Who Should Be The Mets' 2012 Opening Day Starter?
by Eric Simon on Feb 2, 2012 12:00 PM EST
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PrintAt Tuesday's Thurman Munson Awards Dinner, R.A. Dickey and Daniel Murphy were honored for something, though I'm at a loss as to what that was. Murphy took home the first ever Thurman Rising Star Award, whatever that is. The dinner raised money and awareness for AHRC-New York City, which provides services to people, principally children, with learning and behavioral disabilities.
Buried in the above linked article was some chatter about Johan Santana's recovery from surgery in 2010 and the likelihood that he'll make his fourth Opening Day start for the Mets. The assumption seems to be that if Santana can go, he will go, but one might reasonably argue that Dickey deserves the start instead. Ever humble, Dickey brushed off the suggestion:
"I certainly hope that’s not the case. My first reaction would obviously be that I would be honored to do it, but it would be by default, because Johan is our ace."
Santana hasn't pitched since September 2010, while Dickey has been the Mets' best pitcher each of the last two seasons and has the face that launched 1,000 Photoshops. If Santana is ready to go, who should get the nod?
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Agreed
Proven Opening Day Starter ™
by guidishfish on Feb 2, 2012 12:08 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Got to be Dickey
Sorry Johan, but Dickey has been the man in your absence and should be given the start.
Husker/Giants/Mets fan living behind enemy lines.
If Johan looks locked in for ST, then I can see him as our opening day starter
but Dickey deserves it unless proven otherwise IMO
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Feb 2, 2012 12:31 PM EST reply actions
I'm surprised the poll is as close as it is
I figured Dickey would win by a margin usually seen in North Korean elections.
Mark Cuban for owner! Save us from the Wilpons!
He certainly has a cult of personality
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 2, 2012 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
Johan if he can
Otherwise, it’s gotta be Dickey. Not pelfrey, don’t go find a crappy proven vet, and let David Cone stay retired.
37 - 14 - 41 - 31 - 17 - 42 - SHEA
by piazza62 on Feb 2, 2012 12:38 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Since it doesn't really matter, I went Johan
If both are healthy and they started Dickey over Johan, it would become an overblown NY media thing. And that’s pretty much the last thing I want to deal with on Opening Day.
Well,
if Johan is the Opening Day starter then his ST went much better than I’m thinking it’s going to.
I’m thinking given where his arm stamina/strength and FB velocity was when he was shut down last year doesn’t bode well for having him ready in just 6 weeks once ST begins. Goes w/o saying I’d love to be wrong on that.
I voted Dickey but I can see them giving the nod to Santana if he’s ready to go.
by MetsFan4Decades on Feb 2, 2012 12:42 PM EST reply actions
the question asks "if santana is ready to go"
it has to be johan, mostly for what bieser’s balk said.
I believe in one Dickey, Maker of knuckles and balls
by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on Feb 2, 2012 12:56 PM EST reply actions
If Santana is healthy
He’s the best pitcher on the team. Period. If he’s healthy, he should be the opening day starter. But if you run the scenario a 100 times, most of the outcomes will require Dickey to start on Opening Day. I just don’t see how Santana is 100% by the time the season starts.
You always root for laundry. Of course, you'd like to have good players in that laundry as well.
Not sure about that
Even if Santana is 100% healthy, we don’t know if this “new”, post-surgery Johan Santana is as good as the “old”, pre-surgery Johan Santana. If this “new”, post-surgery Johan Santana is 100% healthy, but only 75% as good as the “old”, pre-surgery Johan Santana, Dickey may well be better.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
Ryder or Riot #WWWYKI
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest | 1st place- 2012 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 2, 2012 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
I tend to disagree
And then we’d have to get into the messy calculations of assuming what a 75% Santana would equal and how that measures up to 100% of Dickey (insert joke here). I’m pretty sure his FB isn’t what it used to be, but if he can generate the same drop off in velocity between his change up and fastball, kind of how Pedro was able to do as he tailed off, you’re still looking at a pitcher that can miss a lot of bats. In the end, though, 75% of Santana still puts us way ahead of the game from where the rotation was last year.
You always root for laundry. Of course, you'd like to have good players in that laundry as well.
The Pedro comp is a good point
But, will he 05 Pedro, who was great, 06 Pedro, who was good, or 08 Pedro. I remain optimistic but the last choice is a very real possibility.
