Have you projected your favorite Mets at FanGraphs yet? If anyone should put their stamp on that crowdsourcing effort, it should be our community, so consider this a plea to do so. Our reason may have to balance out some irrational exuberance, or vice-versa.
In the meantime, and in order to perhaps give you easy links to key figures, we'll look at what the fans have projected so far, compared to ZiPs, and discuss where the difference may have come from.
We'll see the beginning of a trend here with the fans being more positive and ZiPs being more pessimistic, but it 's nice to see that ZiPs has the same opinion about Wright keeping his strikeout rate down. From our Project: David Wright piece, we can perhaps say that Hudgens has helped close that hole on the outisde part of the plate. Where the fans and ZiPs disagree is on health and power. It's hard to say if a fractured back means he'll have a hard time staying healthy, and it's hard to say if he'll get his power back. But he certainly can put up the numbers that the Fans are projecting. It's possible -- then again, if he hits those numbers, does he get traded?
This is what happens when you miss most of a season early in your career, it seems. ZiPs sees nothing but a big hole in half your career and figures you've got problems staying healthy. But if it was just a one-time thing, then ZiPs will whiff on his playing time for sure. As for the strikeout rate -- you can see where that number came from. Davis struck out too often in Double-A and has that hitch in his swing. It's a warning sign to the young man, that he needs to make sure to make contact. Most of the power and OBP gap is explained by the difference in batting average, which is explained by that strikeout rate. So, how often do you think a guy that has whiffed on 9.6% of the pitches he's seen (8.5% is average) will strike out this year?
Ruben Tejada (project him)
We did practically a series of posts on Ruben Tejada's walk rate, but even those percentage points of difference in the projections are meaningful -- one's above average and one is below. Otherwise, it's just a few singles that separate these lines. Consensus? (Also, the fans so far have Tejada with a +1 run glove at shortstop -- do you think he can do better?)
El Dudaroni will get a full Project write up soon, but here we get a peek into what the issues will be. There isn't a ton of harmony between these two lines -- ZiPs doesn't agree with the Fans on Duda's ability to show the same power or contact in his sophomore effort. Looking up and down his player card, though, it's unclear why all the pessimism about his strikeout rate. The only time Duda struck out more than 20% of the time above High-A was in his 92-PA debut. The power? It's an open and obvious question. Take the plunge and opine.
We actually have a fair amount of data on Murphy -- over 1100 PAS worth -- so it's not surprising that these projections line up. The biggest difference comes in playing time, where the Fans think that Murphy can actually make it through a semi-full year at second base. Can he protect his knee? Can he figure out the turn? Or do these fans think that Murphy is headed to third after a big trade? After a couple of years of plus defense around the infield -- numbers which might surprise some observers -- the Fans also penciled Murphy in for a scratch glove this year. Scratch at second, with those numbers... sounds good.
Here, the question is about a few ticks of walk rate. Thole Mole has been pretty steady so far in his career, so this result isn't so surprising. Will he walk more like 2010 or 2011? Figuring that out is your mission, should you accept it.
Surprised by the degree to which these lines agree? Perhaps the Fans are giving Bay a little more power from the new walls, but it's not showing up in the home run numbers. Their pessimism about Bay's walks is understandable. It's been a tough couple of years to watch the prized acquisition at the plate.