New York Mets Daily Farm System Report - 8/25/11

What are Pagan’s #‘s after he came back from injury and his awful start? I’m guesstimating .290avg, .340obp, .425slg, 20 steals?

The strikeout issues are a huge deal when you consider what he is now and what his ceiling could be. That’s the difference between him being a solid big league starter and a 5th OFer. By rushing him up to the majors, you’re pretty much ensuring that he’s a 5th outfielder because he’s not going to have the chance to improve in the minors. As I said below, if he’s added to the 40 man, he’s up against the clock. You don’t want to run out of option years because he obviously still needs some time and if he’s on the 40 man, he’ll probably be yo-yo’d between the majors and minors as an injury replacement.

It’s unnecessary to even consider giving Den Dekker a cup of coffee. He’s not a finished product…you’re only crushing his potential by doing that and for what? 30 at bats in a lost season where he’ll probably struggle and further prove that he needs more seasoning? No thanks. That’s an Omar move. Option years are precious to a team.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis will get the first shot next year anyway, considering he’s Rule V eligible this winter. They need all the room they can get on the 40 man. No reason to unnecessarily clog up a spot with Den Dekker who doesn’t need to be protected yet, especially with all the guys who are Rule V eligible this offseason.

They’ve got a bit of a logjam in the OF with Den Dekker, Lagares, Puello, Vaughn, F! and even Nieuwenhuis, who certainly isn’t a lock to make the opening day big league roster. It’ll be interesting to see how it all shakes out from AAA down to A+ ball.

but not from an options/service time state. Den Dekker could conceivably spend three more years in the minor leagues before being added to the 40 man roster (he won’t, because I’d imagine he is what he is by that point but I’m just saying that he could). That’s potentially 3 years of development time that he’s still afforded without having to make a rash decision on him that could affect his ceiling. Now I understand looking at the power/speed/defense combo and liking that, and indeed that’s a great sign for his prospect stock. However, there are certainly legitimate concerns about whether he’ll make enough contact to hit respectably at the major league level. Remember, to hit for power, you have to make contact. This is a guy who’s hitting .241 as a 24 year old in AA. He’s struck out an alarming 74 times in 222 at bats (good for 28.5% of the time, a 7% increase from St. Lucie). That’s big. If he’s hitting .241 with that level of contact at AA, how’s he going to stay above the mendoza line in the majors against pitcher infinitely better than they are in AA?

I’m guessing that you think that he is what he is? Because I still think if repeats AA maybe he makes a dent in his K% and can turn into a starter. 28% at AA doesn’t portend well to success in the majors, unless he’s a Jason Pridie type 5th outfielder. Also, Jay Bruce never struck out as much as Den Dekker did (his highest was 27% in a lesser sample size in AA). Bruce was in the low 20’s, acceptable for a player with plus power.

I just don’t see how calling him up is anything but a detriment to his growth at this point. I don’t think a couple of unnecessary weeks in the majors is really going to help him in the longterm and I think it does more to hurt him in the long run by starting his clock. Like it or not, Pagan will be back next year, so it’s not like they’ll need a replacement next season. I think Den Dekker is the type of player that’ll need time at AAA anyway. The jump is bigger than people think (look at what Jordany Valdespin and Josh Satin have done in short samples at AAA…Valdespin is at .250/.269/.391 and Satin has seen his BB% and ISO cut by a lot).