Mets 6, Nationals 3: With a Little Bit of Luck, You Just Might Win
by Chris McShane on Sep 4, 2011 4:53 PM EDT
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Despite a pretty poor start by Mike Pelfrey and a series of questionable managerial moves by Terry Collins, the Mets got took the weekend series from the Nationals.
Before Big Pelf got into trouble, however, the Mets took a lead in the top of the third inning. Josh Satin, making his big league debut, singled to lead off the inning, and Mike Nickeas singled, too. Pelfrey bunted them both over, and Ruben Tejada, filling in at the top of the lineup to give Jose Reyes a day off, singled to bring home both runners.
If there's one thing that everyone should know by now about Pelfrey, he's very dependent on luck and defense. If he mixes in a few walks and doesn't have both of those things working in his favor, it's a perfect recipe for a disaster of an outing.
In the fourth, Pelfrey walked Jayson Werth to start the inning and allowed a single to Rick Ankiel. Danny Espinosa hit a fly ball to right field that should have been an out, but it sailed over the flailing glove of Lucas Duda. Werth scored easily, and Ankiel advanced to third while Espinosa pulled in at second. A Chris Marrero ground out tied the game, and a Wilson Ramos double put the Nationals ahead 3-2.
Pelfrey escaped the fourth inning and got a quick pair of outs in the fifth inning before he nearly put the game out of reach for the Mets with three consecutive two-out walks to load the bases. Terry Collins may not have a ton of options in the bullpen, but he called upon Ryota Igarashi, the reliever who Mets fans would probably least prefer to pitch in a bases-loaded situation. But the move worked, as Igarashi got a pop up to short to end the inning with the Mets still in the game.
The bats came alive again in the sixth inning, beginning with an absolute bomb of a home run by Lucas Duda to tie the game at three. David Wright, Angel Pagan, and Jason Bay each singled to load the bases, putting an end to Livan Hernandez's afternoon. With Todd Coffey coming in to pitch, Collins pinch hit for Josh Satin with Willie Harris, an unpopular move, to say the least. But once again, the move worked. Harris drilled a groundball single down the right field line to score give the Mets a two-run lead. To top it off, Collins called for a suicide squeeze with Mike Nickeas at the plate, and he laid down a perfect bunt to allow Bay to score easily from third base.
That was the last run of the game for the Mets, but the bullpen didn't allow the Nationals to score, either. Josh Stinson threw two scoreless innings, Jason Isringhausen threw one, and Bobby Parnell got the save, allowing only a two-out walk before putting an end to the game.
SB Nation Coverage
* Traditional Recap
* Boxscore
* Amazin' Avenue Gamethread
* Federal Baseball Gamethread
Win Probability Added
Big winners: Willie Harris, +19.8% WPA
Big losers: Mike Pelfrey, -21.8% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Willie Harris two-run single in the sixth, +19.8% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Danny Espinosa rib-eye double in the fourth, -19.1% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: +3.5% WPA
Total batter WPA: +46.5% WPA
GWRBI!: Willie Harris
Game Thread Roll Call
Nice job by Shea Strausman; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.
| Num | Name | # of Posts |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shea Strausman | 129 |
| 2 | MetsFan4Decades | 123 |
| 3 | BurleighGrimes | 94 |
| 4 | Russ | 83 |
| 5 | Spike Davis | 81 |
| 6 | netsareboss | 59 |
| 7 | aparkermarshall | 59 |
| 8 | KeithsMoustache | 56 |
| 9 | Steve Schreiber | 50 |
| 10 | bigdumbmets | 37 |
161 comments
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Comments
Hit the nail on the head
I facepalmed most of the game due to Terry’s ridiculous decisions. Igarashi with tha bases loaded? Are you kidding me? I was sure he was gonna give up a granny. Harris for Satin considering his numbers this year, and his numbers as a pinch hitter? I think we all expected a strike out. Terry was living well today. The bad thing is that fact that the moves worked out means he’ll keep making the same type of moves.
Agreed.
Luck had a lot to do with this win…
That and some good hitting.
__________________________________________________________________
Really good kid.A very good player.Not a superstar. #BlameWilponz. Never Forget
by ScottfromPeekskill on Sep 4, 2011 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Well even if they didn't work out
I don’t think TC is going to change his ways. He’s been doing this all season. Apparently you can’t teach an old dog new tricks.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.
by Steve Schreiber on Sep 4, 2011 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Here's hoping Harris
won’t be an option off the bench next year and Igarashi should definitely not be wearing a Met uniform either.
by MetsFan4Decades on Sep 4, 2011 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I think our bench is going to be solid, solid, solid
next year. That’s Sandy’s job, and we’ve got so much to work with.
I agree.
