Angel Pagan and the middle of the lineup

by WinstonSmith on Aug 22, 2011 6:19 PM EDT

In 2010 Angel Pagan batted .290, got on base at .340 and slugged .425 with 37 steals in 49 attempts with 69 RBIs and 80 runs scored. He also batted no higher than 3rd in the order in 112 of 151 games that he played in.

In 2011 Angel Pagan has batted .268, got on base at .328 and slugged just .393 with 26 steals in 32 attempts, 46 RBIs and just 51 runs scored. Clearly, a down year for Angel, as we all well know. The glaring difference between the seasons (at the plate, I know he has had problems in the field as well, which I won't get into), is that he has batted no higher than 3rd in just 34 games this season.

Is it possible that Pagan is being forced to bat in situations in which he isn't entirely comfortable and its causing his decline in offensive production? Early in the season I recall seeing Terry Collins on SNY saying that he needed Pagans bat in the middle of the line up to produce runs, but maybe Pagan is just not cut out to be a run producer in the middle of the lineup. It looks like Pagan won't have as many RBIs, despite batting mostly in the middle of the lineup, where he is expected to be producing RBIs (Yes, I realize he will play in less games this season because of injury.) And he won't score nearly 80 runs. Less RBIs in the middle of the lineup than in the front of it? I guess you can expect a decline in runs scored when moving to the middle of the lineup, but not RBIs?

Granted, Justin Turner has seen a fair amount of time in the 2 hole (69 of his 91 games played) and has been a pretty solid number 2 hitter (considering his age and lack of experience at the major league level) and was seeming to get in the mindset of taking pitches and allow Reyes, ahead of him, to grab some steals- but how might Pagans slash line look if he had spent those games in the 2 hole? How many more times may he have been batted in by the people behind him? Maybe he would have seen progress, rather than regression this year. I'm not a big fan of fixing something that isn't broken- and last season, Pagan was not broken. It bothers me that he was moved out of a part of the lineup where he had already proved to be successful.

I am admittedly a novice when it comes to baseball knowledge and advanced stats, I'm just a devoted fan, so please refrain from ripping on my opinions here, as I am merely just looking to see what others in the fan community think? Maybe I'm missing something?

Look forward to hearing others opinions on the situation..

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Some problems with this line of reasoning

1. A batter’s spot in the lineup has basically no demonstrated effect on his hitting. “Protection” is more a myth than a reality.
2. RBIs and runs scored are not measures of individual ability, but rather of team outcomes. Neither one is a skill. There is no such thing as a “run producer.”
3. “Post hoc, ergo propter hoc” is a fallacy. Whatever did cause Pagan’s problems hitting this year, it very likely has nothing at all to do with his role or his slot in the lineup.

by anonymous on Aug 22, 2011 6:38 PM EDT reply actions

generally I agree

but Pagan has stated how batting in different spots in the lineup effect him. He thinks about it too much and trys to change his swing.

Putting him in the 2 hole, where he has shown a good comfort level may be the best thing for him.

I think it was Bobby V who said: "You are never as good as you are when you are at your best, and you are not as bad as when you are at your worst."

Like the really funny uncle with a healthy bourbon habit who matches every brilliant Thanksgiving story with one or two ill-advised racist jokes or boob grabs, we’re stuck with Melo. So we might as well learn to love him — quirks and all. http://knickerblogger.net/2011-report-card-carmelo-anthony/

by gbaked on Aug 22, 2011 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions

well

I think thats a fair opinion, though I do disagree somewhat. RBIs and runs scored are most certainly measures of individual ability, though maybe not as much as something like homeruns. Granted, in order to get RBIs, it requires players to have reached base ahead of you- but consider how potent the Mets offense has been. RBIs can to some degree be looked at as someones ability to hit with runners in scorning position.. and the Mets haven’t often struggled to get runners on base. Don’t forget they are above league average in pretty much every offensive category but homeruns. Runs scored can be viewed the same way. Sure, it requires someone to bat you in, in most instances- but doing things like hustling for a double or stealing a bag can put you in a better position to score those runs.

But anyway, I think i do agree that “protection” is a myth. I think it just has a mental effect on him and the middle of the lineup takes him out of his comfort zone, where he has the best opportunity to be successful.

"You're boring. You probably don’t even drink beer while you watch baseball."

by WinstonSmith on Aug 22, 2011 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions

First graf is basically nonsense

Please go read about some real statistics rather than trying to base arguments about player abilities on RBI and runs scored. If you want to measure how much a player contributes to scoring runs, that is very easily accomplished using real stats like wRC.

by anonymous on Aug 22, 2011 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Whether or not your think it's real is immaterial

The player does, and if nothing else, that effects their approach at the plate. Reyes went through the similar thing when Jerry tried him out batting third, and everyone here screamed, “Reyes is a leadoff guy not a #3 hitter!”

