Mets vs. Reds Saber-stat Series Preview

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Tonight, the Mets (50-51, 14.5GB) travel to Cinncinatti to begin a four-game series against the Reds (50-51, 3GB).

These teams sport the same record, but the Reds have a better run differential largely due to their scoring about a fifth more runs per game. As is typical, the Reds have hit a bunch more home runs than the Mets (110 vs. 66). Unfortunately for this series, the Reds HR/FB ratio at home is 3rd best in the NL (12.8%) and the Mets are league-worst in terms of giving up HR/FB (12.6%).

The Mets pitching looks to be slightly better on the year than the Reds' staff, and so far in July that's held. It's not a huge gap, but when their HR/FB ratio is as bad as it is and they are facing a slugging team on the road you have to dig deep.

The Reds 12.7% HR/FB ratio against at home may bode well for Met hitter, especially with the return of David Wright and Carlos Beltran still in a Met uniform. The real question will be whether the pitching staff can find some way to limit the Reds' home runs. So far this year, they simply haven't found a way to do that in hitter-friendly parks.

I'd say we are looking at a split at best.

For more on the Reds, be sure to check out Red Reporter.

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Graphic Guide: League average is scaled to 100. Scores higher than 100 indicate performance better than league average, less than 100 indicates performance worse than league average regardless of the statistic. For example, if a team has a FIP of 110% on the graph their actual FIP is 10% better than league average.

Offense

RS/G: Runs Scored per Game

wOBA: Weighted On-base Average

OBP: On-base Percentage

SLG: Slugging

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

LD%: Line-drive Percentage

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio

Defense

RA/G: Runs Against per Game

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching

tERA: True Runs Allowed

SIERA: Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average (FanGraphs' version)

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

K/BB: Strikeouts to Walk Ratio

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio

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