There’s a lot of good, cheap options for the bench in Evans, Turner, Pridie, Baxter, Satin, Paulino, Tejada (or Murphy) in house. The only problem is that if Murphy wins the 2B job, Pridie or Baxter is the top lefty bat off the bench, which is a problem (although in comparison to Willie Harris, he’s a slight upgrade). You’d have to think they’ll bring in a veteran (maybe re-sign Hairston or bring in a lefty with some pop) but they have the makings of a nice bench with some versatility and offensive potential.
Also, with the way Evans is playing, it wouldn’t surprise me if they just let Hairston walk and gave Evans that job. He’s been excellent of late.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.
by Steve Schreiber on Sep 4, 2011 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I lobby edit button.
Apparently, Pridie or Baxter as the top lefty bat is a problem, considering I wrote it twice in the same sentence.
D’oh!
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.
by Steve Schreiber on Sep 4, 2011 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Have to give congrats on your faith in Lucas Duda.You were right and I was dead wrong.Kudos to
your patience.
by Putnan Prince on Sep 4, 2011 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey...we both win, right?
Because Lucas Duda is an awesome hitter and he’s a Met.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.
by Steve Schreiber on Sep 4, 2011 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Nickeas in the post-game using the word "gritty" to describe the team
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf. "
– Tug McGraw when asked about his preference for grass or astroturf
ð
"Its only a game, but it helps teach you about life"
by Seaver73 on Sep 4, 2011 5:19 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
team leaser Lucas Duda
I think he has a shot at leading the team in HRs and RBIs. And to thin how fans were maligning him back in May when he came up to sub while Bay was on Paternity leave
"Its only a game, but it helps teach you about life"
by Seaver73 on Sep 4, 2011 5:21 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Pelrey is just impossible to watch
He just can’t put anyone away and has meltdown innings. He is even tougher to watch than Dillon Gee is, which says a lot. I really am hoping he’s non tendered this offseason.
by graves9 on Sep 4, 2011 5:25 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
And you replace his 200 innings with who, exactly?
by Shea Strausman on Sep 4, 2011 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Because thoase 200 innings are so effective
espicially this year. He’s a medicore pitcher that will only get more expensive. Move on.
by graves9 on Sep 4, 2011 5:37 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
how about keep Capuano?
I hear there is this guy coming back from injury who aint too bad, Johan something, I am sure he could be better than Pelf
We have no idea what Johan is going to be able to give us, whether we're talking about quality or quantity.
I think if we’re expecting Johan to be the savior we are making a huge mistake.
by Shea Strausman on Sep 4, 2011 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Johan is a big mystery
We don’t know how many starts or how effective he’ll be. I like Cap but he’s not an innings eater. He has the sixth least innings of pitchers that have made 25 starts this year according to Adam Rubin.
Every staff needs a guy to toss 200 innings and start every fifth day.
Pelf isnt awful for a back of the rotation starter. The problem is the people they have around him. You can’t have a TEAM of back of the rotation starters. The mets really have Dickey and Niese and then…three 5th starters. That’s the problem, not any of cappuano, gee or pelf individually.
by Shea Strausman on Sep 4, 2011 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Yeah, but they can probably find someone to do that...
for a heck of a lot less than Pelf will cost, and even by committee it would be done with no dropoff in quality. Money will be short and wasting it on a sub-par performer as a fifth starter makes no sense. Time to move on.
Pelfrey probably only makes between $5.5M and $6.5M next year.
That’s not horrible. In fact he’d only have to be worth 1.1 and 1.5 wins to be worth it – something he’s done every year he’s been a full-time starter but this year.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
So what you've said is that when he was cheap...
and he was pitching better (up until this year for performance and next year for budget reasons) he was worth having in the rotation (which I agree with you on), but now he’s pitching less effectively and is going to cost more, which is why it’s time to move on.
No.
I’m saying that he’s still pretty cheap and it’s reasonable to expect him to be worth the money. So we should keep him.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
No, we really shouldn't
For one, he’s been worth 2.8 million this year. Two, his WAR this year is 0.6, barely above league average.
His GB rate has dropped for the second consecutive year, and his FB rate has risen starkly this year.
His K rate is a career worst, as is his xFIP.
Keeping Pelfrey next year is akin to saying “We don’t have plans of competing”
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ
The 2011 Mets- Rock bottom: We haven't reached it yet
by Syler on Sep 4, 2011 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
And who will replace those 200 innings while costing less or preforming better and not costing a lot?
Misch? No.
Schwinden? Huge gamble.
Young? You might get 25 innings.
A free agent? Who will be out there that would take <$6M and not be garbage?
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Ding! We have a winner!
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Sep 4, 2011 8:34 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Let's see
Joel Pineiro
Bruce Chen (His xFIP is 4.60, barely above Pelfrey’s)
Jeff Francis
Aaron Cook
Javier Vasquez
are a few that come to mind
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ
The 2011 Mets- Rock bottom: We haven't reached it yet
- Pinero is making $8M and has been worth 0.9 fWAR.