37 - 14 - 41 - 31 - 17 - 42 - SHEA
by piazza62 on Feb 2, 2012 1:22 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'd definitley rather have a diminshed Santana than, say, a Gee, or a Schwinden, definitley
His peripherals were dropping steadily before his surgery, and given the stark difference in ability the other guys who have had anterior capsule surgery, I am not as optimistic as you are. He had one of the best change-ups in the Majors, so maxing out on his fastball at, say, 90 instead of 93 might not make all that much of a difference because he throws the change so well, but…
I personally don’t think that he’s going to give us more than 50 innings or so, but if he does, I’m not expecting them to be very good.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
Ryder or Riot #WWWYKI
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest | 1st place- 2012 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 2, 2012 1:32 PM EST up reply actions
He very may not give us more than that
I’d be sad to see it happen, but not really shocked in the least. If we get 150 innings from him, I think they’ll be good innings, if average only by his standards. He’s still a better pitcher than the others who suffered this injury/surgery, so I still hold out hope he’ll be more than they were on their return.
You always root for laundry. Of course, you'd like to have good players in that laundry as well.
He very well*
You always root for laundry. Of course, you'd like to have good players in that laundry as well.
50 innings? Wow.
You could be right, but if he does give us innings, I do expect them to be good. His velocity may not be anywhere near where it was, but what about Jamie Moyer? He 49 years old and has a fastball that sits at 80 MPH, but he’s survived for centuries by being a lefty with a plus change. John Franco is another example, and Johan is far, far, far and away the superior to these two, and these guys were good.
37 - 14 - 41 - 31 - 17 - 42 - SHEA
I agree that Johan probably won't be as good as Dickey
But I’m optimistic that he can be above average. Not to be discounted is the effectiveness of a great circle change at any speed. Also, at the risk of sounding unscientific, Santana has remarkable pitching acumen, which I think will help.
by TheBigStapler on Feb 2, 2012 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
GOtta be Dickey
If you let him start Game 1 then you screw up the batters timing for game 2 when Santana takes the mound. Helps him out in the process
Wasn't it proven that that isn't a real thing?
The whole “knuckleball messes up batters for the next game” theory?
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
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by Steve Schreiber on Feb 2, 2012 1:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
If you can find an article about that, I'd be curious to read it
I’ve always suspected it was kind of bullshit too but I’m not a baseball player and can at least accept the plausibility of the theory.
by TheBigStapler on Feb 2, 2012 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
the source
I always suspected it was bullshit given that it came from the worst manager in Mets history, but there is the whole blind squirrel theory too..
I always kind of want Parnell to be the first reliever on call for Dickey though. Here’s a floating 65mph knuckler…and now try to hit 100mph heat.
-Ceetar, the Optimistic Mets Fan
I agree with you about Parnell following Dickey.
As far as knucleballers throwing off the opposing lineup for subsequent games, my guess is that it would be much less of an effect from Opening Day to the second game. Isn’t there usually a day off between them?
Batters have attested that it does indeed screw up their timing
Dick Allen, Pete Rose, Ralph Kiner, Ernie Banks…
In action, when we faced the Cardinals last season during one series, I recall they faced Dickey in the second game, and Tony LaRussa didn’t play Pujols that day because he didn’t want his timing to be thrown off by facing the knuckleball.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
Ryder or Riot #WWWYKI
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest | 1st place- 2012 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 2, 2012 3:19 PM EST up reply actions
I don't like the idea, with regard to my enjoyment of the team, of assuming the worst from Santana
Johan kicked serious ass when he pitched. There’s a very good chance he’ll be worn out but he’s earned his title as ace. Should Dickey dethrone him, I will praise our new king, but judgment cannot be had until pitches are thrown.
I don’t believe being Opening Day Starter™ is the same thing as being the best pitcher. ODS is about narrative and identity to me. Dickey will have his day but, for now, the Johan era is not officially ended.
by TheBigStapler on Feb 2, 2012 1:27 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Dickey
Pelfrey is garbage, Neise, Young and Santana are unknown
ESPN, Mike Francesa, NY Post, NY Daily News, Fox Sports = Propaganda
Blue and Orange, Green and White, Red and Black
Twitter: @BlueChill1123
I voted for Dickey because I'm carefully keeping low expectations for Santana
But if he has a good showing in ST, Santana it is.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf. "
– Tug McGraw when asked about his preference for grass or astroturf
I voted for Dickey
mainly because Johan will probably not be ready to start the season.
The 2011 Mets Offseason: Non-tendered Wayne Hagin, to the delight of Mets fan's ears.
I am shocked by the results
It is unlikely that Johan is ready for spring training, and even if he is it seems likely he would be comparable to Wang last season. Santana is such a wild card this year, as he could make almost 0 appearance, that I am expecting nothing more than replacement level from him.
Wang last year was pretty much what Wang has always been.
Same K/BB ratio, same grounder-heavy results. A few more homers from rustiness, and more control/less power from aging, but the peripherals, ERA, and xFIP were all in line. A prime-Santana-plus-age-and-some-rust is what we’re getting, that won’t be that bad at all.
Dickey is now the face of the starting rotation, if not the franchise...
