BA Top 100 Prospects

Only two Mets make the cut, BA seems a bit more bearish on the Mets than most others.

Wheeler checks in at #35, with Harvey in at #54.

What irks me is the omission of Familia, especially when someone like Addison Reed cracks the list at #66. (Sixty Six!)

Reed is a very good relief prospect, but c'mon, man. Familia would be a very good relief prospect too if he weren't still a starter. The fact that he has at least a modest chance of being a good one at that, should definitely put him over someone like Reed, in my humble and honest opinion.

What do you guys think?

3 months ago Ambient 11 comments 1 recs |

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+1 on Reed

Even mid to back of the rotation guys are more valuable than bullpen arms. Familia may end up a reliever in the long run, but if Addison Reed fails at that role, what does he fall back on? I’ve come to prefer KG’s list on BP over BA.

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by piazza62 on Feb 21, 2012 6:35 PM EST reply actions

idk

as much as i lobby for familia in the top 100 two factors make the reed pick justifiable to me:

1) His stuff/stats suggest a future homegrown closer which, while perhaps not incrementally much more valuable than any other late reliever, clearly holds a lot of value when you consider what closers make on the open market.

2) he’s major league ready right now and figures to reach his ceiling at some point in 2012, perhaps even by may. yes familia has the ceiling as a good starter but many people don’t buy that so when dealing with these rankings that’s pretty much out. and while familia could very easily profile as a dominant late-inning reliever — much like reed — as his ‘floor’, that’s not really his floor now is it? until familia bridges that gap from double-A to the majors — whether as a starter or reliever — his true floor is a guy who flames out due to injury — or ineffectiveness — which as we’ve seen too often can happen really easily.

if 100% represents a player’s ceiling, it’s quite important to me — and clearly very much so for BA — that reed is already probably around 85% while familia is still somewhere in the 50-60% range.

also, the difference between 30-40 spots on these lists isn’t nearly as large as it seems so again, i won’t lose sleep over either ranking.

by Rob Castellano on Feb 22, 2012 11:43 AM EST up reply actions

The assumed gap

Is probably much larger than 40. Only one out of eight BA writers had Familia cracking their top 100, and only three had him in the top 150.

Wouldn’t Reed have the same floor as a guy who could flame out due to injury or ineffectiveness? Isn’t that true of all pitching prospects? And how does 85% of a reliever’s ceiling compare to 55% of a starter’s ceiling?

Reed is also nearly a full year older, and has only 28 2/3 innings logged above AA. I don’t quite consider that enough to “bridge the gap.” While I don’t doubt that Reed will be an effective pitcher in a MLB bullpen this year, I feel Familia could be just as successful in the same role this year.

by Ambient on Feb 22, 2012 1:15 PM EST up reply actions

you're probably right

but that slight difference that makes you say reed ‘will’ versus familia ‘could’ makes all the difference in these rankings. that difference being the fact that reed dominated triple-a and touched the majors last season, removing a good deal of doubt from the equation — as much as any young pitcher can — while familia only just reached double-a.

one more thing that everyone seems to be glossing over is the fact that familia hit the DL late last season with a weird shoulder issue. it sounded mostly innocuous afterwards and I personally am not that worried about it, but that’s easily something an evaluator could hold against him in such rankings, especially when the deciding factor in this particular discussion is the difference in inherent risk remaining between the two pitchers.

by Rob Castellano on Feb 22, 2012 2:27 PM EST up reply actions

The will vs could

Is more a byproduct of the fact that Reed likely will start the season in the MLB pen, where as Familia almost certainly will not.

by Ambient on Feb 22, 2012 2:38 PM EST up reply actions

and that matters when ranking these guys

because that decision isn’t being made by their parent organization willy-nilly (unless we’re discussion jenrry mejia)

by Rob Castellano on Feb 24, 2012 1:49 PM EST up reply actions

Baseball America, maybe back in the day

they were good in terms of overall prospect rankings and summaries and all of that, but they certainly aren’t anymore. I can’t blame them for not being able to cover the specificity that team specific scouters can (Toby Hyde, for example), or guys like John Sickels, but BA isn’t helping their cause out, either.

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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 21, 2012 6:56 PM EST reply actions

Reminds me of Buck and McCarver and to a lesser extent the ESPN Sunday night crew.

Parachute in, learn lines about the team that someone else has written for them then jet out.

Not experts on any team or player but acting as if they are.

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by ScottfromPeekskill on Feb 21, 2012 7:05 PM EST up reply actions

Awesome comp!

Poor Joe Buck just can’t get a break. And he doesn’t deserve one.

Astro Traveler

by BlackOps on Feb 21, 2012 9:53 PM EST up reply actions

I believe Keith Law left Familia off his list as well.

I’ve only seen him on Goldstein’s list.

by EricAColucci on Feb 21, 2012 10:06 PM EST up reply actions

Familia

Familia was a close miss on Law´s list and was an HM who was in the 100-110 range. Familia apparently made 3 out of 8 lists from BA writers who were the base for their top 100.

In any case, BA rated the Mets farm system as the worst in Baseball prior to 2010. Since then, Ike Davis, Jon Niese, Ruben Tejada, Lucas Duda, Dillon Gee, Bobby Parnell and Josh Thole have graduated while – from that group back then – Jenry Mejia, Wilmer Flores, Reese Havens, Jeurys Familia and Kirk Nieuwenhuis made the top 10 BA list of this winter.

The Mets probably do have several candidates for a top 101 to 200 but just lack elite prospects for the top 25 range that usually lead to systems being ranked high by BA & Co.

Of course, the Nationals were rated as the top system prior to the Gio G trade. Keith Law rated that system as the 21st best after the deal. All in all, the quality of systems seems a lot closer than in recent years. And except for a couple of barren systems like the White Sox or Brewers, the difference is generally very close.

by Doob on Feb 22, 2012 5:22 AM EST up reply actions