- Bruch Chen has been worth 0.8 fWAR and has only once approached 200 IP (back in 2005).
- Francis is not exactly a lock for 200 IP considering his injury history.
- Aaron Cook is making $9.25M (and on contract for $11M next year with a mutual buyout) and has been worth 0.7 fWAR. Also not likely to be a 200 IP guy ever again after his injuries.
- Vazquez is making $7M and is the same guy that everyone and their mother was convinced was done last year (sound familiar?).
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Durable as you can get and coming off a down year so his price tag will be even more affordable.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Or....will take the ball as often as you give it to him...
and will produce results that will call into question why you did so.
1 year of <1 fWAR doesnt make someone a bad player who has no place on an MLB roster
when it’s been preceded by three years of league average performance, the player is one the right side of 30, and doesn’t command a large salary.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Agreed, but it also doesn't mean...
that someone should be allowed to keep getting the ball if that level of performance isn’t improving. If Pelfrey was pitching at his best, yeah, give him the ball. I think it’s about a season and a half since that’s happened though and the current results don’t argue for looking forward to him taking 30+ starts next year if you want to win.
Two things:
1) We’re not gong to be contenders unless Alderson makes some impossibly awesome moves.
2) Again, who are you going to give those innings to who would be a more affordable contract or a better value?
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
I think we'll be better next year...
but my crystal ball is no better than anyone else’s. Do we resign Reyes? Who gets hurt between now and then? How does Johan come back? As for contention, what injuries happen elsewhere, what trades between here and there, who knows. I think we should be better, particularly if we revert to a normal injury load. And based on what Pelfrey has done this year, a Santana/Misch combo to reach those innings, or better yet just Santana would be find.
Why are we getting rid of an affordable usually average to above average pitcher
before the season starts? We’re not contending next season, we don’t have a lot of money to spend and he’s relatively cheap, and maybe Pelf gets off to a hot and we can trade him for someone useful.
Relatively cheap for what???
If he’s at his best he’s useful. If he’s this year’s version he’s not average or above average, and if he gets hurt or pitches worse than this year he’s worthless. My crystal ball is no better than yours, but the main argument for him seems to be he pitches a bunch of innings, and if there this year’s style, we’d be better off it he didn’t.
From 08-10 he was average to above average
Now he’s below average, he’s not as terrible ans he;s being made out to be and he’s getting paid very little. Unless there is a clear cut better option, there is no point in trading him.
We agree on something...
When he was paid less and pitched better he was o.k. My gripe is more money/less performance doesn’t cut it.
True, and a good chance...
that he’s not as well. Unfortunately neither of us know which it will be.
You can't just say "Oh, we don't know, so let's assuming he'll be worse and DFA him".
If you look at his peripherals, they would indicate that he is due for a correction (for the better).
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
You're assuming his uncharacteristically high HR/9 is the new norm.
You also assuming he get’s a raise.
The first assumption I wouldn’t bet on. The second is largely inconsequential, but still not a great bet.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
What's worse is that people want to DFA him.
That’s not even selling low, it’s essentially refusing to even try to get value in return.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
He doesn't have to be at his best to be worth his contract.
If he is awarded a $5M in arbitration (assuming he wins in arbitration which isn’t a guarantee), all he has to be worth is 1.1 fWAR or there abouts to be worth the contract. If his HR/9 normalizes to his career average (or even half way to his career average from where it’s at now), he’s worth at least 1.1 fWAR.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Who knows what he'll ask for...
in arbitration? That’s more how HE values himself than anything else, and the club will pick a value and it’ll be one or the other. The bottom line is he needs to pitch better.
Then the chances of him winning are even slimmer.
And the chances of him being worth the contract are better.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Joe Blanton
Coming off injury cheapens him
He’s a better pitcher than pelf
etc.
What Would Matt Szczur Do?
Fact on Villanova Sports
by Hoyadestroya85 on Sep 4, 2011 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions
He's making $8.5M and on contract for next year at the same price.
And with the injury it’s unknown if he’ll be able to eat inning like he has.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
my mistake
i thought he was coming off the books this year.
What Would Matt Szczur Do?
Fact on Villanova Sports
by Hoyadestroya85 on Sep 4, 2011 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I see what you're saying but
I just don’t know where you’re finding this pitcher that is similar to Pelf, except cheaper. This pitcher is likely not available on the free agent market and if this player is available on the trade market, you’d have to trade a lot to get them, meaning you might as well just try to acquire a better pitcher if you have to give up a large haul for a Pelfrey-esque pitcher.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.
by Steve Schreiber on Sep 4, 2011 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough...
