Amazin' Avenue Book Club: Moneyball, Chapter Seven

by James Kannengieser on Sep 19, 2011 12:00 AM EDT

After a brief hiatus, the AA Book Club is back to continue its discussion of Moneyball. And just in time for the release of the film adaptation later this week! In case you missed it, here are the first six chapter discussions:

On to "Chapter Seven: Giambi's Hole".

The cheeky sounding chapter title refers to the giant chasm left in the A's lineup after Jason Giambi departed Oakland to sign with the New York Yankees before the 2002 season. Giambi led the AL in OBP and SLG in 2001 as the A's scored 884 runs. Due to well-known payroll constraints, the A's could not sign a player anywhere near Giambi's caliber. So Billy Beane turns to -- say it with me now -- undervalued players to fill the void, specifically David Justice, Scott Hatteberg and Jeremy Giambi. These three are adept at working counts and laying off pitches outside the strike zone. Their approach at the plate -- their process -- is what Beane and co. are looking for in a hitter. Paul DePodesta provides a quote about this in the chapter that captures one of Amazin' Avenue's favorite concepts:

"It's looking at process rather than outcomes," Paul says. "Too many people make decisions based on outcomes rather than process."

DePo blogged about this a few years back, creating the often-cited process vs. results matrix:

The chapter devotes many words to the value of plate discipline, OBP, working counts, etc. cementing in the minds of many fans the idea that Moneyball = OBP. That perception still seems to exist today.

Beane's control of managerial strategy is discussed. An anecdote is relayed in which A's manager Art Howe confirms with outfielder Adam Piatt in the dugout that the sacrifice bunt he laid down was his own doing. Howe wants to avoid the wrath of the puppet master Beane, who decides when the A's are to bunt and steal. Much was made about this during the Mets manager search last fall. Would the new Mets skipper be a slave to Sandy Alderson and his win probability matrix? Would there be a direct phone line from the front office to the dugout? It appears the answer to both questions is no.

Mets-centric appearances/mentions in Chapter Seven:

David Justice, member of the Mets organization for one week, traded to the A's in December 2001

Discussion questions:

1. Pick some Mets-related events/signings/trades and determine which quadrant of the process vs. results matrix they would fall in. Example: signing Oliver Perez for 3/36 was Poetic Justice (that's a gimme).

2. General discussion of Terry Collins' in-game strategy as manager. Approve? Disapprove? What are his strengths? Weaknesses? Do you think the front office has much say in his decision-making?

3. Of Sandy Alderson, Paul DePodesta and J.P. Ricciardi, who would you most want to have a beer (or soda) with and why?

4. David Justice has a cool last name. If you had to change your last name, what would you choose? For our purposes, it also has to double as a common noun, like "justice" or "hose".

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Comments

lol

I mean – yay, book club!

by SuperT on Sep 19, 2011 12:04 AM EDT reply actions

Giambi's Hole

Pause.

What Would Matt Szczur Do?
Fact on Villanova Sports

by Hoyadestroya85 on Sep 19, 2011 12:14 AM EDT reply actions

I wonder which gets finished first:

Moneyball, or the 50 Greatest Mets of All Time?

"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."

by BobbyV_Incognito on Sep 19, 2011 1:00 AM EDT reply actions

Good question

I was completely floored when I saw this. James K must have had a really boring weekend.

Dear friends, please temporarily stop your footsteps To our website Walk
around A look at Maybe you’ll find happiness in your sight shopping heaven and earth You’ll find our price is more suitable for you.

by Coolpapabell on Sep 19, 2011 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Moneyball

Neither 50 Greatest Mets of All Time list is ever going to get finished

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Sep 19, 2011 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Using Hu as a batter in an MLB game

Poetic justice doesn’t begin to describe it.
Mix of both. Bunting with your middle-lineup guys is Bill Walton voice TEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRIBLE. Seems to do a good job motivating people however.
Sandy. Go with the head honcho, duh.
I got nothing. I’ll go with something short, since my last name is painfully long: Cory Sky

The artful muppet formerly known as KrmtDfrog.
Please read my sardonic wit and over-blown sense of self over at headkicklegend.com

by Cory Braiterman on Sep 19, 2011 1:10 AM EDT reply actions

things i did not know until now:

bracketing your words with asterisks makes it bold

The artful muppet formerly known as KrmtDfrog.
Please read my sardonic wit and over-blown sense of self over at headkicklegend.com

by Cory Braiterman on Sep 19, 2011 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I thought that was weird too. Oh well...

Oh pissing blimey there's jam coming out of the walls!

by TWilliAM on Sep 19, 2011 7:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Ooh. Fun.

