Should The Mets Have Behaved Differently At The Trade Deadline?
I'm not sure what to make of the 2011 Mets, and I suspect Sandy Alderson and his staff found themselves in a similar quandary as the 31 July trade deadline approached — and then passed. All told, the Mets made just two deals: they traded Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers three weeks ago for a couple of players still to be named, and they dealt Carlos Beltran to the Giants last week for Zack Wheeler.
The first of those deals didn't appreciably hurt the Mets' chances of doing whatever it is they're going to do this season with respect to the Wild Card race. Rodriguez is a fine closer, but the drop-off from him to Jason Isringhausen (or whomever) is hardly noticeable, and at the very least it was worth it just to get out from under Rodriguez's terrifying 2012 vesting option, which option has since been negotiated away by Scott Boras in favor of a slightly larger buyout from Milwaukee.
The second deal definitely hurts the Mets in the short term, as the difference between Beltran and, say, Justin Turner (assuming Lucas Duda and Daniel Murphy are regulars with or without Beltran, so in Beltran's absence Duda shifts to right, Murphy to first, and Turner from the bench to second) is considerable, plus the defensive difference between Beltran and Duda in right can't be overstated.
On balance, the 2011 Mets are certainly worse than if they hadn't made any trades at all, but should they have behaved differently at the deadline? That is, should they have sold off all of their other nonessential major leaguers and emphatically turned the page to 2012? Or, should they have made a minor deal or two to better position this team to make a run at the Wild Card in a race without an obvious Goliath? Sandy Alderson has already said that he made a few phone calls in an effort to bring in another bullpen arm for the stretch run, but obviously found either the pitchers on offer or the demands thereof to be something short of desirable.
I think the Mets played this one perfectly, with Alderson using an even-handed approach to add a top-shelf starter to the farm system while avoiding a complete thrashing of the big league team, which latter accomplishes two things:
- It keeps clubhouse morale from being torpedoed by an overt surrender of the 2011 season; and
- It keeps fans interested — to whatever extent they were already interested — enough to continue watching games, buying tickets, and so forth.
The corollary to #1 is that Jose Reyes, whose re-signing will be the team's top priority this offseason, doesn't feel like Alderson has given up on him or this team and will hopefully carry whatever good will that created into his contract negotiations when the season ends.
Ignoring these benefits of a laissez-faire trade deadline approach and instead embracing a thoroughgoing capitulation to the Mets' narrowing playoff hopes, Alderson could probably have brought back some organizational filler for free-agents-to-be Isringhausen, Tim Byrdak, Scott Hairston, and Willie Harris, but in so doing he would have waved the white flag for 2011, possibly lost the team and its fans in the process, and all for what? Some mid-level minor league depth?
No, that would have been far worse. In the end, Alderson improved the 2013 Mets at a moderate expense to the 2011 team, while leaving the latter intact enough to make the next two months interesting. Despite their current four-game losing streak — the last three of which were sealed in their opponents' last turns at bat — the Mets remain 7.5 games back of the Braves with six games against the Wild Card leaders between now and 1 September. Their playoff odds are long and the remaining schedule is only getting shorter, but in staking his claim to the middle ground, Alderson has kept an eye on the future without completely abandoning hope for the present.
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Joe Sheehan has made the arguement
That the Mets absolutely should have traded Reyes at the deadline and, that unless they are able to sign him at a discount while keeping him, it was a blunder not to. His arguement boiled down to they would have a chance to sign him on the market anyway at the market rate, and they missed an opportunity to seriously upgrade their farm system(say Mesoraco and Alonso from the Reds). Now they are looking at paying market price or getting two draft picks.
I don’t really agree, but I think my Mets fan bias might play a part in that.
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by Jeffrey Paternostro on Aug 3, 2011 10:12 AM EDT reply actions
the thing is
that so rarely happens. When a team trades a player, whatever loyalty or hometown discount goes completely out the window. I feel like it is much more common for a player in Jose’s position to be traded, then sign with the team that traded FOR him (i did no research on this claim…)
Do I think Jose will sign for less to stay here? No way… Jose. But, all else being equal, he may decide to stay with the only team he has known who decided to keep him rather then pawn him off to the highest bidder.
