2012 AA Prospects List #6

by Ogre39666 on Feb 14, 2012 12:01 AM EST

With 32% of the vote Kirk Nieuwenhuis is elected the #5 prospect.

4: Brandon Nimmo, OF

5: Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF

The poll for #6 will be open until 12AM on Thursday. When voting please do so without looking at the results first. I know it's tempting but I would like an honest result.

Additionally, please lobby who should be added to the next poll in the comments.

Poll

Who is the Mets' #6 prospect?

Cesar Puello, OF

9 votes

Wilmer Flores, SS

9 votes

Michael Fulmer, SP

4 votes

Jordany Valdespin, MI

9 votes

Reese Havens, MI

25 votes

Cory Mazzoni, SP

0 votes

Juan Lagares, OF

2 votes

Matt den Dekker, OF

1 votes

Juan Urbina, SP

0 votes

59 votes | Poll has closed

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For the next vote

I lobby Albert Cordero and Darin Gorski

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by SwedeMet on Feb 14, 2012 5:54 AM EST reply actions

Wow, surprised by all the Havens love around here

Why is everyone so high on a guy who is going to be 26 who can’t stay on the field? I think he should still be close to the top ten, but if he misses time again this year he shouldn’t even be considered a prospect anymone IMO.

by crazycarLUXC on Feb 14, 2012 10:57 AM EST reply actions

Even with the injuries, he still crushed AAA, unlike other prospects who derailed after DL (Fartinez).

He posted numbers, and peripherals that support them, indicating he can be an above average in the majors very soon. Some people take into account “position of need” in their prospect rankings, especially if they are ML ready, partially explaining why they rank Havens and Lutz so differently.
Many other prospects don’t have the same impact, are so far away or haven’t played well in AA (considered the biggest jump in the minors).

In lobby for: Jaime Cevallos, Zack Lutz, orange unis and Rickroll as the 7th inning song.
The Unwritten Rules of AA

by Michkin on Feb 14, 2012 11:41 AM EST up reply actions

I'm assuming you mean AA

Havens has never reached AAA. And also unlike Martinez Havens has been at least age appropriate for his league, but is now starting to get a little old. I think if he’s healthy for the first half he will not be far from a callup, but I’m just not confident in his health.

by crazycarLUXC on Feb 14, 2012 12:49 PM EST up reply actions

Yes AA, sorry about the confusion.

In lobby for: Jaime Cevallos, Zack Lutz, orange unis and Rickroll as the 7th inning song.
The Unwritten Rules of AA

by Michkin on Feb 14, 2012 1:06 PM EST up reply actions

At #6 we're well out of the slam dunk prospect territory

But Havens is close to the majors, has power and discipline, really no holes in his game at all, all while playing a valuable defensive position. Make no mistake, the injuries are a huge issue, but I’m optimistic that the surgery should do a lot to allay his chronic oblique pain.

At his age, this is clearly a make or break year for him. If he gets hurt again, my optimism will fall right off a cliff.

by TheBigStapler on Feb 14, 2012 12:38 PM EST up reply actions

His surgery was in 2010

and he still had other injuries in 2011 including back problems not related to the oblique. Maybe that was just a conditioning problem, but the guy is still really fragile.

by crazycarLUXC on Feb 14, 2012 12:51 PM EST up reply actions

I thought those injuries were related to the healing process from surgery

by TheBigStapler on Feb 14, 2012 1:25 PM EST up reply actions

From what I remember, they were.

He also had the surgery pretty late in the offseason. In fact, I just did a search and a year ago today here at AA, Rob wrote up this piece about Havens having surgery 8 weeks ago (which would’ve been some time in December). It took a while for him to heal and I think he had soreness which was attributed to the surgery that held him back. Can’t remember if the time he missed in June/July was related, though.

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by Steve Schreiber on Feb 14, 2012 1:41 PM EST up reply actions

Pretty much what you said plus Havens downtime this year seemed more about

recovering from his weird surgery. I hear he lost a bunch of muscle this time last year and he’s packing it back on all offseason which is why he skipped winter league ball.

by FrancoTAU on Feb 14, 2012 7:09 PM EST up reply actions

Yup, this too.

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by Steve Schreiber on Feb 14, 2012 7:15 PM EST up reply actions

Picked Valdespin

Just like his upside a lot. And he turned a lot of his “tools” into production this year. I like Havens a lot too, but like other people said he’s been hurt so much and is starting to get on the “old” side for prospects. He’s becoming reminiscent to Zach Lutz. Ton of potential with the bat, but the injuries have derailed their timetables. Does anyone know if Havens is slated to start the year at Triple A or Double A?