My point is this, Pelfrey isn’t anything special, and there’s not any great talent in not being anything special – there are LOTS of guys out there than can pull that off. Dickey wasn’t deemed anything special and was available after 2009, but when given a chance he was better than Pelfrey. Gee wasn’t regarded as anything special, and was in house, and while I still don’t view him as a great pitcher, he’s certainly been as effective as Pelf. Capuano was available on an incentive deal this year, and has been better than Pelf. I just fail to see the scarcity in finding a guy who can pitch non-championship quality innings. These guys are available, and with better contract terms on a recurring basis every year. If he’d stayed healthy, maybe Young would have been another. When he was younger, cheaper and had more future potential, Pelfrey made sense. I just don’t think he does anymore. Put it this way, are you ever “excited” to find that Mike Pelfrey is pitching for Mets in a game? Do you “expect” to win when he does? If the answers are no and no, there’s a ton of other guys who haven’t been given chances, or are blocked in an organization, or are coming back from injury that can produce the same answers, at less cost and more future upsidee. I just don’t see Pelfrey progressing as he becomes more and more expensive to hold onto.
No one is saying that Pelfrey is a long-term answer to the rotation.
In fact I think he would be most people’s first choice of who to replace. That said, guys who make under $8M and pitch 200 innings every year don’t grow on trees.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
If you want a guy who pitches 200 innings every year, why not sign Livan?
He’s out-pitched Pelfrey this year and would be way cheaper
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ
The 2011 Mets- Rock bottom: We haven't reached it yet
I mean, sure
if he’s cheaper than Pelf, that’s not bad since he’s been Pelfrey-esque the last two years. But he’s also not the future. What is that, other than change for the sake of change? Not to mention he’s much older than Pelf and he’s likely at risk for hitting his decline stage soon.
Pelf may not seem to have much upside, but he’s still in his 20’s and he’s got a hell of a lot more upside than probably 45 year old Livan Hernandez. If Pelfrey gets lucky or figures something out and puts up a good year next year, he’s pretty good trade bait considering his age and having a year left of arbitration.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.
by Steve Schreiber on Sep 4, 2011 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
He's been the same pitcher for the last four years
He still has no off speed pitch. He can’t strike people out. He doesn’t go deep into games. He isn’t just magically going to figure out how to become a good pitcher at the age of 27.
At this point, he’s barely above mediocre, and that’s not worth 6 or 7 million a year for a cash strapped team.
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ
The 2011 Mets- Rock bottom: We haven't reached it yet
But due to his relience on BABIP
there’s a chance he is worth 1.5 – 2.5 fWAR – something non of these other guys people have been mentioning could conceivably be.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Also, Livan's resergence is due to his new found ability to keep his HR/9 under 1.
Chances are that’s not permanent.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Well
if they can replace him with an actual upgrade, then sure. Go ahead and do it and find a taker for Pelf. I agree there.
However, if they’re just going to let go of Pelf and cross their fingers, hoping to find the next R.A. Dickey or Chris Capuano, that doesn’t sound smart. I’d just rather stick with Pelfrey at that point. Go with the devil you know, rather than pray and hold out hope that you get lucky with a wild card pitcher. The next R.A. Dickey rarely comes around. The next Chris Capuano is more likely to be the next Chris Young. If you’re going to throw away the chance of above average performance, you might as well stick with Pelf’s 200 guaranteed innings. It’s not like he’s giving up 8 runs every time he goes out to the mound and maybe there’s a positive benefit to keeping him (he puts up a year like 2008 and 2010 and you can sell high on him).
That’s just my view. Again…if they can find a legitimately better pitcher, then go right ahead and replace Pelf.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.
by Steve Schreiber on Sep 4, 2011 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, we both want the Mets to win...
and I’d love to see Pelfrey pitch well, but I just don’t see it happening. I think he’s what he’s shown. I won’t waste your time more by arguing further as I’ve expressed my view and you’re free to disagree with it, as it’s only my opinion. I do want an upgrade, and I do want upside, but I don’t think it’s near as difficult to get 200 unimpressive innings pitched as the general view seems to be. I think it can be gotten, with more upside and less cost, and I don’t have confidence in Pelfrey to kick up his game at this point. If I’m wrong, I’ll happily admit when he pitches well for the Mets or whomever next year, but I think we’ve seen what there is to see, and it’s not enough to give another 200 innings to. Have a great rest of the weekend.
Yup, I understand your point.
I’m just unsure if they can find something better. Believe me though, when I say that we’re in the same boat. I’d love to find an upgrade but I just don’t see it out there this offseason, at the moment. But maybe Sandy will surprise us this offseason and pull a rabbit out of a hat.
I’m crossing my fingers on that one! Let’s go Mets!
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.
by Steve Schreiber on Sep 4, 2011 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Name the pitchers in the lest 2 years who have pitched 200 innings and made under $6M dollars (what Pelfrey is likely to make next season, if that).
I suspect the list will be fairly short.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
You miss the point...
Pelfrey isn’t good enough that I want him to throw 200 innings for the Mets. He’s not good enough that management should allow him to. And Pelfrey is unlikely to hit 200 innings this year by the way. A pitcher who will for less money on the same staff is R.A. Dickey. And Niese is within ten innings of Pelfrey’s total for the season. Both are better pitchers than Pelfrey at lower cost and we haven’t even left the Mets’ staff.