That, and if he does leave we get those draft picks, so its not like he will leave for nothing.
I think it was Bobby V who said: "You are never as good as you are when you are at your best, and you are not as bad as when you are at your worst."
This.
I signed in to make this exact point and you had already made it. Trading Reyes would not only been selling 2011 down the river, but likely 2012 as well. Cliff Lee did return to the Phillies, but I think that was a rare exception.
I do think that Jose may take a small hometown discount, but I wouldn’t count on it.
I agree with Eric regarding Alderson’s approach. Especially in light of the fact that the Brewers’ system isn’t exactly top notch, so the two PTBNL in the K-Rod deal will also likely be in the org. filler range.
Right
there appear to be two problems with Sheehan’s reasoning (or at least your explanation of his reasoning). It assumes:
1. There is no negative value associated with trading Reyes w/r/t his desire to return to the Mets (viz., gbaked’s point)
2. There is no value whatever to the exclusive negotiating window afforded the player’s former team.
I think you’ll find that these are both demonstrably false. Add to this the value of the Mets’ first-round pick next year (or second-round pick if they finish badly enough), which they would doubtless have to forfeit to whomever they traded Reyes to, and the argument for trading Reyes because “it costs them nothing and it doesn’t affect their ability to re-sign him” falls apart.
by Eric Simon on Aug 3, 2011 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
Yeah
I think they sign him, and I think if Sandy thought they weren’t going to be able to, he would have dealt him. But now if they can’t get a deal done, they just walk away with the picks and a media firestorm. So the stakes are higher, and they may have to go to the wall to get a deal done.
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by Jeffrey Paternostro on Aug 3, 2011 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
I think it is an appeasement to the fans
They make a big offer and it is not accepted, Reyes is the bad guy. The trade traid him, the team is the bad guy.
At the end of the day, this business is about fostering and maintaining your fan base.
"Good hitter. Shitty team -- good hitter."
by Dandy Salderson on Aug 3, 2011 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
FIRE SALE
I know I sound like a crazy disgruntled fan saying this, but a fire sale would have been better. Trade all the players mentioned, including Reyes.Take the chance that he will test the free agent market this offseason & make him the same offer as if he stayed on the Mets. And I have to respectfully disagree about the value of draft picks in the MLB draft. I am not saying the draft is unimportant, but it is not the NFL or NBA draft where draftees can have an immediate impact. Better to trade for prospects who are closer to the Majors from another system.
I would only support the fire sale idea if I thought the Mets were 3-4+ off from competing
I personally don’t think that is the case, being as we do have some good young players and will have more financial flexibility going forward. Therefore, I wouldn’t trade Reyes.
Oh the burning
It burns me!
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by GenJackRipper on Aug 3, 2011 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Whoooooooooooooooooooooooooo's kidding Whoooooooooooooooooooooooooo?
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-Adam Savage
by blueandorange4life on Aug 3, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Is the market for fire that strong?
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
by Ogre39666 on Aug 3, 2011 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think I may not have placed enough emphasis on the sale.
"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."
by BobbyV_Incognito on Aug 3, 2011 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
the problem with this is
that only reyes would realistically bring back any prospects close to the majors. a complete fire sale, as you suggest, would be trades for the sake of trades. the mets would get back mid level guys who might never make it up. do we really need to trade scott hairston for ANOTHER kid sitting in AA ball?
the other issue is that the mets have no shortstop near the major league level who is anything comparable to the value of jose and it is unlikely the mets would get back a major league ready shortstop near that level. if the team we’re trading with had a guy like that ready to break through, why would they need reyes?
its creating a need for the sake of change, and not addressing the real problem.
Keeping Reyes is essential, yes
But the entire rest of the “fire sale” would probably be small-scale deals for prospects who are a gamble at best, as you say. I think there’s an argument to be made that there’s no harm doing a little more gambling on prospects in a gap year like this.
maybe
i mean who’s really going to miss scott hairston anyway if he gets dealt, right? i just think there’s very little to be gained by trading him, at the same time weakening an already weak bench.
if only there were a major league ready player who can play corner outfield, infield and be a viable bat off the bench, BUT WHOOOOOOO?