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by MetsCity on Feb 14, 2012 2:09 PM EST reply actions

Nothing offical but I imagine AAA. If there's ever time to push a guy aggresiively it's at age 25

It’s not like he was struggling in the small sample size either.

by FrancoTAU on Feb 14, 2012 7:10 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed

You always root for laundry. Of course, you'd like to have good players in that laundry as well.

by MetsCity on Feb 15, 2012 10:33 AM EST up reply actions

Where do you put Satin then?

I figured he would start at 2b for Buffalo.

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Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.- Former Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan

by Blame-everyone-else on Feb 15, 2012 11:44 AM EST up reply actions

1B?

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by Ogre39666 on Feb 15, 2012 3:43 PM EST up reply actions

Allen Dykstra

will play there

A deadline has a wonderful way of concentrating the mind.-Professor James Moriarty
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.- Former Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan

by Blame-everyone-else on Feb 15, 2012 8:13 PM EST up reply actions

I would assume he's a utility guy in Buffalo.

He’ll probably see enough time at second, considering Havens’ injury issues as well as time at 3rd with Lutz’s injury issues. He could also sub in at first base for Allen Dykstra against tough lefties. And I would imagine they’ll try to get him some time in the corner outfield as well.

I don’t see him starting over Havens. Out of the two of them, Havens is easily the better prospect and he’s ready for AAA at this point. He just needs to stay healthy.

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by Steve Schreiber on Feb 15, 2012 5:31 PM EST up reply actions

This is the year that both Havens and Lutz play more than 100 games.

My unnamed source told me so.

In lobby for: Jaime Cevallos, Zack Lutz, orange unis and Rickroll as the 7th inning song.
The Unwritten Rules of AA

by Michkin on Feb 15, 2012 6:15 PM EST up reply actions

Then who has 2b at Bingo?

If you put Havnes in AAA with Satin, who’s left at AA? Tovar is too raw to play there.

A deadline has a wonderful way of concentrating the mind.-Professor James Moriarty
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.- Former Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan

by Blame-everyone-else on Feb 15, 2012 8:12 PM EST up reply actions

I'd assume a placeholder like Robbie Shields or Michael Fisher in that case.

I just don’t see Havens going to Binghamton again. The skills are already there…he just needs to stay on the field.

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by Steve Schreiber on Feb 15, 2012 9:55 PM EST up reply actions

I dunno

the difference between AA and AAA is pretty small and I’d rather have both Havens and Satin getting regular playing time at 2b.

A deadline has a wonderful way of concentrating the mind.-Professor James Moriarty
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.- Former Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan

by Blame-everyone-else on Feb 16, 2012 11:46 AM EST up reply actions

I sort of agree but at the same time

if Satin’s future role is going to be 25th man/utility guy, it probably makes sense to get him playing time at a lot of different positions. He’s not going to be the team’s starting second baseman. Plus, while the difference between AA and AAA isn’t huge, there are a lot of guys with big league experience in AAA and not so much in AA. I think that’d be beneficial to see how Havens fares against those guys.

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by Steve Schreiber on Feb 16, 2012 12:12 PM EST up reply actions

I picked Lagares

I know his stats are BABIP inflated, but I think he’s still underrated. He improved his BB% for most of last year and the guy just doesn’t strike out a lot. If he can repeat his imporved walks in the higher levels than he is a solid evryday OF who can probably play any of the three spots IMO.

by crazycarLUXC on Feb 14, 2012 2:51 PM EST reply actions

I think Puello is getting overlooked personally.

His ceiling is probably higher then anyone left.

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by Ogre39666 on Feb 14, 2012 3:49 PM EST reply actions

Was between him and Jordanny

gave the edge to Valdespin due to his break out year. How is RH winnings?

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by astromets on Feb 14, 2012 4:11 PM EST up reply actions

Probably because the only thing keeping him from the bigs is health and he plays 2B.

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by Ogre39666 on Feb 14, 2012 4:15 PM EST up reply actions

That is a big thing in my opinion

Considering his health has been a big problem every year and he is getting older

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by astromets on Feb 15, 2012 3:18 PM EST up reply actions

Well look at it this way

some players need to dramatically improve their plate discipline in order to make the big leagues. Others need to dramatically improve their power profile to make the big leagues. Havens has all that, he just needs to stay healthy.