To get a pitcher like Niese you ether have to develop them or give up a ton via the trade market.
And pitchers like Dickey are few and far between.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Staying on the same staff, yet again...
Capuano is within 10 innings of Pelfrey this year, is a better pitcher, and signed an incentive laden deal that ends up being less than Pelfrey will make for next year and he’s a better pitcher than Pelfrey as well. That’s three of the other four starters on a currently sub-.500 team. Heck, Gee would have a chance to eat up the same innings as Pelfrey if you gave him enough starts, and he’s been more effective than Pelfrey. Getting a bunch of innings pitched of unimpressive ball isn’t a pitcher’s skill, but a management decision.
Do you actually trust Capuano?
Cause I don’t.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Sep 5, 2011 12:31 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I'd rather have Capuano...
With the risk he may not pitch the full season than 200 innings of Pelfrey who also might not and is likely to pitch far less impressively for whatever innings he does throw.
There's value in those less impressive 200 IP
And, let’s not fool ourselves here- Capuano has been anything but lights out in 2011.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Sep 5, 2011 2:54 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He's striking people out, and not walking many
Still getting lit up with regularity
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Sep 6, 2011 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Counting tonight's game,
he’s had 13 starts where he’s given up 4 ER or more. Only in 6 of them has he gone at least 6 innings. From a cursory look at his game logs, home runs might be the culprit: he’s given up multiple homers in 6 games this year, including 3 twice and 4 once.
"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."
by BobbyV_Incognito on Sep 6, 2011 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions
The fac that they're both already on the staff means
they can’t be counted on to replace Pelfrey’s innings.
"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."
by BobbyV_Incognito on Sep 5, 2011 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
True, but the fact that there are pitchers on the staff...
that can do what he’s doing, on a .500 team would indicate that it’s not impossible to find such people either.
Those pitchers either cost a fair amount of money (the FA market) or players (the trade market).
They’re not freely available like you seem to think they are.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
No, it's not impossible.
But look at all the pitchers we’ve signed or drafted over the past few years, and count how many of them are capable of doing what Pelfrey’s doing for us. There really isn’t any upcoming FA who’s both durable and cheap. The only reason we could afford Capuano this year is because he was coming off an injury.
"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."
by BobbyV_Incognito on Sep 5, 2011 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions
This
and the unfortunate fact is that we got lucky with Capuano staying healthy all year (albeit it was TJ surgery so I guess there’s a better chance of recovery there than from shoulder surgery, but still…). For every Capuano who comes off an injury and pitches well and stays healthy, there’s a Chris Young, a Brandon Webb, etc. If there was somebody available on the market that was a good bet then okay, but I’m not seeing a Capuano-esque pitcher out there, assuming Adam Wainwright’s option is picked up by the Cardinals.
Now as an aside, I don’t know if he’d be willing to come here, but I’d love to bring in Hiroki Kuroda as a free agent if he’s not too expensive. He’s so underrated by most, partially because of the pedestrian WINZ/Loss record, but he’s probably around the level of Dickey on the mound (except without the deity status). He’s not an ace but this team, he’s a relatively sizable upgrade and could probably be had on a shorter term deal.
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by Steve Schreiber on Sep 5, 2011 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
This 200 innings thing is grinding my gears
200 mediocre to bad innings can easily be worse then 125 good innings and 75 replacement level ones.
Agreed, and if he pitches like he has this year...
Pelfrey shouldn’t be allowed to throw anything like that many innings, because he’s not effective enough to do. I’d love to see him suddenly “find it” and do well, but I think what’s there, we’ve seen and it just plain ain’t good enough to justify letting him getting a bunch of innings again next year at a higher cost.
In 2010 he was worth 2.9 fWAR.
Now yes, his peripheral have dropped – his HR/9 is uncharacteristically high and his GB% has dropped for the second year in a row – but his BB/9 is actually down and it’s not out of the question that his HR/9 regresses to his career average and he ends up being worth more towards 2 fWAR like he has been in the past (and be worth his contract and then some).
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Ya know, you may be right...
he “might” bounce back, and if he was gonna make the money he was in 2010 I’d say give him a chance, but he’s gonna make more money than he did in 2011 and that sours the bet entirely. And of course there’s the equally good chance that he keeps regressing. I just think we can do better than to commit to him for more money and hope he figures things out.
He may not make more money. Players do lose in arbitration on occasion.
But even if he does win, does $1M more in salary (I’d be shocked if he were awarded anything more) all of a sudden make him a horrible contract? I don’t think it does. He’s making just under $4M now. Is Pelfrey on a $5M contract horrible? I don’t think he is.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Tell me what Pelfrey we get next year...
and I could answer that. If it’s a repeat of this year, I don’t want him for that and I don’t want him holding a rotation spot. If it’s Pelfrey at his best, that’s a different story. But the Pelfrey we’re seeing this year isn’t good enough to hold a rotation spot unless we’re blowing off the season next year.