WELL THEN TRADE SOME MOUER
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by Bobby Baseball on Aug 3, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Well played, MOUER
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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Aug 3, 2011 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
MOUER, MOUER, MOUER
Howdayalikeit? Howdayalikeit?
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If they were smart, they'd have tried to trade Izzy or Capuano
and see what they could get there. Or maybe even Gee, since his stock is about as high as it can get. But, maybe there was nothing. This whole thing about Izzy being a ‘mentor’ to Parnell and Beato is rubbish and overrated. I’m fine with a couple draft picks for Reyes if that’s all they get. I’d selfishly rather watch Jose play another 60 games with the Mets and just enjoy watching him some more. If they traded him, the odds of him coming back would be a lot less, and they need to stock the odds in their favor as much as possible.
i think they did
and weren’t too enamored with what they were getting for them. There’s a good shot that Cap becomes a type-a or (more likely) a -b free agent this year, which gives the mets a chance to draft their own prospect, rather than get someone’s already graded c-level prospect.
I believe Izzy also was making noise that he would retire if he were traded.
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by Cory Braiterman on Aug 3, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
The way I remember it, he said he 'accept' a trade to St. Louis…
…but otherwise wouldn’t have anything to lose by retiring. So, basically I’m agreeing with you.
I don't think there's any chance Capuano becomes a Type A Free Agent
Type B, maybe.
Other than that, though I agree with you.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Aug 3, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not sure where everybody's getting the "Capuano as a Type B free agent" thing.
According to MLBTR’s unofficial Elias rankings, the threshold for Type B status for NL starting pitchers is Chris Narveson’s 57.388. Capuano, meanwhile, is way off, sitting at 31.186 as of Tuesday morning.
I don’t know how accurate these rankings are but it doesn’t seem like he’s going to have enough to reach Type B status. It seems like he just didn’t pitch enough last year to help prop up his ranking.
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by Steve Schreiber on Aug 3, 2011 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I thik Gee and Fister are similar pitchers
Do you think we could have gotten a similar haul for him?
Bobby Baseball - The future of Amazin' Avenue.
by Bobby Baseball on Aug 3, 2011 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
yes
I glanced at the people and the stats they got from Cleveland for Fister and it looks very unimpressive. An AA corner outfielder, a mediocre arm with questions, and an unimpressive guy off the 25 man roster. I’d like to think that ANY team, even the Mets, could’ve and should’ve gone after Fister for that haul.
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Mel Gibson shot the movie Apocalypto on location at the center of my taint.
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by Cory Braiterman on Aug 3, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree that the Mets or any team should've gone after Fister
But I would say that Fister is a good amount better than Gee
i was about to type that
Then i did a side-by-side comp of their stats, and nearly every one leans slightly towards Gee, this year, career, etc. They’re pretty much the same pitcher, although the argument could be made that putting up the same #s in the AL is harder.
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Mel Gibson shot the movie Apocalypto on location at the center of my taint.
-Fake Emcee
by Cory Braiterman on Aug 3, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
-
Gee Career:
5.58 K/9
3.72 BB/9
14.8 K%
9.8 BB%
4.13 FIP
4.52 xFIP
110 xFIP-
4.57 SIERA
140 innings
Fister Career:
5.18 K/9
1.88 BB/9
13.8 K%
5 BB%
3.72 FIP
4.08 xFIP
99 xFIP-
4.19 SIERA
378 innings
WAR this year:
Gee: 0.8
Fister: 3.0
Categories Gee is better in are in italics
Gee is probably better
Not by much, but…
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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Aug 3, 2011 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Gee could also be considered a small sample size.
traveling photoshooper.
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Gee's
Team friendly contract should keep him around for the next few years. If he turns into a reliable middle or back end of the rotation guy there’s no harm in that. Please don’t make them lean on the likes of Dave Williams and Brian Lawrence again.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Aug 3, 2011 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions
You're absolutely right on the contract.
If you think Sandy isn’t looking for an average major league pitcher making the (or close to) the major league minimum, you’re nuts.
If Alderson believes Gee can be a viable 4th or 5th starter (which he’s gone a long way toward doing already) he’ll be happy to have him. I guess even if he can’t be that, there’s no harm in having him as the 6th or 7th starter in a worst-case scenario.
