The Mets Should Bench Jason Bay For the Rest of the Year

by dontstopbelieving on Aug 26, 2011 12:00 PM EDT

Yes, yes - another Jason Bay post. This is less about what to do with him for the long-term, which is a question for the off-season and beyond, but what to do between now and season's end. My view is that the long-term interests of the team warrant benching Jason Bay so that the Mets can have a closer and better look at players who might - or might not - be useful pieces for the team in upcoming years.

This post will not re-hash stats regarding Jason Bay's continued mediocrity (at best). I assume we're all familiar with them, and more so with the fact that every time he gets on a quasi-hot streat, making us think he's finally "got it together," he follows it up with a period of unfathomable suckitude. I have no idea if Bay will ever figure things out, or whether moving in the fences at Citi might help him. The point is, the fences aren't moving between now and October, and how can the Mets best serve their long-term interests now?

What really got me thinking about this was Nick Evans' big game against Philly. I have no idea if Nick Evans will be a useful Major League player. What I do know is that sitting him on the bench isn't the way to find out. That's underscored by the fact that until Wednesday, Nick was OPS-ing .779, and now he's OPS-ing .914. When one game can swing his overall numbers that much, it's clear that his overall major league stats this year can't be evaluated due to their small sample size.

Which brings us back to Bay, to whom no small-sample-size caveats apply. We know what Jason Bay is, at least for now, which a touch over a replacement player (0.4 WAR this year). Maybe at some point he figures things out, maybe he doesn't. Maybe he plays winter ball this year (although I doubt it); maybe he comes back to Spring Training a new man. In any event, if that happens and he rediscovers things, we'll all be happy. But I'd say the odds are against it after 2 years of mediocrity. And given those long odds, I'd much rather see if some of our younger players are viable options for LF next year and beyond in the event that he doesn't figure things out. So why not give Nick Evans a glove and stick him out there? Call up Josh Satin and let him play first. Or stick Satin in left, whichever one you think might actually be able to play passable defense. At this point, what do we really have to lose?

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Comments

EVANS

Nothing wrong with doing this. I hate to damn Evans with faint praise, but I don’t believe he can be any worse than Bay. If he does well, it would make moving / releasing Bay much easier. Or he could increase his own trade value.

by MDMETSFAN on Aug 26, 2011 12:43 PM EDT reply actions

who?

they aren’t going to bench Nay unfortunately.

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Aug 26, 2011 1:16 PM EDT reply actions

If they were competing I would understand that

But at this point, what do you have to lose? Whether or not he plays in the last 30 some odd games of the season is irrelevant; in May or June maybe, but at this point we have already paid him for most of a season of being barely above replacement. Going forward, what difference does it make? Its not like we are paying him $16 million to mostly sit on the bench for a season

"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage

by blueandorange4life on Aug 26, 2011 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions

It'd be much more important to bench Bay if the Mets were contending

by anonymous on Aug 26, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 7 recs

Probably not a good move

Benching him indefinitely seems the type of move to spark a Player’s Union grievance filing (even though he is sucking badly).

That aside, though, I have no problem leaving left field empty, and seeing how good that goes for the team. If no fielder in left does decently, I don’t know if it’ll net him some kind of starting job anywhere, but it’ll at least open Sandy/Terry’s eyes, that they have a good utility guy in him.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Aug 26, 2011 2:14 PM EDT reply actions

I highly doubt there would be a grievance

since he has not played well. The union gets involved when you bench a guy in order to prevent him from reaching incentives. I don’t think there are any incentives for Bay this year. Plus, even when incentives were involved, the union didn’t jump in when the Mets just outright released Alex Cora, who was nearing his vest. There’s no way you could argue that the Mets would be acting in bad faith even if incentives were at issue (which I don’t think there are). And finally, especially when you’re talking one month – September – of a team going nowhere, I highly doubt there would be issues.

by dontstopbelieving on Aug 26, 2011 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions

When high profile players are involved- unlike Alex Cora- I don't think it matters much

Jason Bay sucks, but the perception that he sucks still isn’t firmly in place, because he’s Jason Bay, and he has the history of having been good not too long ago. I don’t know either if anyone would file a grievance- him himself, someone on behalf of him, whoever else- but it’s just something that could theoretically happen. I’d much prefer seeing someone else in LF for the rest of the year, as opposed to him.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/12)
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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Aug 26, 2011 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Subject line should say: When high profile players aren't involve- like Alex Cora

wrote something different then changed part of it…

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/12)
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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Aug 26, 2011 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions

I just don't see the grounds for a grievance

Again, if the team was acting to prevent a guy from reaching an incentive he’d otherwise reach (e.g. if the Mets had converted K-Rod to a setup man), fine. I even get why under the CBA you can’t send veterans down to the minors w/o their permission, because the lifestyle upheaval is huge even if you keep making your major league salary. But just benching a guy who will receive his full salary, travel with the team, stay in nice hotels, etc.? I just don’t see the union getting involved.

by dontstopbelieving on Aug 26, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

There’s no possible reason for the union to get involved if Bay gets benched or cut, since nobody would be trying to deprive him of his contractual pay. Contracts don’t guarantee anyone playing time.

by anonymous on Aug 26, 2011 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Looking at a bunch of past grievances, they're all money related

So you’re probably right. I thought the Union fought for ‘status’, and such, and was the specter of the Player’s Union was the reason starters got pushed out there beyond their expiration date (Posada, Dunn, Bay, Figgins, etc.).

