Mike Pelfrey's Pitching Woes are in The Best Shape of Their Life
Stop me if you've heard this before: Mike Pelfrey needs to keep his sinker down.
In case you missed it, the Mets avoided arbitration with Pelfrey earlier this week by coming to an agreement on a one-year. $5.675 million contract for the team's homegrown starter. And in case you've been living under a rock, Pelfrey's return on the Mets' investment has diminished enough in recent seasons to leave fans wondering if it's worth putting up with a seventh consecutive season of his growing pains at the Major League level.
That reality came to mind as I listened to Pelfrey's appearance on SNY's Mets Hot Stove on Thursday. In it, Captain Obvious concedes that he surrendered "way too many homers" in 2011 before admitting that he needs to reestablish his ability to remove the first "T" in his stinking fastball.
"I can't throw the ball waist high and expect the guy to hit the ball in the grass," said Pelfrey. "It doesn't work like that. I need to put the ball back down."
I realize the Hot Stove rhetoric helps beat writers file on a slow news day, but the chatter about his pitching repetoire can often feel like the Mets-centric version of the "The Best Shape of My Life" stories that signal the start of Spring Training. We get it. He lacks a second pitch. He needs to make his fastball sink. He needs to be better.
But why can't he just do it already? And why do the Mets still put up with it?
In my formative years playing sandlot baseball at the Dustbowl in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn, my friends and I pretty much let anyone with a pulse join us if it meant we had enough for a game. One such pulse-bearer was a kid named Jim, who was as awkward a teenager as you'll ever meet and dabbled with drugs to add to the awkwardness but, at his heart, was an awkward guy like us who just wanted to play a little baseball.
And Jim wanted to pitch. We only had one regular pitcher in my friend Victor, who was our de facto Benny "The Jet" Rodriguez as he would later go on to play college ball as a pitcher and shortstop. Victor couldn't pitch every day as he played in multiple leagues in addition to our sandlot ball, so we let Jim toe the rubber from time to time as needed.
Finding a catcher for Jim was another matter. Jim's version of his own scouting report included an unstoppable arsenal of nine different pitches that he could throw endlessly and with impunity. Our version consisted of Jim chucking the same slow, flat offspeed pitch from nine different awkward grips. The catcher du jour had his work cut out for him in blocking balls in the dirt, but he could throw up any combination of hand signals to appease Jim into thinking his catcher was attempting to focus the pure talent of the next great phenom hurling fastballs, screwballs, and sliders with ease.
I thought of Jim as I stared at Mike Pelfrey's FanGraphs page following his new one-year deal being announced. It's maddening. If he could just collect one more strikeout per nine innings or walk one less batter per nine... If he could just concede a few less fly balls and coerce a few more grounders... If he could just find the strike zone a bit more, or get opposing batters to chase a few balls out of it...
If he could just normalize his pitch selection...
| Season | FB% | SL% | CT% | CB% | CH% | SF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 76.7% (94.0) | 10.8% (80.4) | 0.8% (90.3) | 3.4% (77.8) | 8.2% (85.1) | |
| 2007 | 72.8% (92.4) | 13.5% (83.0) | 13.7% (83.6) | |||
| 2008 | 81.2% (92.7) | 12.8% (84.3) | 0.8% (73.9) | 5.1% (83.2) | ||
| 2009 | 78.3% (92.6) | 13.6% (84.8) | 3.9% (76.1) | 4.2% (83.4) | ||
| 2010 | 68.9% (92.0) | 9.2% (83.8) | 5.5% (75.5) | 16.3% (84.5) | ||
| 2011 | 64.4% (92.2) | 14.1% (84.3) | 3.1% (87.9) | 5.6% (75.7) | 12.8% (84.5) | |
| Total | 73.2% (92.4) | 12.5% (84.2) | 0.7% (87.9) | 3.6% (75.7) | 3.5% (83.5) | 6.6% (84.5) |
It always interested me that Pelfrey officially added his splitter in 2010 to basically counteract his inability to miss bats with his fastball in 2009. It even worked for a bit; Pelfrey pitched a bit better than average that year, only to once again plummet back to Earth in 2011. But what do you do? Add another pitch? Throw the pitch with the most sink more often? Every time there's a clue, it creates a false lead.
Despite all that frustration, I still want to root for Mike Pelfrey. His homegrown status isn't lost on me, nor is his work ethic and his stand-up attitude for the troubles he creates. Pelfrey's like the anti-Oliver Perez in that way; he's working hard to contribute, but hates his troubles coming at the club's expense. If his pitching capability matched his character, we'd be golden at the top of the starting rotation.
Unlike the mystery surrounding the inconsistent performance of David Wright, our long relationship with our 6-foot-7 righty has left little doubt in what he has to offer going forward (presuming that Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen can't summon the spirit of former Angels pitching coach Tom Morgan and turn Pelfrey into Nolan Ryan's heir apparent by teaching him a proper offspeed pitch) . If he can get the ball down, we'll have a meaningful starter. If he can't, we hope he lasts long enough on the mound to give the bullpen a break.
And like Jim, we just need to find a catcher in addition to Josh Thole that's willing to keep those balls out of the dirt while Pelfrey keeps chasing greatness.
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I was hoping for
Mets avoided arbitration with Pelfrey earlier this week by coming to an agreement their senses
One day, this team is going to kill me.
As expected, he pitches worse against lefties (FIP 1 run higher and GB 10% lower)
If he chooses the path to develop another pitch, a decent change up would make a difference.
Also, Fangraphs shows 2 slightly different pitch type classification, the other one is under the Pitch F/X tab.
In lobby for: Jaime Cevallos, Zack Lutz, orange unis and Rickroll as the 7th inning song.
