Getting a Grip on David Wright's Immediate Future

by Matthew Artus on Jan 19, 2012 2:00 PM EST

All the New York Mets know about David Wright is that he should be their starting third baseman for Opening Day in 2012.

After that, who knows?

In case you missed it, ESPN's Buster Olney recently mulled over the future prospects of our star third baseman (subscription required) for this season and beyond. He lays out three paths for Wright -- a longterm extension that buys out his 2013 option, the wait-and-see-until-after-2013 approach that recently worked oh-so-well with Jose Reyes, or a trade either at the July deadline or after Wright's 2013 option is picked up -- after advocating the third way himself. It's not exactly groundbreaking stuff; Olney briefly assesses Wright's current status with the Mets in a fair manner that's unbecoming of a certain lazy national baseball writer at Yahoo Sports.

Olney then offers three assessments from various talent evaluators on Wright's standing these days, and it's the appraisal of the AL scout that caught my eye.

The first two talent evaluators from Olney's post project Wright as a very-good-but-inconsistent player and a potentially poorer investment than the sometimes fragile Aramis Ramirez. (Fragile enough to make my fantasy baseball roster suffer, anyway.) Their straightforward reviews are sound enough for folks outside the Metsopotamia fishbowl, if only because we've heard them a hundred times before.

Then Olney cites a scout calling for a jolt of optimism. Read for yourself:

From an AL scout: "David Wright is a potential coup. He's eerily similar in value to the Seattle version of Adrian Beltre, although he (and everyone else in baseball) is not the defender that Beltre is. He and Beltre both were suffocated by their home parks, Citi Field and Safeco Field, respectively. Teams should have pounced and offered Beltre a premium multi-year deal when he left Seattle originally. If available, I'd trade and sign Wright now. Another caveat with Wright is that he's performed and handled himself admirably in New York, which bodes well for any type of market going forward."

It's an interesting comparison, if imperfect. Wright's flashed a little more power and walks almost twice as much as the more free-swinging Beltre, but his strikeout rate since moving to Citi Field in 2009 is at 22.9% (which is basically dangerous territory for anyone aspiring to be an MLB superstar). By comparison, Beltre's never posted a seasonal strikeout percentage higher than 17.3% in his career. And let's go ahead and dismiss any notion that Wright might follow Beltre's lead with a contract year bump in his performance, since we all should know better.

While the two right-handed hitters might not match talents to perfection, there is a disparity in their defensive abilities as the AL scout suggests. Allowing for Wright's busier workload with more plays at the hot corner in fewer seasons (which may be due in part to an abundance of southpaws on the Mets over the past few seasons), Beltre's defense still saves runs while Wright's tactics concede them. Giving you the numbers to compare is cruel, so instead I wanted to show an interesting note from Wright's UZR numbers:

Year	Inn	DPR	RngR	ErrR	UZR	UZR/150
2004	603.2	-1.2	6.6	-2.3	3.2	6.6
2005	1404.1	-0.8	-2.9	-1.7	-5.4	-4.9
2006	1365.1	-0.2	-6.3	0.4	-6.2	-6.3
2007	1418.1	-0.3	7.1	-0.5	6.3	6.3
2008	1433.1	-0.7	5.1	0.7	5.1	5.2
2009	1232	-1.1	-7.9	-1.1	-10	-12.2
2010	1373	-0.7	-10.8	0.9	-10.6	-9.5
2011	893.2	-0.7	-4.8	-5	-10.5	-16.4
Total	9723.2	-5.6	-13.9	-8.5	-28.1	-4

UZR/150 needs a big, fat sample size to be worthwhile. One season of UZR is barely a minimum; three seasons or more is better. And eras like, say, the years coinciding with a change in your home ballpark...

Home	Inn	DPR	RngR	ErrR	UZR	UZR/150
Shea Stadium	6223.6	-3.2	9.6	-3.4	3	6.9
Citi Field	3498.2	-2.5	-23.5	-5.2	-31.1	-38.1

...might leave you wondering: What the hell is in the water supply at Citi Field? Did they forget to calibrate their machines from the deeply-negative factory default settings? Is the locker room air damaging his glove and cleats?

Wright's spike in strikeouts has hurt him at the plate, but his complete loss of any defensive ability at third base has rendered him an average Major League Baseball player at best these days. It's doubly frustrating as he's still at an age where he can right the ship, presuming the ship's path should echo his formative years at Shea Stadium rather than his troublesome ones at Citi Field -- and that Wright's performance on the road matches that which occurs at home.

UZR's a tricky beast, because its reliability varies from season to season and it likely overestimates the player's true ability through faulty calculations under the stat's hood. But it is telling us something about David Wright, and that something is leaving me more in doubt about the future of the latest-and-greatest longest tenure Met. Not because I'm giving up on him, but because I legitimately have zero clue about what expectations to ask of him going forward.

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Comments

I think this guy

just peaked and declined early, unfortunately… gave us a few great years, but the guy is very far from a star now…

by aronofsky40 on Jan 19, 2012 3:17 PM EST reply actions

They have to hope he has one more great year in him.

That way, they can pick up his option and trade him for a package of prospects. And he will demand a package. The market for third baseman is horrendous next offseason. 38 yo Scott Rolen might be the best one available.

Frankly, I don’t think the next team that signs Wright is going to get much return on their investment. Thankfully, the Mets are broke (positive!), so that’s not something I have to worry about.

Oh pissing blimey there's jam coming out of the walls!

by TWilliAM on Jan 19, 2012 3:35 PM EST reply actions 3 recs

I hate to agree with this, but I really do

Wright will have some real value with a good season this year, so hopefully moving in the fences will do some good in that regard. I hate the idea of the Mets without either Reyes or Wright but I just can’t picture David not being well into his decline by the time the Mets have the Wilpon issue sorted out and have got a few more pre-arbitration stars producing big numbers.

by Stephen Schmidt on Jan 19, 2012 4:28 PM EST up reply actions

This

I love David, but its best for the Mets that they cash in what ever value he gives them in the form of prospects.

Ryan Miller was the true MVP. See my profile for rant.

by Jsz on Jan 19, 2012 7:35 PM EST up reply actions

Hope (gulp) the Phillies bite

One day, this team is going to kill me.

by fxcarden on Jan 19, 2012 8:48 PM EST up reply actions

Never.

I don’t care if they trade us the next Ted Williams and Bob Feller; if Wright can’t be a Met for life, he shouldn’t be a Phillie. That’s a double-whammy I can’t take.

"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."

by BobbyV_Incognito on Jan 19, 2012 8:50 PM EST up reply actions

He'd hit in Wrigley and Fenway.The Cubs will be very interested.

by Putnan Prince on Jan 19, 2012 9:05 PM EST up reply actions

I've drawn a line

if Dubs goes, I’m gonna be mighty hard pressed to not put into practice an abstinence of anything relevant to Met land and all its spoils.

"Intelligence is not a genetic predisposition. Think stupid!!"

by Wright of passage on Jan 19, 2012 10:46 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, that'd be a dark day for the franchise.

Going to be a lot of fans giving up the faith. I can’t promise I won’t be one of them.

"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."

by BobbyV_Incognito on Jan 20, 2012 12:03 AM EST up reply actions

Yup.

I don’t think I can take that. I have a hard enough time even imagining DW in anything but a Mets uni, but a Phillie? Ugh. That would kill my inner fan.

by SoCal Metfan on Jan 20, 2012 12:24 PM EST up reply actions

but what about if Amaro gave him a really expensive contract

and Wright kept on striking out, and making throwing errors ?.

I could see some enjoyment from that on a rivalry level. I’d feel bad for David, but I’d be chuckling about the PhiLOLlies

One day, this team is going to kill me.

by fxcarden on Jan 20, 2012 12:45 PM EST up reply actions

I like David too much to see him suffer like that.

"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."

by BobbyV_Incognito on Jan 20, 2012 7:14 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah same, I can't wish ill on DW

and the Phils would probably still finish 20+ games in front of the Mets anyway.

by LGNYM on Jan 21, 2012 12:55 AM EST up reply actions

I wish we had a real answer

I can’t buy into the “just peaked early” idea.

I think the stadium explains some of the offense, but that doesn’t explain the big defensive drop

by LGNYM on Jan 19, 2012 3:56 PM EST reply actions

This season is important for him to turn that trend around

It could just be an interesting study in sports psychology where his glove bounces back as his bat does.

Either way, I’m not going to make any forgone conclusions that he will be traded. It’s not something I want to think about.

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by piazza62 on Jan 19, 2012 4:08 PM EST up reply actions

stadium explains some

the homers I guess… although I don’t know if that’s ALL the stadium either…

but not so much the decline in walks and increase in strikeouts…

by aronofsky40 on Jan 19, 2012 6:26 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah I think there is probably more

than strictly the stadium on the offensive side too.

But I think the stadium can have an effect on the strikeouts. It was said many times that he started tinkering with and adjusting his swing b/c of the park, and I think a screwed up swing can lead to an increase in Ks.

But I don’t know if its all the stadium…and even if it was, I don’t know if fixing the stadium necessarily results in him finding his old swing.

by LGNYM on Jan 19, 2012 7:02 PM EST up reply actions

It makes me wonder if the back injury has existed since 09

and it was just exacerbated last season to the point of being diagnosable.

by SoCal Metfan on Jan 20, 2012 12:25 PM EST up reply actions

Highly doubt it

Dubs knew something was wrong because the pain he was dealing with was something that wasn’t going away. He said he was only dealing with it for a week prior to his DL stint IIRC to begin with. You don’t just walk around with fractured vertebrae and not notice it for 2 years.

"Intelligence is not a genetic predisposition. Think stupid!!"

by Wright of passage on Jan 20, 2012 2:45 PM EST up reply actions

I don't know...its possible

Stress fractures are generally caused by “repeated stress” and have more of a gradual onset…..a specific event may exacerbate the problem, but generally don’t completely cause it ….and when the injury came out there were several docs quoted in the papers who questioned the premise about it happening on one play. If IIRC he did miss a couple games in prior yrs with back spasms, so maybe they was some kind of pre-existing problem that got worse with time? I suppose there is a chance that is the case,

He did play with this injury for a month and it was several weeks into it before we even heard anything about i it publicly, so maybe a less severe injury they’d be even more apt to be quiet. But still, you would think (despite all the jokes about the medical staff) that if he had some kind of injury that was having a drastic effect on his performance that we would have heard something about it at some point over the past couple yrs and that he probably wouldn’t be playing virtually every singe game.

by LGNYM on Jan 20, 2012 6:11 PM EST up reply actions

Speaking from experience,

it is possible to have a back injury like that for a long time, but it gets so painful that I can’t believe Wright would not either see a doctor about it, or at least tell the training staff. I suffered a stress fracture of my L5 in high school, but it couldn’t have been very long before I had it diagnosed. Like I said, it’s extremely painful, especially for a 3B.

"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."

by BobbyV_Incognito on Jan 20, 2012 7:24 PM EST up reply actions

That stinks for you man

But yeah I agree. It seems hard to believe that something like that would go undetected for so long, especially in a professional athlete with access to some of the best doctors

by LGNYM on Jan 21, 2012 12:36 AM EST up reply actions

I can't wrap my head around the fact that the Mets would trade Wright

And I hate realizing he’s not a kid anymore with unlimited potential, but that we might have already seen his best. As hard as it was to let go of Reyes, it was understandable due to his injuries and the contract he’d deserve. I’d like to think Wright is in a class of his own when it comes to “face of the franchise”, but we might have to accept this front office doesn’t really owe right any loyalty, and might pounce at the opportunity to trade him once he gets his value up. Hope for the best, expect the worst I suppose.

"I only wanted a few things out of life -- a wife, children, to play baseball and to hunt deer." - Turk Wendell

by Rey-O on Jan 19, 2012 4:14 PM EST reply actions 2 recs

Mets would have to be complete idiots to re-sign Wright to. a long term deal after his last few seasons with

his performance at the plate and in the field.

by Putnan Prince on Jan 22, 2012 10:17 AM EST up reply actions

It depends

2011 was the only year that was really rough. He was still good in 2009 and 2010, if they are confident he can bounce back it could make sense to take advantage of the down year and to try to sign him at a discounted rate .

But of course if they aren’t so confident and are still worried about the injury then it wouldnt be worth taking that risk

by LGNYM on Jan 22, 2012 12:32 PM EST up reply actions

Do you have amnesia about David's play in 09 and 10?

by Putnan Prince on Jan 23, 2012 6:17 PM EST up reply actions

No

Those years were still good. 124 OPS+ in 2009, 131 in 2010 they just weren’t as good compared to his prior elite seasons.

by LGNYM on Jan 24, 2012 7:23 PM EST up reply actions

Just as with hitting

there are psychological aspects to fielding, too. My prediction is that his fielding (really throwing) improves if his hitting improves with the walls moved in The House that Wright Renovated.

by tmu on Jan 19, 2012 4:21 PM EST reply actions

Yeah there might be a link there

I can see if a player is overanxious or losing confidence in one aspect it might carry over to the other…and I could see that leading to more errors.

But the weird thing is that its his range (not really the throwing) that has really fallen off the map the past couple yrs.

I’m not sure how to rationalize that one other than if he was hurt, or if its just an unrelated decline. Unless if its the “he bulked up an lost flexibility” theory…but his D started slipping in 2009 which was before he seemingly bulked up to hit more HRs.

I suppose it could be one thing one year and another thing another year

by LGNYM on Jan 19, 2012 5:56 PM EST up reply actions

That is a little odd

Although for a 3B, much of “range” is reaction time, anyway. (Probably true all over the field, but humor me.)

by tmu on Jan 19, 2012 6:59 PM EST up reply actions

I have no idea if we'll see the David Wright of old

but whether they’re going to trade him or not, it would be great if we do see the vintage Wright.

by MetsFan4Decades on Jan 19, 2012 4:40 PM EST reply actions

Probably the same chance as seeing vintage Bay.

by Putnan Prince on Jan 19, 2012 9:08 PM EST up reply actions

I think there's a much better chance of Wright rebounding than Bay does

Wright did have a 29 homer season just two years ago. I think at the very least he’ll regain his power with the changes to Citi.

by graves9 on Jan 20, 2012 12:25 PM EST up reply actions

Hope so.David has had problems when there was no protection around him.

by Putnan Prince on Jan 20, 2012 11:00 PM EST up reply actions

Wilpon frugality

Let’s hope there is a market for Bay and Santana

by bob c on Jan 19, 2012 4:54 PM EST reply actions

market for bay

loooooooooooooooooool

by aronofsky40 on Jan 19, 2012 6:28 PM EST up reply actions

If he is traded, i wonder what kind of haul one more season of 2005-2008 Dubs would get us

by Steven Festa on Jan 19, 2012 5:48 PM EST reply actions

The problem with this is

prospects just seem so unappealing weighed against a Wright season like that…especially considering how many team offensive records he would break after another year like that. It would be tough to swallow, especially if the prospects are busts.

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by piazza62 on Jan 19, 2012 8:10 PM EST up reply actions

It would sorta be karma

After all we did land him for Hampton compensation. Just the ass end of the full circle.

"Intelligence is not a genetic predisposition. Think stupid!!"

by Wright of passage on Jan 19, 2012 10:49 PM EST up reply actions

Remember the Sequence

The Mets adjusted their hitting style for Citifield.

In the first half of 2009, before the injury wave got nuts and the whole team went in the tank, Wright (and Beltran) were hitting less for power but their batting average was high. At the end of June Wright had just one HR, but his OPS was sky high.

Then Wright was left unprotected in the lineup by losses elsewhere in the team, and then he was beaned. He hasn’t been the same since the beaning. That’s three things.

Then he was injured again in early 2011.

So there have been a series of negatives in Wright’s baseball life that might have curtailed his performance.

That’s three things that happened.

by WT Economist on Jan 19, 2012 6:45 PM EST reply actions

FIve Home Runs By the End of June

by WT Economist on Jan 19, 2012 6:46 PM EST up reply actions

I really don't think the beaning has anything to do with his struggles.

He was already hitting for very little power and striking out a lot more well before he got hit in the head in August 09. I’d guess he changed his swing to “adjust” to Citi Field and that’s what’s pushed the strikeouts up and caused most of his problems. Remember, that was the offseason of the famed Jerry Manuel opposite field curveball drill.

Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.

by Steve Schreiber on Jan 19, 2012 7:06 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah but the Ks were inflated even then

He was hitting, but something was still off…maybe that was from the swing tinkering, I don’t know. And there was some talk later on that he played hurt for awhile in 2009, so maybe that had an effect too.

The beaning probably did have some effect. He was awful in Sept 2009 after coming back. I think he dropped his overall OPS by about 50 pts in Sept…which is hard to do at that stage of the year. And it did seem like there were times in 2010 where he was standing way off the plate and/or bailing from pitches. However, in 2010 he had a very good first half (.924 OPS; though there was some up and downs there too) and then a lousy second half (.770 OPS). Maybe I am wrong, but I would think the beaning would have a larger effect in the time more recent to the event…so I don’t know what explains what went on in 2010.

DW’s decline is like my DaVinci Code…I can’t stop trying to solve the mystery lol

by LGNYM on Jan 19, 2012 7:14 PM EST up reply actions

Wasn't Just The Beaning

He’s had one thing after another throwing him off. Hopefully he’ll be healthy and have some protection in the line-up this year.

One think has certainly changed — he went from great two-strike hitter to bad two-strike hitter. Maybe he as to adjust and get more aggressive early in the count in if the pitcher isn’t wild.

by WT Economist on Jan 19, 2012 7:37 PM EST up reply actions

It'd also be nice if Wright didn't start off every count in an 0-2 hole

"I only wanted a few things out of life -- a wife, children, to play baseball and to hunt deer." - Turk Wendell

by Rey-O on Jan 19, 2012 9:09 PM EST up reply actions

First pitch taken for strike one.Second pitch fouled off to the right side on a late swing.0-2 count.

by Putnan Prince on Jan 23, 2012 6:22 PM EST up reply actions

I was under the impression that 'protection in the lineup' had been studied and found to have no measurable effect.

On the other hand, I absolutely believe that David has looked at the lineup (particularly in 2009/10), found it wanting and pushed himself into doing stupid things with the bat because he felt that if he didn’t do ‘it’ nobody else would be able to.

Which may have been exactly what you meant.

by Curtis3331 on Jan 20, 2012 8:34 PM EST up reply actions

There seems to be a lot of excuses for David's play.How about this one.

Increased Steroid testing for all MLB players.Nothing would surprise me anymore.

by Putnan Prince on Jan 19, 2012 9:14 PM EST reply actions

The big increase in testing was made before Wright made his MLB debut

and they had even more hardcore testing in the minors back when he was a minor leaguer.

I suppose anything is possible…but him doing roids for years and then suddenly stopping in 2009 seems a bit far fetched

by LGNYM on Jan 19, 2012 9:53 PM EST up reply actions

No.

Astro Traveler

by BlackOps on Jan 19, 2012 10:14 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs

Wright and Steroids

Perhaps Wright’s struggles as he gets older is what normally happens if you DON"T take steroids.

And we just forgot.

My thought was that if Wright were a different kind of buy, and it were 1996, the response to those kind of struggles probably would have been to take PEDs. But Wright isn’t that kind of guy,and it isn’t 1996 and hasn’t been for several years.

by WT Economist on Jan 20, 2012 7:32 AM EST up reply actions

Steroid withdrawal wouldn't account for the K's and throwing errors.