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by Ogre39666 on Feb 15, 2012 3:45 PM EST up reply actions

He still strikesout a lot.

by Evan_S on Feb 15, 2012 10:59 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah I should have said that he "basically" has all that.

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by Ogre39666 on Feb 15, 2012 11:03 PM EST up reply actions

He also walked an 11-12% clip throughout his minor league career

Strikeouts aren’t too much of an issue if you are still getting on base. He won’t be more than a .250-.260 hitter but with his patience and power he’s an above average regular at 2B not dissimilar to Danny Espinosa.

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by piazza62 on Feb 15, 2012 11:18 PM EST up reply actions

His potential ceiling is high but

my issue with him is that it’s still almost all projection. That 18:103 BB:K ratio is really ugly and personally, I want to see better than that. The bump up in power is a nice sign, though. I just can’t vote him over Havens or even Jordany because they’ve both put up better numbers at Double A and are a lot closer to making an impact.

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by Steve Schreiber on Feb 14, 2012 5:15 PM EST up reply actions

I voted Havens are higher floor and putting up decent numbersr at AA even with injury bug

Puello needs to first put up any numbers at any level for me to rank him above the first 5 guys, Havens and Valderspin.

by FrancoTAU on Feb 14, 2012 7:38 PM EST up reply actions

Any numbers?

He had a >100 wRC+ every year but last. And had 45 SB’s in 2010.

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by Ogre39666 on Feb 14, 2012 7:51 PM EST up reply actions

As a RF it's still not very impressive. He had 22 HBP last year which really fueled

his OBP. It seems like he has the HBP “skill” which I can’t decide if its good or bad.

That being said I’m we’re talking about me ranking him at 8 instead of 5 or 6. I like him but i’m just a little weary of a corner OF who is still pretty raw. I like him a whole lot more if he can play CF too.

by FrancoTAU on Feb 14, 2012 8:04 PM EST up reply actions

He's playing CF now.

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by Ogre39666 on Feb 14, 2012 8:48 PM EST up reply actions

Or did last year, rather.

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by Ogre39666 on Feb 14, 2012 8:48 PM EST up reply actions

And will be going forward

With apparently decent defensive prowess, so I’ve heard.

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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 15, 2012 12:52 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

He struggled in A+ ball.

In the minors, it’s about “what have you done for me lately”, especially as a guy climbs up levels. It’s nice that he held his own in Low A but he’s got to do it in High A, then AA and up the ladder. A now 21 year old who struggled and will (likely) be repeating High A ball isn’t the worst thing in the world but it shouldn’t be totally ignored either.

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by Steve Schreiber on Feb 14, 2012 9:32 PM EST up reply actions

I wouldn't say he struggled

He improved in certain areas (power) by sacrificing elsewhere (OBP). I think the drop there is more pronounced because of his K%.

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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 15, 2012 12:54 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Compared to what he did in Savannah

I’d say he struggled. He walked less, struck out more and his batting average suffered. His first half was pretty poor. The power gains are a nice sign but 10-15 homer power with abysmal plate discipline doesn’t cut it in the majors unless you’re Miguel Olivo. His strong second half is another nice sign but I’d prefer to see a larger sample before I push him ahead of guys like Havens and Valdespin who have put up numbers and are closer to the majors.

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by Steve Schreiber on Feb 15, 2012 10:04 AM EST up reply actions

Didn't he do that while also being young for the league?

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by Ogre39666 on Feb 15, 2012 3:45 PM EST up reply actions

Puello turned 20 in April (Wilmer Flores turned 20 in August, too)

which is around two to four years younger than most other Advanced-A hitters/pitchers.

Puello’s 2011 BABIP, while generally highish (.311) was down from his MiLB career BABIP of .353. Given that he’s speedy, and his demonstrated he gap power, it seems to me that he was just plain unlucky in that regard. If you view the average/OBP through the prism of some bad luck, the .259/.313 doesn’t look as bad. It’s not as if he’s a guy that has no clue how to get on base- he had a .375 OBP in A-ball in 2010, and a .360 OBP in Rookie-ball in 2008 and 2009. I’m not sure what is good or bad, in terms of amount of strike outs, but Puello didn’t particularly start striking out in a massive clip in 2011. In 109 A-ball games, he K’ed 82 times. In 117 Advanced-A games, he K’ed 103 times. I think that’s a little high, but it’s not like his 2011 K% is out of whack with his career numbers.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
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3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest | 1st place- 2012 AAOP Contest

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 15, 2012 6:36 PM EST up reply actions