"I only wanted a few things out of life -- a wife, children, to play baseball and to hunt deer." - Turk Wendell

by Rey-O on Aug 22, 2011 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

So show me an actual effect, then

by anonymous on Aug 22, 2011 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

If Reyes had a large enough sample size batting third, he likely would have produced at his career average.

That said, his bat and skill set plays better as a leadoff batter.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.

by Ogre39666 on Aug 23, 2011 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't know what was more idiotic.Trying to move Reyes to third in the order or moving him to second base

to let a Japanese SS with no arm play there?

by Putnan Prince on Aug 23, 2011 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions

How you explained how RBI's and Run's are somewhat individual

is basically an over complicated way of saying “OBP is good.”

Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.

by Ogre39666 on Aug 23, 2011 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions

This.

RBI’s and Runs are bad partially because what you are looking for (situational hitting, for example) can be better explained by looking at other statistics. RBI and runs are so dependent on outside factors that they’re really not telling you about the player’s ability. They’re literally just telling you how many runs and RBI the player had in that season, which in and of itself is useless. The other thing is that RBI and Runs have no correlation from year to year because of how dependent they are on situation.

For example, let me ask you…who’s the better hitter? Ryan Howard with his 96 RBi or Jose Bautista with his 79 RBI. If you just look at RBI, then it looks like Howard but digging a bit deeper, you’ll see that Howard is pretty mediocre hitter who just happens to play on a team with an excellent lineup. Meanwhile, Bautista is on a team that featured garbage like Corey Patterson and Edwin Encarnacion surrounding him.

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by Steve Schreiber on Aug 23, 2011 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions

Occam's Razor.

One of my favorite logical tools.

(Yes, I have favorite logical tools. Philosophy nerd.)

Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.

by Ogre39666 on Aug 23, 2011 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions

There's other logical tools?

I thought that was the only one.

Now, kids, being eaten by a crocodile is just like going to sleep; in giant blender.

by meigs1414 on Aug 23, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Law of non-contradiction, the principle of excluded middle

there are a few more.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.

by Ogre39666 on Aug 23, 2011 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions

The most glaring difference that explains the difference in his seasons, I think, is BABIP

Don’t know if you know what it is, so, most basically and simply, BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) is the percentage of balls that the player hits that don’t get caught and are logged for hits. The higher it is, the more balls the player is hitting that don’t get caught, and are hits. There’s a degree of skill and technique that goes into BABIP, as well as plain old luck, the quality of the defense of the opposing team, and factors like that.

Last season, Pagan hit .290/.340/.425, and had a .331 BABIP. This season, Pagan is hitting .268/.328/.393, with a .284 BABIP. So, last season, 31% of the balls that he made contact with and put into play were hits. This season, 28% of the balls he’s making contact with and putting into play are going for hits.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Aug 22, 2011 11:34 PM EDT reply actions

And Pagan's career BABIP:

.316

Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.

by Ogre39666 on Aug 23, 2011 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Especially since he has more walks and less strikeouts and similar power

by EtSuKe on Aug 23, 2011 1:25 AM EDT up reply actions

Also

If he continues his August hotstreak through September, his final numbers will look pretty much the same as last season. He’s shown the ability to carry a hotstreak through Multiple months before. Then again, he’s also been Luis Castillo for months at a time as well. What a frustrating player.

Kicking knowledge in the face.

by BlackOps on Aug 23, 2011 8:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Haven't seen a CF take the wrong angle on balls as much as Pagan since Lee Mazzilli.Beltan was a

pleasure to watch tracking fly balls.

by Putnan Prince on Aug 23, 2011 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions

Carlos Beltran was a once in a generation type defender in center.

It’s shame so many took him for granted.

Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.

by Steve Schreiber on Aug 23, 2011 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions

I think since he got traded, and the lead-up to hit, a lot more people appreciated him

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Aug 23, 2011 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Beltran made a difficult position look easy.Best defensive outfielder we've ever had and I have seen them all.

by Putnan Prince on Aug 23, 2011 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions

well

i’ve found all the comments here pretty interesting.. appreciate getting the feedback and giving me a better perspective, though I still personally feel that Angel would have had a better season had he spent it batting 2nd.

"You're boring. You probably don’t even drink beer while you watch baseball."

by WinstonSmith on Aug 23, 2011 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Hard to disprove the effect of psychological factors in one season by one player

But most research says that these guys are professionals who hit pretty much the same in every situation or lineup spot over a large enough statistical sample.

The fact that he’s been hitting a very Pagan-like .287/.344/.416 since his horrible pre(?)-injury April suggests that he’s basically the same hitter he always was.

His real trouble this year has been on defense, where he’s looked strangely lost in CF. Hopefully it’s just a “fielding slump”.

by psiogen on Aug 25, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions