's performance, especially since he was heating up before

getting injured. The biggest problem was the BABIP, and David has always been streaky.

by Shevshevy on Jul 22, 2011 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh, grate

Their goes clubhouse chemistry.

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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jul 22, 2011 3:03 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

I'd like to see Turner dropped in the lineup

and put Murph or Pagan batting 2nd…against righties at least.
However, tonight’s lineup is:
Reyes, Turner, Voltron, Dubs, Hammer, Pagan, Dude, Ronnie P.

Probably the best lineup they’ve thrown out there since the Colorado trip. Hooray!

by David G on Jul 22, 2011 3:06 PM EDT reply actions  

BELTRAN EFFECT

If (when?) Beltran is traded, that would open up RF for Duda.

by MDMETSFAN on Jul 22, 2011 3:41 PM EDT reply actions  

Duda

In RF is scary. Is there anyway we can shift Bay over to RF instead if we must trot him out there everyday? I think he could cover more ground than Duda. My baby cousin could cover more ground than Duda.

by MetsCity on Jul 22, 2011 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

I just hope David's swing is OK

I’m more worried about his performance than what will happen to Duda/Turner/Murph.

by Joamiq on Jul 22, 2011 3:42 PM EDT reply actions  

Just for fun, I ran his incredible sample size at rehab games through the MLE

That turned out to be a ML line of .346/.444/.439. The OBP is nice and all, but the power is disappointing haha

In lobby for: Jaime Cevallos, Zack Lutz, orange unis and Rickroll as the 7th inning song.
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by Michkin on Jul 22, 2011 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Traid Dubs

he has obviously lost his power again, probably because he is a luzer and cant get any ringz

by Shevshevy on Jul 22, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Off Topic

But did anybody else see that they DFA’d Nick Evans…again? They followed this move up by claiming Mike Baxter off waivers, an IF from the Padres system. All of this was uninspiring. And I’m pretty sure they could’ve done without Pridie on the ML roster.

by MetsCity on Jul 22, 2011 4:14 PM EDT reply actions  

Error

He’s actually an OF.

by MetsCity on Jul 22, 2011 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's messed up

they could’ve kept Evans to play 1b vs. lefties, and DFA’d Pridie since he literally has no role whatsoever. Even if Beltran gets traded, he’s not playing.

by David G on Jul 22, 2011 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

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