2012 Mets Player Profile: Lucas Duda

by Chris McShane on Jan 25, 2012 10:00 AM EST

The Duda 'bides. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Lucas Duda wasn't typically mentioned as one of the Mets' top up-and-coming prospects after he was drafted. It’s wasn’t exactly unfair to overlook Duda, who didn’t live up to the .859 OPS he produced in his 2007 debut with the Brooklyn Cyclones over the course of the following two years. He was decent in St. Lucie in 2008 and again in Binghamton in 2009, but at the age of 24 in 2010, he began to mash even more than he did in Brooklyn. Between Binghamton and Buffalo, the Dude hit .304/.398/.569. That production got him a call up to the Mets that year, but in 92 plate appearances, he struggled at the plate outside of a few home runs.

Prior to the 2011 season, there wasn’t much certainty as to whether or not Duda would amount to much in the big leagues since he had been relatively old for the levels at which he played in 2010. He wound up making the Opening Day roster, though, thanks to the fact that Jason Bay was set to begin the year on the disabled list. Duda didn’t play very much, and in the little playing time he did get, he didn’t hit at all. By the beginning of May, he found himself back in Buffalo, but he wasted no time in getting his bat going once he got there. His .302/.414/.597 line earned him a second chance with the Mets in June when the Mets started dropping like flies.

Although Duda didn’t hit his first home run of the year until July 23, he was quite impressive with the bat upon his return to the big leagues. By the end of the year, he had posted a .292/.370/.482 slash line, good for a .368 wOBA. While Carlos Beltran was still around, Duda played first base, but he shifted to right field on an everyday basis not long after Beltran was traded to the Giants. If there’s one major flaw in Duda’s game, it’s that he looked like a liability in the field at both positions.

The Mets find themselves in a rather fortunate position with Duda to begin the season. Even though their trade of Beltran seemed obvious very early last year, there was no heir apparent in right field for 2012 and beyond. Whether or not Duda will be a player to build around remains to be seen, but he appears to be a capable, affordable, bat-first right fielder. If he can replicate his offensive production from 2011, he should be a great value, and if manages to improve at the plate, he could be a steal. And if all else fails, he’s probably still going to hit a few home runs of the 450-foot variety this year, and each one of those is awesome to watch in its own right.

	G	PA	HR	SB	SB%	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
2011	100	347	10	1	100.0%	9.5%	16.4%	.292	.370	.482	.368	136	0.9
Career	129	439	14	1	100.0%	8.9%	18.0%	.273	.347	.468	.352	124	0.6

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really excited for duda this year

Wright, davis, duda

by jhMLB on Jan 25, 2012 10:29 AM EST via mobile reply actions

Duda

Along with Davis is the most intriguing Met for me in 2012. The bat is obviously for real, but the real question is going to be if he is a .800-.850 OPS guy again (in which case, defense and baserunning will erode a lot of his value as a RF) or if he can take another step and become a 30+ home run, .900+ OPS guy over a full season (in which case, the bat plays anywhere).

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@jeffpaternostro

by Jeffrey Paternostro on Jan 25, 2012 10:34 AM EST reply actions

who hits more home runs

Duda and Davis, or Fielder and Cabrera?

kidding mostly. but it still should be fun.

-Ceetar, the Optimistic Mets Fan

by Ceetar on Jan 25, 2012 11:34 AM EST up reply actions

This is one of the reasons why I'm watching the Mets this season

Hopefully to see Davis and Duda blossom into even better talents

Arteta, it's all about the right pass it goes left to the left foot of VAN PERSIE
Proud member of Fusillade and The Short Fuse

by Aidan Gibson on Jan 25, 2012 3:46 PM EST up reply actions

Even better than Cabrera and Fielder??

I would happily take them evolving to the same talent level at those two. Any higher and you’re talking all-time greats.

by METiculous on Jan 25, 2012 6:00 PM EST up reply actions

Not better than Cabrera and Fielder

But even better talents relative to what they’ve been

Arteta, it's all about the right pass it goes left to the left foot of VAN PERSIE
Proud member of Fusillade and The Short Fuse

by Aidan Gibson on Jan 26, 2012 9:50 AM EST up reply actions

Duda

I don’t doubt his bat; his offensive skillset is a really good one for a hitter. To me, the question is whether he can handle RF passably enough so that his offensive value isn’t completely negated.

by nmigliore on Jan 25, 2012 10:38 AM EST reply actions

In a perfect world...

Bay hits the DL/gets traded/just doesn’t play anymore, Duda moves to LF (where I think he can be just below scratch defensively), Kirk comes in and handles RF duties admirably, and Torres just roams CF like a Free Safety and gobbles everything up.

But yeah, I do think Duda has 30 home run potential this year. Him and Ike, to be honest. Even before the walls were being moved in I thought their left handed bats played well in Citi Field. I mean, they’ve hit some moon shots already and the park didn’t seem to suppress LHB as much as it did RHB. The walls coming in only makes that potential more likely. Best thing about Duda, is the power comes naturally to him so he doesn’t have an over reaching swing. If the home runs aren’t there at first, we know he’s still going to drive the ball well in the gaps.

You always root for laundry. Of course, you'd like to have good players in that laundry as well.

by MetsCity on Jan 25, 2012 10:56 AM EST reply actions

perfect world

why wouldn’t a perfect world mean Bay hitting like his career best year? That’s gotta be better than ‘Kirk admirably’ right?

-Ceetar, the Optimistic Mets Fan

by Ceetar on Jan 25, 2012 11:36 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah

I think I’m just tired of the Jason Bay stench at this point. That also doesn’t fix Duda in RF on defense.

You always root for laundry. Of course, you'd like to have good players in that laundry as well.

by MetsCity on Jan 25, 2012 12:14 PM EST up reply actions

Well, in a perfect world

Bay would hit like Bay of old for half a season, Sandy will flip him to some desperate would-be contender for a legitimate prospect, Duda moves to left, and then the Cap’n comes up and rakes. This is all a longshot, but I can dream!

by BurleighGrimes on Jan 25, 2012 1:23 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

You have dreams

And your dreams, you like your dreams.

You always root for laundry. Of course, you'd like to have good players in that laundry as well.

by MetsCity on Jan 25, 2012 1:30 PM EST up reply actions

I'm not sure he's a good bet to be the 30-40 HR type that we want him to be

It’s not like he’s young for the league, he’ll be 26 during the season. When you adjust for a full year of playing time, even with a slight increase in performance, he’s still pretty much a 20 HR guy. His HR/FB ratio is about 10%. An elite slugger tends to be around 15-20%.

I still think he’s a great hitter but I predict his poor defense will limit him to being more of an average every-day corner OF.

by TheBigStapler on Jan 25, 2012 11:26 AM EST reply actions

I think 20 is very achievable for Duda, and 25 is max upside for 2012.

by Curtis3331 on Jan 26, 2012 3:16 AM EST up reply actions

O.K.

that HR hitting Derby just looks too crazy.

Cranes? Dunk tanks? Quack the Rubber Duckey? Musicians? All with 500 people on the IF and a bar at 2nd base?

This would be worth the price of the ticket.

by MetsFan4Decades on Jan 25, 2012 11:36 AM EST reply actions

Well dang...

obviously, this was to suppose to be posted in the last thread.

Upgraded my browser, having all kinds of issues. Gotta love computers….

by MetsFan4Decades on Jan 25, 2012 11:38 AM EST up reply actions

defense

Right field had a patch of grass that was worn more than the rest of the field, that’s where Duda stood for every play.

by dunnowhat2type on Jan 25, 2012 11:38 AM EST reply actions

I keep reading

that the key to Duda’s success lies in a confidence issue, more so than skill.
Must be something to that b/c it’s been frequently mentioned.

If he gets off to a good start, I expect the confidence issue will take care of itself, right?

by MetsFan4Decades on Jan 25, 2012 11:48 AM EST reply actions

I think

Duda overcame his confidence issues during the last two months of the season where he really started to pick it up and start mashing the ball over the fence more. It stands to reason he should carry that over to this season.

You always root for laundry. Of course, you'd like to have good players in that laundry as well.

by MetsCity on Jan 25, 2012 12:16 PM EST up reply actions

I think Duda can definitely be a .900+ OPS guy

I might just be SSSing the hell out of this, but his second half was monstrous compared to his pathetic first half. I’ve heard about confidence issues, and I’ve heard how he’s overcome them when he started mashing.

His home/road splits are funny. On the road, he had a 15.1 HR/FB, and a .239 ISO, but a 3 HR/FB at home with a .134 ISO. Projecting his bat may be tough because of the hamate injury he had, but I like what I’ve seen, and the new dimensions should help him hit like he does on the road. Because of his plate discipline and contact skills, his wRC+ were roughly the same at home and away.

I’m not as worried about his defense as most people are. He’ll never be a good right fielder, and he’s probably better suited for LF with his range/arm, but with the new dimensions and the range-y Torres (and possibly Den Dekker as a 4th OF later in the year) in center, he shouldn’t have to cover as much ground. I don’t think he’ll be like Brad Hawpe where god-awful D ruins any offensive value, and then some.

If all else fails, and he bombs in the OF and on the basepaths, it will at least be fun to have him bat behind Wright and Ike for a full year.

37 - 14 - 41 - 31 - 17 - 42 - SHEA

by piazza62 on Jan 25, 2012 1:21 PM EST reply actions

How is Dann Dekker going to play

When you have Bay?

by halflink123 on Jan 25, 2012 5:36 PM EST up reply actions

He spot all three spots in the OF

Elite glove.

37 - 14 - 41 - 31 - 17 - 42 - SHEA

by piazza62 on Jan 25, 2012 5:59 PM EST up reply actions

I know that the Dude still has a lot to prove at the major league level.

But I already love the big guy, floor-level projections be damned!

by BurleighGrimes on Jan 25, 2012 1:26 PM EST reply actions

Could the new dimensions of RF

help him suck less out there? Not sure if its been discussed or not. Just curious if the dimensions effected him last year.

by SFloridaMetsFan on Jan 25, 2012 2:07 PM EST reply actions

Dickey, Davis, Duda

The most exciting Mets this year to me (in obvious order), though I have no idea what to expect from the Dude. 20 HR? 40? Acceptable defense, or a disaster?

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf. "

– Tug McGraw when asked about his preference for grass or astroturf

by Terry_is_God on Jan 25, 2012 3:24 PM EST reply actions

the killer D's!

Am I doing this right?

by brooklynberger on Jan 25, 2012 3:59 PM EST up reply actions

ducking delfrey

"..."

by Thaddeus Ballpheasant on Jan 25, 2012 5:11 PM EST up reply actions

When you can hit a ball 500 feet

No one gives a **** about the D.

As Earl Weaver said, “give me a bunch of big ******* who can hit the ball out of the ballpark and you won’t make any ******** mistakes” or something to that effect. Very scientific guy, that Earl Weaver.

by halflink123 on Jan 25, 2012 5:38 PM EST up reply actions

Have liked Duda for a while now

Anyone who puts up the numbers he put up in AAA deserves a chance. He got the chance, did a great job, and there aren’t a whole lot of players who can do what he has the potential to do, namely slug, get on base, and hit for average. No player is perfect – Duda’s defense may not be his strength, but his strengths MORE than make up for this weakness.

As for the Beltran trade, I wanted the Mets to trade Beltran PRECISELY to give Duda more AB’s. I actually thought Duda would have a better second half than Beltran. Was wrong about that, but Duda hit very well.

As an aside, I would just like to say that my AAOP offseason plan was far, far closer to the Mets actual offseason than any of the finalists. I remember how people grilled me because my payroll was LESS THAN the $100M ceiling, at 90M. Well, guess what the Mets’ opening day payroll is projected to be? Yup that’s right $90M.

by halflink123 on Jan 25, 2012 5:35 PM EST reply actions

The goal of the AAOP isn't to forcaste the future

it’s to make the best team with the money allotted – which last season was $110M.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place

by Ogre39666 on Jan 25, 2012 5:59 PM EST up reply actions

I thought that was Sandy's job?

To make the best team possible within a $100M payroll? That’s how Sandy did it, and his plan was far more similar to mine than any of the finalists.

Kind of discredits you and more importantly, the ability of the people running this website to select winning AAOP’s.

Maybe amazinavenue should just drop the AAOPs into a hat and pick at random, they would do a better job of it IMO.

And next time when you post something try to make at least a little bit of sense.

by halflink123 on Jan 25, 2012 8:16 PM EST up reply actions

So many things wrong...

Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place

by Ogre39666 on Jan 25, 2012 8:36 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

I don't submit an AAOP because I'm lazy

If the goal is to get as close to reality as possible, then the AA staff should wait until april 1 to hand out the prizes. If the goal is to make the best team within a certain payroll framework (which it is), then what are you complaining about?

I believe in one Dickey, Maker of knuckles and balls

by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on Jan 26, 2012 8:06 AM EST up reply actions

It's just a fun activity to do during the offseason

It’s not a predictor of what the Mets will do, it’s just what you would do if you ran the Mets. And whoever has a plan, and their plan, they like their plan and it’s the most plausible while being creative will win.

37 - 14 - 41 - 31 - 17 - 42 - SHEA

by piazza62 on Jan 26, 2012 8:40 AM EST up reply actions