Even though the Mets financial problems were enormously overstated, you can’t overstate the value of major league caliber talent under team control.
"It don't make you a bad person" - Ron Bennington
Yeah, this.
Unless Sandy’s getting bowled over with a ridiculous offer to improve another position, there’s probably no reason to deal Gee at this point. Not to say he’s a great pitcher (he’s not) but a young, cheap, reliable back of the rotation innings eater is invaluable to a club. That way, you don’t have to overpay the Jon Garland’s and Jason Marquis’ of the world on the free agent market.
I’d say that maybe in 2-3 years, when Gee starts becoming more a little more expensive in arbitration and some more quality arms are (hopefully) coming up from the minors, is the point where you look to deal him.
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by Steve Schreiber on Aug 3, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Where'd that extra "more" come from?
Oh well…I’ve Keith’d myself, I guess.
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by Steve Schreiber on Aug 3, 2011 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
What if Izzy was going to refuse the new assignment?
And lets not forget that if he’s willing to pitch in 2012, we’ll need him for the bullpen depth.
__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
I approve
Moderation in all things should have been the battle cry here and I think Alderson did that nicely. He didn’t make any trades for the sake of making trades (Omar would have done something nonsensical like trading Izzy and Cap for a C level prospect). Izzy is gone after this season (most likely), and I’d rather get the pick from Cap leaving then trade him, although depending on how his season ends I wouldn’t mind resigning him to a reasonable deal.
As for Gee, as we have repeatedly said on this site, having a cost controlled, solid mid – back end of the rotation starter is a valuable thing. Even if this is the most we will ever see from Gee, he is worth keeping around, if only to prevent the end of the rotation merry go round of the mid 00’s. Besides, he is young, perhaps there is still room for improvement. Probably foolishly optimistic but I can dream right?
"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
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by blueandorange4life on Aug 3, 2011 12:06 PM EDT reply actions
I think they should've sold at least a bit harder
There were a bunch of inessential players who might’ve brought something back in small-scale deals: Turner, say, or one of the Veteran Catchers, bullpen arms, Pelfrey, et cetera. But there are good arguments against this — the system is already stuffed with the C-level prospects that dealing guys like this would bring back, and the Mets don’t really need salary relief that desperately at this point. So I guess I’m saying I more or less trust Sandy enough at this point that I’m guessing another great deadline offer just wasn’t on the table — the Mets were (and are) in the position of being able to shop around, and not needing to make a deal, and in that situation you shouldn’t make deals unless it actually helps make something better.
thing is, the only player that has true value is Reyes other than K-Rod and Beltran
and trading Reyes away would’ve sent the fan base completely bonkers. On the other hand, I also thought it was a mistake to hang onto Izzy, Caps etc.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
I think what they did was just about perfect
Beyond Beltran and Reyes, all we were going to get was minor league fodder for our guys (we’ll see on Krod, but I actually think we’ll get some interesting if less than perfect guys). As much as I love Beltran, he just shouldn’t be part of our future. Reyes should. I can’t argue with the moves at all.
After Omar, it's like night and day having Sandy
I’m still getting used to this strange concept… I think it’s called “competence”? I’m happy with whatever the new front office wants to do, for now.
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Or if it's easier,
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by Steve Schreiber on Aug 3, 2011 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions
What would we have gotten for him?
Nothing of consequence and to run the risk of alienating the players and fans by essentially giving up was not worth it.
If we had a better bullpen or more options in the minors, then sure. But we don’t. Sandy played it straight and it was the right move even though Izzy has fallen off a cliff.
There's also a real chance he gets compensation at seasons end
He’s very close to type B status at the moment, and closing should only boost his value to elias.
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 3, 2011 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
The only question, I guess is
whether he’s truly intent on retiring after the season. It’d be nice to sneak out an extra top 50 draft pick if possible and I don’t see any other possibilities on the roster at the moment (I’m not banking on Hairston, Harris, Capuano or Byrdak getting there).
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by Steve Schreiber on Aug 3, 2011 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
































