Expectations for 2012

The Mets have had seemingly awful luck the past two years, but despite all their injuries, down years, disappointments, they’ve had pythagorean win-loss records of 81-81 and 79-82. If they had stayed healthy, and played like their selves, they could have made the playoffs every year 2009-2011. They had the 6th best ERA in the NL in 2010 despite a very mediocre, on paper, staff. In 2011, they had the 6th best offense in the NL despite having no power, injuries, and a traded Beltran.

In my opinion, the 2010-2011 Mets rosters were not significantly better than the 2008 roster that contended. That team just had stayed healthy. All I hope for this season is individual success stories. Players bounce back, progress, and have a clean bill of health. Get enough of those and you can be in the hunt late into the season.

I’d like to see this season play out before I get all bullish on the Nats and Marlins. The Nats could be great, but don’t forget how some had predicted Oakland to win the division in ‘11 with their incredible young pitching rotation and the bats they brought in. Didn’t work in the slightest for them.

The Marlins are one Reyes injury away from falling apart. Anibal Sanchez and Josh Johnson have histories of arm injuries. What are they going to do if one of them goes down, LeBlanc, Hand? What are they going to tell Hanley after they give his position to Reyes, who gets hurt and someone else is playing short? He won’t respond well when that happens.

As a kid watching and enjoying the heck out that ‘69 WS, I thought it was always going to be just that easy. Come the 70s and mid 80s, I had realized that wasn’t true.

1986 was my favorite season. But it’s been too long now. I know ’73 and 2000 were an almost and I really thought 2006 was going to be our year. Sigh…not to be.

And the team are thus are forced to win the whole damn thing?

a top 3 bullpen in the NL (by FIP), and finish a little under .500 (78-84) because our starting rotation is grotesquely thin and Johan will pitch under 120 innings (4.5 ERA), Niese will pitch 150 (3.9 ERA), Dickey will pitch 200 (3.0 ERA), Gee will pitch 180 (4.0 ERA), and Pelf will pitch 170 (5.75 ERA), of which we’ll wish 170 never happened. The rest will be filled by org. filler pitchers because Sandy isn’t stupid enough to burn prospects before they’re ready, but we’ll curse the horrible starting pitchers he’s forced to trot out there on a regular basis. Ike Davis will hit 30 HRs, Lucas Duda 28, David Wright 33 hrs, Jason Bay will hit .275, and 15 HRs, but his walk rate will be low and k rate will be high (I’ll guess 8% and 19% respectively). Ruben Tejada will receive gold glove consideration (but ultimately not win) although he’ll put up a fairly empty .260 BA with a modest walk rate. Andres Torres will surprise us all with his offense, and will rapidly become a fan favorite.

To expand upon this prediction, even though we’re going to lose a lot of games, and not in glorious fashion I’ll still enjoy every minute of it, because its still Mets baseball, and even if it’s not pretty, thats good enough for me.

A 2012 Yankees/Phillies WS? Really?
Ugh….here’s hoping that prediction is wrong.

I just want them to prove that wrong