2012 Mets Player Profile: Daniel Murphy
The Irish Hammer burst on to the scene with the Mets in the summer of 2008 when Marlon Anderson, pinch-hitter extraordinaire of the 2005 Mets who was inexplicably on the 25-man roster, hit the disabled list. Prior to his promotion, Daniel Murphy hadn’t exactly torn up the lower levels of the minors, but his production in Binghamton earned him his shot with the Mets. In 151 plate appearances over the rest of the season, Murphy hit .313/.397/.473. It was a small sample, but the Mets saw enough in Murphy’s debut to put him on the Opening Day roster in 2009.
Murphy began the year in left field but struggled mightily with the position before Carlos Delgado underwent season-ending hip surgery, prompting the Mets to shift Murphy to first base. At the time, Murphy had only made 13 appearances at first base as a professional baseball player, but he wound up playing the position pretty well. At the plate, however, Murphy had a good-not-great year, hitting .266/.313/.417, his 94 wRC+ ranking second-to-last among qualified first basemen.
Despite the down year, Murphy entered 2010 with a shot at the starting gig at first base, but he went down with a right knee sprain at the end of spring training, which resulted in the Mets giving Mike Jacobs the position on Opening Day. Jacobs didn’t last very long before Ike Davis made it very clear that he’d be the team’s first baseman for the foreseeable future. When Murphy returned to action in Buffalo, he was at second base, where he had dabbled in his 2008 season of positional experimentation in Binghamton. Very shortly thereafter, Murphy’s knee was again injured by what many of his teammates considered a dirty slide. This time, Murphy was out for the remainder of the season, stunting his potential defensive development at second base.
Last year, Murphy began the season with the Mets, accumulating 423 plate appearances while playing at first, second, and third base. Unfortunately, his season once again came to a premature halt when he was injured by a slide while playing attempting to turn a double play at second base. He hit .320/.362/.448 on the season, which wasn’t quite as good as his brief debut in 2008 but was certainly an improvement from his production in 2009.
Given the current state of the Mets’ roster, there’s no question that Murphy should be the starting second baseman for the upcoming season. His bat is clearly a better option than that of Justin Turner or Ronny Cedeno. Murphy may not be a defensive wizard, but neither Turner nor Cedeno would play exceptional defense at second base if given the opportunity. It’s obviously concerning that Murphy’s pair of season-ending injuries both came while playing the position, but the Mets would be best served to have his bat in the lineup on an everyday basis. So long as he’s able to avoid injury, Murphy’s bat figures to rank well above average at second base.
| G | PA | HR | SB | SB% | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 109 | 423 | 6 | 5 | 50.0% | 5.7% | 9.9% | .320 | .362 | .448 | .350 | 124 | 3.2 |
| Career | 313 | 1130 | 20 | 9 | 50.0% | 7.1% | 12.3% | .292 | .343 | .441 | .338 | 110 | 5.4 |
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As I interpolate from the above, his walk rate came down in 2009, and again last season.
Since his k% also seems to’ve dropped both years(?), that’s acceptable, but not optimal. I’m hoping the organizational ‘patience at the plate’ emphasis brings his OBP back up closer to .400.
Still, I like Murphy, and in my mind he’ll always be linked to Evans, who I thought got a raw deal from the Mets. No offense to Baxter, but I’d rather have Evans
With low K and BB rates (and HR too), his offense will live and die by the BABIP goddess.
He has always swung outside the zone a tick higher than the league average and has posted contact rates (zone and outside) higher than average. This is in line with his aggressive approach at the plate and in the field.
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He does hit a ton of doubles and with the changes to the ballpark some of those doubles may turn into homers.
by graves9 on Feb 1, 2012 3:59 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
He showed he has potential pop in 2010, with 13 homers or whatever it was
I’ll take a second baseman who can pop off 15 homers or so, while hitting let’s say .280/.340. That’s like Chase Utley lite.
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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 1, 2012 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah twelve homers in '09
He sadly lead the team in homers that year. I could definitely see him being a 12-15 homer guy.
Twelve in '09, not thirteen in '10
The crappy years feel like one big, horrible year all blended together.
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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 1, 2012 5:53 PM EST up reply actions
If he keeps the same walk rate from '11, his line would be more like .280/.320 or .300/.340
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Even if 10 of his doubles become HRs, that would only decrease the BABIP by 0.010 and increase his slugging by 0.034.
His value is going to be tied to balls in play because he is the anti-true-3-outcomes, even more so since he cut both his K and BB rates from ’09 to ’11.
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Yeah, this.
If he hits .320, being ‘anti-true-three-outcomes’ isn’t a bad thing. Since he’s effectively done that twice, I’m fairly optimistic… if he remains healthy.
let's see
2008, 151 PA, .382 BABIP led to a .313 BA
2009, 556 PA, .284 BABIP led to a .266 BA
2011, 423 PA, .345 BABIP led to a .320 BA
Almost half of his plate appearances occurred in 2009, and he had a not so hot BABIP that year, though still solid numbers from a 2B, in 2011 – wOBA would have been 7th. I think it is too early in his career to know what to expect from him unfortunately, other than doubles
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"He does hit a ton of doubles and with the changes to the ballpark some of those doubles may turn into homers."
I’m guessing not more than two or three.
I see Murphy finally staying healthy this coming season
And hitting over 300. With a dozen homers and around 40 doubles.
by graves9 on Feb 1, 2012 4:02 PM EST via mobile reply actions
If he can passably play second (and I'm cautiously optimistic that he can)
I’d be plenty happy with that line. They haven’t gotten production near that level from second since Jose Valentin’s magical mystery tour in 2006.
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by Steve Schreiber on Feb 1, 2012 4:12 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I think any Mets fan would be ecstatic if a healthy Murphy put up that line.
That would be close to an all-star performance by NL 2B standards. I just hope the Irish Hammer manages to avoid major injury this year. That knee injury last year looked excruciating.
by BurleighGrimes on Feb 1, 2012 4:45 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
As Michkin says, .300 is questionable
but I would take 12 HRs and 40 doubles from my 2B if he hit .270, especially if that guy was Murph
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It could happen, but his offense in general will be highly tied to his BABIP.
He wasn’t posting the BB rates to boost his OBP, if his BABIP falters.
#praiseBianca!
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I know
it’s the empty batting average some people didn’t want to admit about him last year
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The empty batting average came from him making a lot more contact than his career numbers
.320 was probably over his head, but maybe not. He might have the best pure contact skills on the team and I would expect him to hit higher than .270.
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I think the fact that his line drive rate is pretty solid and he sprays the ball
can keep his babip relatively above average. If he’s hitting in front of Wright in the 2 hole (since 2b must bat 2nd!) he’ll get some pitches to hit, too. Sometimes with age comes a bit of plate discipline too, we’ll see.
he might be leading off
SSS, but he seems to do better batting 5-7 in the lineup
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How long until Putnan Prince
decrees Murph (and Duda again) as strictly DHs?
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I think Murphy can field, but with two knee injuries his range might be limited at second.
Duda is more DH material, but I’d like to try him him left. I think Murphy is a quite acceptable infielder at the corners.
I don't agree with his opinion (or his insistence in posting the same thing), but in the name of "good neighborhood", we shouldn't be calling out other commenters like that.
It might sound like baiting or alienate other people who have a different opinion.
Unless it’s to make fun of fxcarden and his green sky, then it’s ok.
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or someone is a clear troll
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3.2 WAR in 100+ games
Wow I knew he had a good year…..but i didnt know it was THAT GOOD. If he kept that pace thats a 5.0+ WAR which is the kind All-Stars regularly get.
Personally I love Murphy. I see him as a really good #6 hitter. He puts the ball in play. He doesnt draw many walks or strikeouts he’s just up there to hit the ball and he could drive a lot of guys in if we can just get them on the bathpaths. There’s absolutely no question that he the starter at 2B.
Yeah, someone was pumping him for fifth last week.
I think he’d be good in the two or six hole, but I don’t think he has the power to be a classic fifth hitter..
Murphy
I’d like to see him sacrifice some of that batting average for patience that could result in a higher Walk Rate and a higher slugging percentage. If you’re more selective at the plate, it can open up the chance to be able to crush the pitches you’re waiting for.
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He did have a good walk in '08 and hit 300.
Since ‘09 his walk rate has gone down. He seems to see a good deal of pitches per at bat, but the walks haven’t been there. I’d love to see him get back to drawing close to the walk rate he was drawing in ‘08, but that’s not that all likely. If I’m not mistaken his obp was always tied to a high batting avg in the minors.
by graves9 on Feb 2, 2012 11:40 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Even so
His ISO went down last year, and I think that was due in part to perhaps him covering more of the plate which produced weaker contact. I’d rather he take some more strikes to sit on his pitch a bit more so he can drive the ball better than he did last year. Also, his BB% in ’09 was 12.4% and went down to 9.9% in ’11. That 12.4% is much better and I think is attainable for ’12.
Also, he did hit 28 doubles last year, but in ‘09 he was more of a doubles machine with 38 (I know in 41 more games, but still) on top of his 12 home runs. That is a much better XBH total at the end of the year. I’m a big fan of Murph, just want him to get back some of that pop to his bat he showed in ’09.
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