This is Pelfrey at his worst it seems
This is the definition of selling low. We almost have nothing to lose by keeping him for 2012.
Just a bunch of games and money...
if he pitches like he has been this year.
A tiny bit of money and if he shows no improvement after 5 or 6 games
that’s 5 or 6 games. And just because he has a bad outing doesn’t mean we lose all those games.
It's not even selling low.
It’s worse than that (DFA’ing).
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Prior to this year
they were 200 slightly below league average to slightly above league average innings (1.5 – 3.0 fWAR).
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
And league average would make us a .500 team...
which is about what we are now with Pelfrey being below average, so without him we’d be a hair above average.
I'm not sure what you're saying here.
Are you saying we’re not a good team because Pelfrey is on the roster? Are you theorizing a rotation full of Pelfreys?
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
What I'm saying, maybe ackwardly is...
that we’re basically at .500 with Pelfrey not having a good year, and that if he was having even an average year we’d be a bit better than .500. I realize we disagree on the merits of Mr. Pelfrey, but I think it’s without question that this has NOT been a good year for him.
It hasn't been a good year for him.
But doesn’t mean his career is over or that he is useless or to blame for the team being .500-ish.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Agreed...
The team wasn’t going to the series this year anyways. And a better performance by him would have maybe nudge the needle to a hair above .500, so I’m not “blaming” the season on him. But I do think we may be better next year, and I don’t want him in the rotation pitching like this at that point. And I’ve never said his career is over. I just don’t think it’s wise to bring him back and give him a rotation spot for $5-$6 million based on what we’ve seen for the last season and a half or so. I just think there are better alternatives out there, and of course, I may be totally wrong – it HAS happened before and it will again I’m sure.
If you want to DFA a player:
1) He’s making an exorbitant amount of money ($SM isn’t horribly expensive) or,
2) think his career is over.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
You're right, it was Graves who said "DFA".
You did however voice your opinion in general agreement with his.
Specifically:
Time to move on.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Ah, so that's where that came from...
In my case I mean time to move on in planning on him for a spot in next year’s rotation. He’s here, he’s got a few starts left, hopefully he makes some progress the rest of the season.
Pelfrey is in the bottom 10 of the league in xFIP
Would it really be THAT hard to find someone better than him? I doubt it.
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ
The 2011 Mets- Rock bottom: We haven't reached it yet
It's possible this is the new Pelfrey and his downward trending peripherals are legit.
It’s also possible this is an off year and he’ll go back to being the 1.5-3 WAR guy he’s been in the recent past. I think it’s worth the gamble that he is closer to the 2 WAR version next year. It’s not like it’s an expensive gamble.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
For the most part, those innings are relatively effective.
Who are you replacing him with? Jon Garland who’ll put up the exact same season, while costing more money? Pelf’s got two more seasons of arbitration eligibility and the Mets are most likely to go year to year with him, meaning if he’s that awful they can just dump him after next season. And on the chance that he has a fluky good season (like 2008 and 2010), the Mets would easily be able to deal him to a contender and get something good in return.
I think all the frustration with Pelf is a major overreaction, based on people’s sky high expectations that were never reached. Is he a great pitcher? No. Is he an ace? Umm…if you thought yes, no offense but you’re probably a moron. Is he serviceable? Yes. Does he provide 200 innings at a relatively cheap, cost-controlled price? Certainly does. Unless the Mets are unearthing a top of the rotation option or two to replace him, which I doubt (and by all means, if they can, do it) Pelf’s probably going to be the best option in the back of the rotation. It’s the same argument as Angel Pagan in CF. Who are you replacing these guys with that’s going to make a difference? At the moment, I don’t see anyone in the organization.
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by Steve Schreiber on Sep 4, 2011 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I'm not sure that a year of Pat Misch would be much different...
than another year like this one of Pelfrey’s. Misch is reasonably durable, has been reasonably effective as a starter for the Mets, has no star potential, is cheap and can eat innings. I just don’t see either great value or great winning capability that Pelfrey brings over many other potential pitchers. And nope, I don’t want Jon Garland either. All you’re really dealing with is a getting non-championship quality innings in a cost controlled fashion. Personally I’d rather try a younger guy with less cost and at least limited potential than Pelf, Misch or Garland. While I don’t disagree that Pelfrey isn’t the worst possible option, he’s also not a winning option, nor one that is going to be cheap either. And over the last two years the Mets have added Dickey and Gee who were both cheap and more effective than the current version of Pelfrey, so I don’t think it’s impossible to find such replacements either in the organization (Gee) or outside of it (Dickey).
This year is out of line with Pelfrey's career.
