Jose, Jeter, Nomar, and the Rest

Earlier today, I posted a FanShot, comparing Jose Reyes' FanGraphs WAR Graph (by age) to that of Derek Jeter and Nomar Garciaparra.  Here it is, again, (embiggen here):

via www.fangraphs.com

At this point in Reyes' career, he tracks both Jeter and Nomar pretty well.  Jeter, of course, continues upward.  Nomar flattens out, doing a whole lot of nothing until his career peters out.

Which path is more likely?  Who knows.  But let's have some more fun with it.

Hit the jump for some purty graphs.

JETER

FIrst, I went to Jeter's B-R page and looked up his similar players.  In focused on contemporary shortstops and chose Barry Larkin and Alan Trammel to fill out the graph.  The results, below.

(Embiggen)

The really interesting thing about this graph is how similar all three non-Reyes players are. Reyes' 2011, if his hammy holds up, will help him keep pace with Jeter and even gain a bit on Trammell.  

But what's hopeful/promising in all this is the slopes.  They are all relatively the same.  But then again, so was Nomar's at the time.

NOMAR

So, let's take a look at Nomar.  His comps aren't contemporaries and shortstops, for the most part.  I went with Miguel Tejada and Jeff Kent.

(Embiggen)

Kent and Tejada's graphs look alike.  At age 34/35, when Nomar's career came to an end, all three ended up at the same general point.  But the way they got there is very different.  Kent/Tejada weren't at 20 WAR until age 30.  Nomar was at 40 WAR by then and absent something horrific, so will Reyes.  

This isn't a ton of evidence, but all together, there's a decent chance that Reyes will have an absolutely incredible 5 to ten years coming up.