The Unwritten Rules of AA
I just hope he has a nice little 14-15 game tear to start the season
His salary isn’t really prohibitive enough to hurt his value, so if he actually has a nice little BABIP assisted run to start the season we could get a nice little return for him at the deadline.
by Stephen Schmidt on Jan 20, 2012 1:25 PM EST reply actions
But why can't he do it already? Why do the Mets put up with it?
because Dan Warthen is a GENIUS pitching coach! plus this it the Mets, Wilpons love to be also-rans instead of winnerz…
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
I still want to root for Mike Pelfrey.
Good person? Sure. Good pitcher? Not even close.
Want proof? Pelfrey had the third lowest SwStr% in the majors last year. Only Bartolo Colon and Brad Penny missed fewer bats and they both pitched in the AL.
Oh pissing blimey there's jam coming out of the walls!
I think all 3 throw nothing but fastballs.
Even relievers have two pitches normally.
Hey, I just want a decent first half, and I'm good with Pelfrey
I say, this season, he scraps the cutter and the curve for a screwball.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
Ryder or Riot #WWWYKI
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 20, 2012 4:24 PM EST reply actions
Mo Vaugn made it a career
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
Ryder or Riot #WWWYKI
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest | 1st place- 2012 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 20, 2012 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
He sure did...

Oh pissing blimey there's jam coming out of the walls!
by TWilliAM on Jan 20, 2012 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I rec this picture every time I see it
What Would Matt Szczur Do?
Fact on Villanova Sports
by Hoyadestroya85 on Jan 20, 2012 10:37 PM EST up reply actions
I'm sure Mo rec'd that sandwich
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
Ryder or Riot #WWWYKI
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest | 1st place- 2012 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 21, 2012 12:20 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
That's not creative enough
He should add a screwball, a gyroball, a palmball, circle change, square change, something called a “shuuto”, spitball, vaseline, scuffing, and switch pitching like Pat Venditte.
37 - 14 - 41 - 31 - 17 - 42 - SHEA
Why not add an eephus, too?
And a knuckler? It worked wonders for Dickey.
"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."
by BobbyV_Incognito on Jan 21, 2012 12:25 AM EST up reply actions
Lol at square change
A shuuto is a two-seam fastball with excessive returning movement, a reverse slider at fastball speed if you will.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
Ryder or Riot #WWWYKI
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest | 1st place- 2012 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 21, 2012 12:22 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Pelfrey
maybe he’ll have an awesome first half and Sandy can trick some doof into giving up a halfway decent prospect for him.
I see that during his three good seasons he threw the slider less than he did during his three bad seasons.
The key would seem to be convincing him that he has to limit his slider selection to less than 11%. How do we go about doing that?
Traid Wright to the Mariners and bring back Ollie
so he can tutor Pelfrey
One day, this team is going to kill me.
Simple attitude to take with Mike Pelfrey.
Don’t expect much and you won’t be disappointed.
Enjoyed the bit about your sandlot.
Brings back lots of memories. Great stuff.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 21, 2012 12:26 AM EST reply actions
Not trying.
Sometimes I wonder if he throws generic heat because he’s trying to minimize injury risk. In other words, he holds back on breaking stuff to avoid strain on his arm, in the same way that starters hold back on peak velocity to go deeper into the game.
I don’t think it’s a stretch to think lots of pre-free agency pitchers play it safe by minimizing strain at the expense of peak performance.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 21, 2012 12:32 AM EST reply actions
Hochevar.....
…is another guy I think might be doing this. Both Boras clients.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 21, 2012 12:34 AM EST up reply actions
Not sure about that.
But Hochevar routinely flashes dominance for sure. He’ll go out and K 9 dudes over 7 innings, with a wicked slider and mid 90s gas, and then disappear for 3 starts.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 21, 2012 1:15 AM EST up reply actions
But if he is generally ungood
how is he going to make a lot of money in FA?
Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place
Compare
Compare career earnings of league average or slightly above average work horse pitchers vs Mark Prior.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 21, 2012 1:59 AM EST up reply actions
I don't see Pelf getting real money or a multi year deal.
I see him falling more into a Jon Garland territory going from 1 year 5mil types of deals. Pelf doesn’t do any one thing well which GMs tend to favor.
Career Earnings
Edwin Jackson vs Mark Prior
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 21, 2012 2:10 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not arguing that guys don't make more in FA then they do in pre-arb and arbitration years.
And with regard to your comparison, Prior had bad mechanics. Chances are he was going to get hurt no matter how much he held back. And Jackson threw plenty of curve balls and sliders in his pre-FA days (anywhere from 14-30%).
What I meant is that Pelfrey would be severely limiting his career earnings by being half the pitcher he could have been in his pre-FA days since players are often mistakenly valued based on past performance, not future.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place
Was just an example.
Burnett has earned over 50 mil by having good seasons every 3 years. There’s a lot of money to be made by simply staying on the field.
The very large majority of even top pitching prospects survive to become #4 innings eaters.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 21, 2012 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
I meant ...
“…..fail to survive…..”
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 21, 2012 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
Pelfrey has always been a hoss with little injury concerns
It would be extremely counterproductive to say the least, to have been purposefully playing at say 75% his actual ability because of phantom concerns about his future health/performance.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
Ryder or Riot #WWWYKI
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest | 1st place- 2012 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 21, 2012 12:25 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Sharp Breaking Balls = Gambling
The baseline for a workhorse #4 is about 30 mil in earnings. If you can sustain this level of performance, you’re essentially locked in to make at least 30 mil before you turn 30. There’s a lot to lose by adding that cutter.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 21, 2012 1:14 PM EST up reply actions


