Santana is a wildcard who may or may not be anything close to what he was, and if he is, he’ll be on his way out of town with the current ownership, and if he isn’t, he won’t be as good as Dickey. I don’t expect him to be ready anyways, but even if he is, I hold little hope that he’ll be dominating to start off.
Dickey Opening Day starter and Santana Home Opener starter.
That way Dickey gets rewarded based on merit and we can welcome Santana back appropriately.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place
Assuming of course that Opening Day will be a road game.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place
Opening Day is home against Atlanta
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only BLUE WALLS.
The 2012 Mets: Fortune cookie says come back in 2015
Even if Santana's healthy,
I’d still go with DIckey. I don’t trust Santana to give us a lot of innings this year; I think he’ll have to be handled with kid gloves.
"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."
by BobbyV_Incognito on Feb 2, 2012 4:28 PM EST reply actions
Absolutely Santana
He’s still the nominal ace of the staff and is being paid like a superstar. Not allowing him to pitch opening day would be a serious insult to his ego. Not worth doing.
That’s assuming he is willing and able to pitch of course.
He'll be willing, whether he's able or not, and screw how much he's being paid; he's a sunk cost.
Dickey should’ve been ODS last season, and he should be again this season. Aside from being our best starter, he’s capable of handling the biggest innings load, which you want from the guy who’s likely to get the most starts. And as for a media shitstorm, if anyone can zen his way through that and maintain perspective, it’s R.A.
i think its going to come down to how he pitches in spring training
if he has decent control, and doesn’t get wholly lit up, it’ll probably go to him. On the other hand, if he’s not looking great or has a lot of difficulty getting the ball over the plate, they may (i hope) give it to RA to take the pressure off of Johan.
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Feb 3, 2012 2:40 AM EST up reply actions
It's okay if Santana isn't ready...
Most people think that it wouldn’t be Santana. However, you don’t have much to worry about either, because the Braves’ Tim Hudson, scheduled as the Opening Day Starter, will probably start the season on the DL. We’ll probably have Tommy Hanson or Brandon Beachy start.
"Tim Tebow isn't a quarterback, he's a tight end lining up in the wildcat." -Daniel Tosh
dickey
I rather ease santana in the early part of the season. I am actually very confident in whoever dickey pithes against and i want to give him the max # of starts.
by jhMLB on Feb 2, 2012 10:45 PM EST via mobile reply actions
who is Joeham Santa Anna?
Is he any good? Is he a lefty? Why should he start over god?
2012 New York Mets, World Series Champions!
Dillon Gee
I hope this kid can win some games,fences in,Jose out,and a high e.r.a.but I am really hopefull he can be 2013 opening day starter.
Uh, good luck with that one
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
Ryder or Riot #WWWYKI
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest | 1st place- 2012 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 3, 2012 10:10 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
if he is our 2013 opening day starter
I do not want to watch that season. ‘When pigs fly’ comes to mind.
2012 New York Mets, World Series Champions!
dear god, you're either extremely optimistic about Gee
or horrendously pessimistic about the state of the Mets in general.
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Feb 3, 2012 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
2013 Opening Day starter for the Buffalo Bisons?
Sure, that sounds about right.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.
by Steve Schreiber on Feb 3, 2012 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
Are you related to him or something?
Gee is a crappy number 5 starter and nothing more,
by graves9 on Feb 4, 2012 8:31 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
i voted Dickey for opening day
but that’s just because I think he should pitch all the games
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
5 Dickey starts every week would be too much awesome to handle.
Jets, Cowboys, Mets, Islanders, Bulls & Clippers
Dickey either way
Barring Santana being miraculous in SP – opening day in cold weather and a hyped situation is not where I want to see him start his first game.
I concur with this.
Dickey has earned the OD start, and I think it behoves the team to treat Johans shoulder with kid gloves and not put undue expections on him.
Look at it this way...
R.A. Dickey 2010-11
3.08 ERA, 124 ERA+, 1.204 WHIP, 0.7 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 8.2 bWAR
Tim Lincecum 2010-11
3.08 ERA, 121 ERA+, 1.239 WHIP, 0.7 HR/9, 3.4 BB/9, 8.0 bWAR
Tim Lincecum just signed a 2yr/$40mm deal with the Giants, Dickey makes a fraction, but according to these relevant and totally not cherry-picked stats, is just as good as Lincecum. Therefore, Dickey shouldn’t just be the opening day starter for the Mets, but every other team in baseball.
37 - 14 - 41 - 31 - 17 - 42 - SHEA
by piazza62 on Feb 4, 2012 9:08 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
thats kind of awesome
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Feb 4, 2012 9:39 PM EST up reply actions
Aaaaand greened.
"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."
by BobbyV_Incognito on Feb 5, 2012 1:53 AM EST up reply actions
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