1. D.J. Carrasco – Don’t sign relievers to multi-year deals unless their last names start with River, their first names start with Marian and they were born in Panama.

2. Terry’s strategy of batting crappy hitters like Jason Pridie high in the order and his (seemingly) newly acquired love for bunting with the position player are both quite Jerry-esque. However, he’s done a good job keeping the team motivated and not throwing his players under the bus. I find most managers to be incompetent nitwits. Terry’s sadly way ahead of the curve. He would never, for example, play someone like Jose Constanza over someone like Lucas Duda.

3. Sandy, obviously. I have a theory about the next market inefficiency that i’d like to share with him. ;)

4. “Jake Sock” has a nice ring to it.

Oh pissing blimey there's jam coming out of the walls!

by TWilliAM on Sep 19, 2011 8:11 AM EDT reply actions

Sadly, I kept notes when I decided to read this the second time around (for the book club).

Here are a few things I found interesting:

One of the more enjoyable components to this chapter was AVM’s work with their Win Share model, which was inspired by derivatives valuation. Valuing situational components that contribute or subtract from runs and therefore wins, is pretty awesome (mankind is smart).

I also found the question of nature v. nurture regarding plate discipline a fascinating issue. Depo actually spoke about this a few months back. He seemed to suggest that plate discipline might not be a learned skill, based on his own experience in minor league development. I think this idea is very important in player valuation. Frenchy will always be what he is.

Plate disciple and the results matrix is good, but anything taken to its extreme is a bad thing. Out rightly dismissing talented players because of their approach can be myopic. An example of this is Miguel “Swings at everything” Tejada. It is lost on the GM and the Author that he provided that team with roughly a WAR of 4. That ain’t bad. Vlad swings at everything, but he also hits everything really hard. He will see you all in the Hall of Fame.

Pitch count probability is intuitive, but no less fascinating, and also the idea of being aware of what you can and can’t hit. I think Ted Williams’ hit chart really illustrates this well. Hitters will have pitches that they can’t hit, so why help the pitcher by swinging at them. Force the pitcher to make his pitch, and make him pay if he misses. It’s not about making contact, it’s about making the right kind of contact. Swinging at the ball in your “joy zones” as Ted called it, will increase the quality of the batted ball. I think this idea should be drilled into young kids.

Lewis being overzealous with his prose:
He was like some tragic figure in Greek mythology whose offense against the gods had caused them to design for him this exquisite torture: you must desperately see what you cannot bear. *barf

by Coolpapabell on Sep 19, 2011 11:21 AM EDT reply actions

Damn

I downloaded the book a while back, but I don’t have it anymore. Any of you kind folks have a download link?

Now onto the questions:

1. Jason Bay for 4/66(plus 5th year option): Bad process, bad results. The process behind this deal was bad from the jump considering Omar focused solely on getting a “power guy,” while not bothering to focus on other areas of the organization. Secondly, he based the signing & not taking a look on HDay7 due to Bay being a pull hitter who’d fit better in Citi. And lastly, Minaya & Co. could’ve gotten the same production in the form of Josh Willingham or Mike Cameron.

Johan Santana trade & 7 year contract extension: Good process, bad result. At the time, he was still one of the best pitchers in MLB & the trade package the Mets gave up was perceived to be weaker than what was reportedly offered by Boston and the Yankees. Maybe the Mets should’ve given him a shorter deal considering the injury risk with pitchers(as an aside, I’d never go more than 5 years for a starting pitcher, no matter their age or performance), but after 2008 it seemed like he was gonna be a good-great pitcher for at least the next couple seasons. But, that didn’t happen.

Carlos Beltran 7 year deal: Good process, good result. He’s the best outfielder in Mets history. What more do you want?

2. Disapprove. I guess a positive for him is that the players seem to like playing for him & they always give max effort. As for negatives, well…
a. He has this fascination with Willie Harris that I don’t understand. He had a good opening series against Florida, but after that he’s sucked.
b. Sacrifice bunting. Lots and lots of sacrifice bunting.
c. His repeated use of ~~Toyota Irrigation~~ Ryota Igarashi in high leverage situations.
I don’t think the FO has much say in his in-game decisions. I don’t think they do because all 3 of them know that giving away outs with position players is ass-backwards, even more so with a team that’s league average at best on offense.

3. I’d probably go with Alderson. He’d have a lot of great stories to tell about being in the Marines, Harvard & his years in MLB.

4. Brian Powers is a cool name.

What's that about?

by Brian. on Sep 19, 2011 5:09 PM EDT reply actions