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/12)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Aug 26, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions

How can they file a grievance

A team’s goal is to win games, Jason Bay is not helping them win games, so they have a right to bench him. It’s not like K-rod where they would have been benching him so his option wouldn’t vest.

by Evan_S on Aug 26, 2011 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Grievance?

Not in this case. Jason Bay is having an awful, awful season and on top of that, it’s not like they’re depriving him of some money or option. This season has no effect on his 2014 vesting option, so there’s really nothing that the union could fight. The fact is Jason Bay is bad, so he’ll go on the bench and there’s nothing the union can do about it.

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by Steve Schreiber on Aug 26, 2011 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Do we really not know what Evans is?

He’s got about a season’s worth of PAs in AAA as a 23-25-year-old. His line there is .275/.341/.465. He did a little better in about a season’s worthy of AA, but really, you ought to be tearing up AA as a 24-year-old if you’re ever going to do anything in the majors. He’s generally been adequate fielding corner spots, though not good, because he’s simply that that athletic or limber. He’s never been able to do anything against righties; he’s always been pretty all-around effective against lefties. Adjusting for sample sizes, his numbers in his cups-of-coffee in the bigs 2008-2011 look pretty similar.

In other words, I think we know pretty well that he’d better not be starting in left field full time next year, at least not against righties; and I think we know that he’ll be fine making a handful of starts there and elsewhere against lefties, as a back-up/righty pinch-hitter type. Basically, he’s probably going to be next year’s Scott Hairston (plus some OBP, minus some home runs, minus some fielding flexibility). I think that’s much more than we know about what Bay’s going to do next year.

by djletz on Aug 26, 2011 2:37 PM EDT reply actions

Who?

can’t be worse than the overpaid pile of crap in leftfield right now

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Aug 26, 2011 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Evans

Even if he’s only good against left handed pitching, platooning him with a left handed bat, maybe Pridie or someone else, I think still nets more results than putting Bay out there everyday. A team can go very far with a platoon in LF. (i.e. Shane Spencer and Ricky Ledee)

by MetsCity on Aug 27, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions

I think that kind of a platoon would be a last resort.

Being better than Bay isn’t saying all that much at this point. I’d imagine if Bay is on the Opening Day roster and still struggles, Captain Kirk gets the first shot at taking over the job by May, where he’ll go out to RF and they’ll slide Duda over to LF. I don’t think they’ll go all that long with such little production out there in LF. If that happens, Evans would be a perfect platoon partner for Nieuwenhuis, who still has had his struggles with lefties, even in his solid half-year at AAA. Plus, he could also get some at bats if Duda or Davis needs a rest throughout the year.

I like Evans but I don’t know if I see him as a full time starter on a good team. Doesn’t mean he can’t be a good bench player, though.

Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
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by Steve Schreiber on Aug 27, 2011 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Evans should still play everyday the rest of the season.

by Evan_S on Aug 27, 2011 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh definitely.

Although, I’d like to see a little of Lutz or Satin if they came up.

Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
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by Steve Schreiber on Aug 27, 2011 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Isn't Kirk's defense shaky also? With Duda,Pagan,Kirk and Evans in this outfield the Mets had better be prepared

for a merry go’ round on the bases.

by Putnan Prince on Aug 27, 2011 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions

It's was questionable though looking better in CF

so he should be more than fine in the corners.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.

by Ogre39666 on Aug 27, 2011 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions

And Pagan should be fine.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.

by Ogre39666 on Aug 27, 2011 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Duda has looked surprisingly good in right.Gets a good jump on balls to make up for his lumberness.

by Putnan Prince on Aug 27, 2011 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Kirk plays very solid defense, actually.

There have been some questions regarding his range in center field, but a lot of people think he could stick there for a few years at least and be average. In a corner, though, he’d be a plus outfielder. Plenty of range for a corner, good arm, etc.

Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.

by Steve Schreiber on Aug 27, 2011 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Personally, I'm most "worried" about his offense

In those 220 plate appearances in AAA before he got hurt, he hit .298/.403/.505 with a really high 26.7% strikeout rate (which is down from last season, which, even though high, is a good sign), but more importantly, a .407 BABIP. If you crank those numbers down to what they’d be with even a .300 or .325 BABIP, those AAA numbers aren’t nearly as shiny- the elevated BB rate was nice, though.

I really think Nieuwenhuis needs to spend at least half the season next year in AAA. His .269/.363/.448 line in Buffalo is nice, but it’s in 83 at-bats, and 354 plate appearances, and a BABIP of .362, which doesn’t seem sustainable (at the MLB level, anyway). I don’t think we should jump the gun. I mean, look how long Tampa Bay kept Jennings in AAA. That’s another thing- I don’t think he should be called-up until he passes the point where we won’t waste a year on his arbitration eligibility.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/12)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Aug 27, 2011 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, that BABIP is high.

He’s always been a high BABIP hitter in the minors, though, something he’ll need to have in order to hit for a decent batting average in the majors with his K rate. I agree that he could use more minor league time, especially coming off a shoulder injury and only playing in 53 games at AAA. The returns were good early on but not nearly enough of a sample size to prove he’s ready.

Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.

by Steve Schreiber on Aug 27, 2011 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions