AAOP: Go Elite or Go Home 2 – Citi Field's First Playoff Games in 2013

Thanks to the generous $110 million budget, the Mets are going to the playoffs in 2013! But with only five days to string this together, this will be short and simple sequel to my previous AAOP.


  • Whenever you can get an elite player (here defined as someone who can realistically be projected to average 5+ WAR in coming seasons,) you do so. We're keeping R.A. Dickey with a 4/40 contract that starts this year. We're inking David Wright to a 7/140 extension.
  • WAR here is projected using fWAR for position players and rWAR for pitchers.
  • We're trying to maintain depth. For example, between Daniel Murphy, Jordany Valdespin and Wilmer Flores, one can be traded and we'll still have credible depth at second base. Trading two either require a productive and injury-free season, or bringing in another player beyond whichever utility player we have on the bench.
  • We're not trading away injured players because their trade value is currently low.
  • Avoid Scott Boras clients.

First a Trade

Justin Upton. BOOYAH!!! I thought that Kevin Towers would be tough to trade with, but then this happened. We'll send Jon Niese, Wilmer Flores, and Justin Turner to Arizona for our new right fielder. If that's not enough, we'll throw in Jeurys Familia.

Then we non-tender

Acosta and Pelfrey are not going to arbitration this year. It's just not happening. Besides, F.X. Carden might not survive another season of the Acostalypse, which would be tragic.

Now we sign talent

We really need help behind the plate, in the outfield, and in the bullpen. We only have so much money, and there is positional scarcity with catchers and center fielders.

We'll just keep the catchers that we have for 2013. It's not like there is an elite 27 year old catcher available anyway.

Center field is tough. I've racked my brains over this one. Either an acceptable solution will be expensive but underwhelming, or we have to shop in the bargain-bin for the upcoming season. There are no prospects that can credibly patrol Citi Field's center field, and provide a close to league average bat for the coming season. We'll bring back Torres. He projects to get $3.2 million in arbitration, which provides the Mets with surplus value over what he did in 2012. If den Dekker's bat progresses enough, Torres may be traded or benched.

Left field will feature Scott Hairston, signed to a 2/10 deal. Southpaws everywhere are trembling.

The bench will involve a roll of the dice on Grady Sizemore. He could still be a full blown elite player if his reconstructed knees decide to cooperate. One year at $2 million.

Because Niese is now in Cactus Country, we'll bring back Chris Young. Look for him to be replaced in the rotation in June by Zack Wheeler if Young's arm doesn't fall off by then.

The bullpen is shaping up, but we need to get outside help. We'll bring in Mike Adams on a 2/8 deal, and Luis Ayala on a 1/4 deal.

Elite Summary

We've lost no major league level elite talent. We've retained Dickey and Wright. We've added Justin Upton. That right there is awesome. Add in the lottery ticket on Grady Sizemore, and 2013 is looking sweet in Flushing. How sweet? The 2013 Mets now project to have a record of... (drum roll please)...94-68!

Starting Lineup

Salary Player Position WAR
$2,000,000 Kelly Shoppach C 1.0
$2,800,000 Ike Davis 1B 3.5
$3,000,000 Daniel Murphy 2B 2.0
$15,000,000 David Wright 3B 6.0
$500,000 Ruben Tejada SS 2.5
$5,000,000 Scott Hairston LF 2.0
$3,200,000 Andres Torres CF 2.0
$9,750,000 Justin Upton RF 4.0


Salary Player Position WAR
$500,000 Mike Baxter OF/1B 1.0
$2,000,000 Grady Sizemore OF 1.0
$1,200,000 Josh Thole C -0.5
$2,000,000 Ronny Cedeño IF 0.6
$500,000 Josh Satin IF 0.0

Pitching Rotation

Salary Player Position WAR
$10,000,000 R.A. Dickey Deity 5.0
$24,000,000 Johan Santana LHP 1.0
$500,000 Dillon Gee RHP 2.0
$500,000 Matt Harvey RHP 5.0
Chris Young/ Zack Wheeler RHP 3.0


Salary Player Position WAR
$500,000 Jeremy Hefner RHP 0.0
$4,000,000 Mike Adams RHP 1.0
$500,000 Josh Edgin LHP 1.5
$6,500,000 Frank Francisco RHP 0.0
$500,000 Daniel Herrera LHP 0.2
$1,200,000 Bobby Parnell RHP 1.5
$4,000,000 Luis Ayala RHP 1.5

GM mistakes

Salary Player Position WAR
$6,000,000 Jason Bay OF 0.0
$1,000,000 Gary Matthews, Jr. OF 0.0

Adding it up

$107,150,000 We're within budget, and projecting a record of 94-68! 46.8 WAR

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.

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