Misch has a career 0.6 WAR over 200.2 IP. He’s also never pitched 200 innings in a season. How exactly is he a reasonably effective innings eater?
Also, who’s your #6, emergency starter? The unknown Schwinden?
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
I really don't think a Misch or a Schwinden, for example,
can do what Pelfrey’s done the past few years. If you have the faith that they could do that, then fine, but at least in the case of Misch, there’s a reason why nobody’s claimed the guy on waivers every time they demote him. If he could do what Pelfrey could do, you’d have to think some other team would take a chance and give him a rotation spot, considering he’s still making the ML minimum, right? To me, he’s a guy who’s good as an emergency starter. He can start for a short period and be reasonably decent. He can throw long relief for some time. But after a while, he’ll be overexposed and his performance we’ll decline. He’s basically, in my mind, a younger Nelson Figueroa.
And wrt to Schwinden, maybe he could do it, but considering the fact that he’s got an ERA over five and a half in the second half at Buffalo, I’m not feeling great about him yet, especially considering he came out of nowhere this year.
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by Steve Schreiber on Sep 4, 2011 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not arguing that Misch is a championship quality pitcher...
but I’m not buying that the current version of Mike Pelfrey is either. Pelfrey has had his time to prove he is, or to show progress toward becoming so, and I just don’t see it. His cost will go up, eventhough he hasn’t had a good year, and I don’t see the additional cost being justified with the lack of progress and the level he’s at. He’s had his chances and it hasn’t worked. I don’t particularly dislike him, I just don’t see him building his way into anything worth keeping in the rotation for what he’ll cost. I’d rather give someone else a chance to show something, as the biggest reason I see for Pelf staying in the rotation at this point is inertia.
The ability to generate ground balls is gone
The velocity is down and he’s at 100 pitches in five innings too many times timwes this season.
by graves9 on Sep 4, 2011 5:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Pelfrey's velocity was up today
__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
When discussing velocity, the most recent is the most important
__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
Yeah, he hit 97 on the gun several times.
And the gun seemed fine with the other pitchers velocities.
Pelfs problem is a lack of out pitch, and that has nothing to do with his velocity.
by Shea Strausman on Sep 4, 2011 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Everyone knows he has no real out pitch, but
he used to generate a fair amount of ground balls with his sinker, and that’s not the case anymore.
by graves9 on Sep 4, 2011 8:02 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah, the velocity was real today.
PitchF(x) had him reaching a high of 97.2 MPH and he was averaging 94.5 with the four seamer and 95.1 with the sinker. Here’s the velocity graph:
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by Steve Schreiber on Sep 4, 2011 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions
saw that at the stadium today
And I was doing double takes all day when 97s kept getting thrown up on the scoreboard. I just assumed the National’s gun was off b/c it’s been a long time since he’s thrown that hard that consistently.
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Really good kid.A very good player.Not a superstar. #BlameWilponz. Never Forget
by ScottfromPeekskill on Sep 4, 2011 5:38 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Pitching fail.
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by Steve Schreiber on Sep 4, 2011 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we pretty much all know now
Pelf is what he is.
Parnell seems to give you one good outing, one bad, next good, next bad. It’s like a see-saw with this kid.
Duda and the suicide squeeze play is why I’m still watching until the bitter end. You just never know what you might see from one game till the next.
some of my thoughts.
just one day after saying I’d rather have Pelfrey than Gee, Pelfrey gives me all the reasons in the world to change my mind. still stand by it, though. 200 innings, even of the mediocre quality that Pelfrey gives, is no small feat. He has no place on a playoff caliber rotation, though, so here’s hoping Wheeler and Harvey succeed for 2013 and the future.
Duda continues to impress at the plate. that home run was a BOMB and the SNY camera failed to show you how deep that ball really went (I thought Werth had a shot at it until Gary said it was in the second deck…then I got confused). Defense is a work in progress, though…one can only hope he’ll get better, cause he’s pretty brutal out there now. still, hit like this and I would be happy to have him manning RF all day, every day. the glove may fail us more times than we’d like but the bat will make up for all of that and more.
Terry PH Harris makes me think Harris must have embarrassing photos of him or something. I can’t understand his fascination with Willie Harris. really, I can’t. oh well, it worked out and things could be worse — see Jeff Mathis and Mike Soscia in LA.
Igarashi should never have been called into that bases loaded spot. Acosta or (dare I say it) Beato, please.
Well Acosta did throw thirty-one pitches yeterday,
so he wasn’t available today. That said, I do agree that anyone would be a better option than Iggy. Agree on Duda, he has massive pop. I do worry about his defense as he’s not exactly mobile, but his bat plays very well in the every day line up. I would prefer to see him start in LF rather than RF. If you’re forced to play Bay every day might as well shift him to RF to help Duda out a bit.
Regarding Duda:
I’m hoping he learns positioning, better reads on the ball off the bat and when to stay in front/when to dive for a falling ball – as he hopefully goes into his first full season playing RF. If he can improve on these defensive skills, then his lack of ‘fleet of foot’ out there should then result in cutting down on a liability out there.
