A Month (Or So) From Spring Applesauce: Mets Interested In Francis, Rockies Interested In Turner, Is Anybody Interested In Carrasco?

that article was mediocre at best. there were numerous inaccuracies there so don’t put too much stock into that. i mean to say that he ’isn’t much of a prospect’ is just plain wrong.

first issue, he downplays lagares’ stock before 2011, painting him as a no-name with little pedrigree (‘Nobody thought much of him entering 2011.’). yet for those who know the mets system they’ll remember him as the robin to fmart’s batman in the ‘05 IFA signing class. he was considered a very big signing at that time. and for all the talk about fmart being rushed and injured, lagares was actually pushed almost as hard and also had injuries early in his career (fortunately they were not of the degenerative variety). to me lagares represented a kid with lots of talent who just hadn’t been healthy enough or in the right context to show it yet, your prototypical breakout candidate.

my next problem is that while BABIP and line drive rates are helpful indicators to look at, people have gotten very knee-jerk with them citing anything above .300 as purely luck-driven. so obviously the author doesn’t like lagares’ .396 mark in 2011. and while it obviously won’t stay that high — i’m looking mostly at his .439 mark in double-a — his .371 BABIP in st. lucie actually isn’t much higher than marks he’s hit in the past.

lagares had posted a .329 mark in 2010 with savannah, .362 the season before that. obviously he has a knack for BABIP’s above .300, which oftentimes indicates an advanced hit tool — as stated by KG about lagares in discussing his #5 ranking. scouts agreed that lagares had developed a very good ability to center up balls in 2011.

so it’s not just out of nowhere like that casey kotchman example which was completely irrelevant because kotchman had historically posted BABIP’s around .270 and then jumped up to .335. sometimes a high BABIP doesn’t indicate luck as much as it does a hitter on a tear. was AFL MVP nolan arenado lucky to post a .402 BABIP in 130 ab’s this fall? maybe a little but most scouts agree he’s an absolutely incredible hitter so how much more of it was arenado’s superb ability to square up balls just feasting on inferior competition?

the author cites minor league line drive stats to try and dispel that same ability in the case of lagares but if you’re going to put a lot of stock into those then you’re just wasting your time. those are rough estimates at best. you’re much better off listening to the first-hand reports of those who do this for a living.

once again, the author displays his lack of knowledge about the system when discussing waning speed due to 10 less stolen bases in 2011. yet in actuality lagares battled a fractured ankle early in 2011 which obviously didn’t let him run much early on. his raw athleticism is actually excellent. backman said this seaso, ‘He can play in the outfield in the big leagues. I mean, defensively his skills are good enough to play in the big leagues…He’s a 22-year-old kid who can play all three outfield positions. He’s got speed. He’s a good outfielder.’ and that was in just his first season since moving from shortstop.

in short, his BABIP won’t stay that high which means his average won’t either. but he is a damn good hitter so it doesn’t mean he’ll completely fall apart either. basically you shouldn’t take a .350 average in the upper minors lightly. the article points out some very real concerns going forward but to consider him a non-prospect at this point is again, just wrong.