Power, yes.

One day, this team is going to kill me.

by fxcarden on Jan 20, 2012 12:46 PM EST up reply actions

Lack of confidence tends to spread its ugly vibe.Unfortunately nothing would shock me any more with Roids

and especially HGH which is still probably used frequently.

by Putnan Prince on Jan 20, 2012 10:52 PM EST up reply actions

It's not roids.

Would it kill you to not be like this, just once?

"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."

by BobbyV_Incognito on Jan 21, 2012 12:23 AM EST up reply actions

2012 Breath of fresh air?

Madoff, Citifiled dimensions debacle, injury plague, Omar, Manuel, Reyes/ Beltran/ KRod death watches etc.etc.

I for one will be glad to watch baseball for a least acouple of months without all the drama.
No it is not all gone and certainly it will rear its head with a keep/trade Wright debate as June/July approaches.
But a mature GM and field manager, a somewhat settled – if unspectacular team – and the reduced glare of low expectations will be a breath of fresh air.

Can’t wait to sit at the park on a sunny day.

by john738330 on Jan 19, 2012 10:23 PM EST reply actions 3 recs

2014 Breath of Fresh Air

We won’t hit bottom until the big contracts are off the books and the Wilpon’s have either sold or righted the ship financially after getting beyond Madoff.

by WT Economist on Jan 20, 2012 7:34 AM EST up reply actions

2012

Won’t be devoid of any distractions either. The “death watch” still goes on for David Wright. Which will be fairly annoying. No matter how we know the situation to be the MSM will still beat that dead horse as long as they can.

You always root for laundry. Of course, you'd like to have good players in that laundry as well.

by MetsCity on Jan 20, 2012 9:05 AM EST via Android app up reply actions

You have put up the white flag and surrendered,Sir.Enjoy the Park.They'll be plenty of room for

you to spread out.

by Putnan Prince on Jan 20, 2012 10:55 PM EST up reply actions

I can't be the only one who has no clue what 90 percent of your comments mean

37 - 14 - 41 - 31 - 17 - 42 - SHEA

by piazza62 on Jan 21, 2012 12:02 AM EST up reply actions

It's all just bitching and whining.

"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."

by BobbyV_Incognito on Jan 21, 2012 12:24 AM EST up reply actions

I had a feeling...

I was at the Knicks game tonight and even the crowd there was more pleasant than this dude.

37 - 14 - 41 - 31 - 17 - 42 - SHEA

by piazza62 on Jan 21, 2012 12:51 AM EST up reply actions

If you see the first post you may get a clue.Maybe.

by Putnan Prince on Jan 21, 2012 11:20 AM EST up reply actions

I read the comment and then I read yours

No correlation, really. I don’t know what white flag you refer to, but most of your comments are non-sequiturs to the issue at hand.

37 - 14 - 41 - 31 - 17 - 42 - SHEA

by piazza62 on Jan 21, 2012 4:06 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs

On the mechanical side, it is not so much the swing. Yes he has altered it over the years, but he tried to get back to the old one last year. What he did not do, was return to the old mindset. David had become an exxtremely anxious hitter, prone to chasing sliders in the dirt, and high fastballs. You will see very little of that his first few years. He was extremely patient and disciplined. And because of it, he developed the kind of rep that gets calls from the ump. For the past three years, he can not lay off a pitch that he once disdained. That kind of problem resides in the mind. David does not have a particularly fast bat. Teams can beat him inside. He compensated for this by not swinging at balls. He has lost that. That is what really put him over the top offensively. His defensive woes also seem to be borne of uncertainty, lack of onfidence. Yes he has a rag arm, but he always has had one. When he has time to think about a throw he puts it in the dirt. It is very hard to restore self image. But I think that is where his real problems lie.

by jdon on Jan 20, 2012 6:34 AM EST reply actions 1 recs