If that power and bat are for real I’d really like to see him as a staple in the lineup going forward.
by MetsFan4Decades on Sep 4, 2011 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't even think about moving him to LF
that would be a great (and easily doable) idea. if Bay is amenable to playing center, surely he would play right. he’s a mediocre at best OF but he would certainly be better than Duda there.
Bay is an above average LF.Why would you weaken LF by putting Duda there when his arm is better suited for RF.
Bay has never played RF so you would be weakening 2 positions instead of just one.Mets have constantly done crap like this by asking players to do things they are not suited to do.Hopefully the Three Wise Men in the FO will not allow it to continue as they further develop talent.
by Putnan Prince on Sep 4, 2011 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions
LF is typically easier to play than RF
Bay is a (much) better OF than Duda. ergo, the better OF should play the more difficult position. this isn’t like shifting from 1B to SS or something; it’s easier for OFs to change position out there. this move makes the OF defense, as a whole unit, better.
True.
But quirks can be learned whereas speed and range cannot.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
it's easier to teach someone who's more familiar with OF play, no?
learning in LF would be more about learning how to read balls off the bat. Duda will never have speed out there.
LF and RF are typically the same
hence the equal positional adjustment. However, LFers would probably tend to have more range, while RFers tend to have better arms.
Duda has a good arm
and isn’t there more room in LF than RF?
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Duda has an excellent arm
__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
I was under the impression LF is easier to play than RF
given that the most defensively deficient OFs are usually placed in left (Ryan Braun, Manny Ramirez, Mike Morse, etc). Dunn did play RF, so I could be wrong…
I think the defencent guys are in LF because they often also have crappy arms.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Probably not the best idea to rely solely on luck.
Just because it worked today doesn’t mean it’ll work tomorrow. Or ever again.
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by Steve Schreiber on Sep 4, 2011 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions
i never said it will always worked
Terry seems to know what he is doing
for today atleast
Nets Mets Giants ALL DAY
Is this an factitious repeating of last game's recap comments?
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Good times
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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Sep 4, 2011 8:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Why are they not letting Satin play some 2b?
that’s where his bat would play best, and Turner’s just been sort of scuffling along. Nothing to lose by letting Satin play a couple of games at 2b in the last couple weeks. They should find out if he can be a bench piece or not next year.
Just what the Mets need.Another 2nd baseman who has no skills to play there.Going by some of the posts on this sight,
Bay will be in center,Duda will be in left or right,Murph should try the outfield again and if Reyes isn’t signed,Tejada will be at short.Certainly tejada is a downgrade from Jose’.If these moves are made along with Wright being just average at third and Thole still learning behind the plate,This would be without a doubt,the worst defensive team I’ve seen in my 45 years watching baseball.
by Putnan Prince on Sep 4, 2011 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I am guessing you didn't watch the Marlins series?
That said, Bay’s not gonna be in CF. He’s gonna be in LF where he belongs. Murphy’s not gonna be in the OF. He’s gonna be at 2B where he belongs. In the sad event that we don’t re-sign Jose, Tejada is likely the new SS, but he’s really not that bad.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Sep 4, 2011 8:59 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
No regular on this site wants Bay in center
And Murphy at second isn’t as big a downgrade from Turner as you think. Justin Turner is a really bad second baseman, Murphy and Satin aren’t much worse, and the slight downgrade is offset by the far superior offense.
Are we even sure Murphy is worse than Turner at second?
This is an honest question, I don’t actually get to see games…ever, really, I listen to them on Gameday. And UZR isn’t really useful here.
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by Thomas Wachtel on Sep 5, 2011 3:17 AM EDT up reply actions
He didn't always look pretty but he got the job done.
I think they are pretty comparable – and with more time, Murphy would probably get better.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
I agree with that assessment.
Certainly wasn’t pretty (Murphy isn’t known for the grace and style that made someone like Carlos Beltran, for instance, such a joy to watch) but he made the plays and he’s got surprisingly solid range. Unfortunately, everybody’s second-guessing is coming from the injury and while he wasn’t in the right position at the bag on the slide, the guy hadn’t played second base in months and has about 20 appearances there in the majors. I think it’s a major overreaction to something that could be solved quite simply with more reps…reps that he didn’t get because TC would rather have Justin Turner and Willie Harris (Why?!?!) play second base all the time.
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by Steve Schreiber on Sep 5, 2011 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Not a lot of Mets games on in Indianapolis.
I always get the Cubs/White Sox/Reds option, because MLB is a rat bastard
In a past life, I was called fightoffyourdemons.
I write a bit for The Short Fuse.
by Thomas Wachtel on Sep 5, 2011 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
I missed Josh Satin's debut...doh
and Jerry Collins was lucky Willie Harris came through.
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