Terry Collins Wants The Mets To Lead The League In Sacrifice Bunts For Some Reason
"The curious task of sabermetrics is to demonstrate to managers how little they really know about the runs they imagine they can create"
Terry Collins has had a lot to say this first week of spring training, with Adam Rubin passing along this nugget from Tuesday:
The focus in spring training will be on better execution, such as leading the league in sacrifice bunting by 10 rather than simply being even with the league leaders.
In other words, Collins wants to give away more free outs than any other team in the league. When he said this, a great disturbance was felt on Amazin' Avenue, as if millions of readers cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced. It induces flashbacks to the hyper-interventionist Jerry Manuel days of bunting with the second batter of the game and the pinch bunter "innovation". Wanting to increase sacrifice bunt success rate is one thing -- it's preferable to striking out or popping up a bunt attempt -- but planning to get down more bunts than any other team just isn't smart baseball. The Mets had a below average 90 sacrifice bunt attempts last season. The Marlins led the league with 125. Does this mean the Mets will be pushing ~135 attempts in 2012? Yikes.
While the evils of the overused sacrifice bunt are well documented, it is a smart play under some circumstances. Think when pitchers are batting and in various late-and-close scenarios. However, planning to lead the league in sacrifice bunts as if they are an incontrovertible good like home runs or triples is planning to stifle a lineup's chance to score. If a periodic glass of red wine is good for the heart, that doesn't mean it's wise to up intake to four bottles per day.
There is a chance that this is more manager-speak than concrete declaration. Collins has to pass the time with reporters somehow and it's probable that he doesn't mean everything he says. Talk of "execution" is a staple of spring training rhetoric, which is fine, although it's preferable that it not be accompanied by a specific number of desired sacrifice bunts. So Collins receives the benefit of the doubt for now, but expect a torrent of cranky discussion if this February throwaway line transforms into April-September policy.
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Oh............
shit……….
Yogi on the 1969 NY Mets....." overwhelming underdogs "
"The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails." —William Arthur Ward
Okay
The team was abysmal at getting bunts down last year, so I could totally believe their were like 45 failed sacs by pitchers in there somewhere. That is what I am going to continue to believe he meant.
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by Jeffrey Paternostro on Feb 23, 2012 9:53 AM EST reply actions
This.
That’s the impression I got listening to that interview with TC.
Not necessarily that they were going to be doing a ton of bunting. More along the lines that when the situation called for a sac bunt – say with a pitcher up at bat – he wanted 100% success on execution. Therefore we would then lead the league in sac bunts b/c all pitchers are asked to bunt on a regular basis.
by MetsFan4Decades on Feb 23, 2012 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
That makes sense
Our pitchers were terrible at laying down a bunt and getting a runner over. They also sported one of the worst batting averages collectively as a group. Not expecting Dontrelle Willis sluggage from our pitchers, but making solid contact and laying down a bunt properly should be expected.
You always root for laundry. Of course, you'd like to have good players in that laundry as well.
If August and September were any indication...
Be afraid… be very afraid. I remember some truly awful bunt calls down the stretch.
Oh pissing blimey there's jam coming out of the walls!
This was a particularly egregious example.
In the bottom of the ninth, the Mets put up a threat when Willie Harris doubled over Bruce’s head, and Wright took first after sustaining a scary-looking hit-by-pitch. (“Shades of Matt Cain,” as Gary Cohen.) Of course, this was the time for BUNTZ! With your #5 hitter! Even when he’s ahead in the count 2-0!. Nick Evans laid down a perfect bunt toward third, so perfect that the Reds easily got the force at third. Josh Thole proceeded to bounce into a double play, and that’s all she wrote.
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2011/9/26/2451594/reds-6-mets-5-living-in-oblivion
Oh pissing blimey there's jam coming out of the walls!
Not in the same ballpark as when Jerry had not one
but two different batters bunt against Felipe Lopez and Joe Mather.
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by Steve Schreiber on Feb 23, 2012 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
I hate everyone.
Now, kids, being eaten by a crocodile is just like going to sleep; in giant blender.
So does Jerry
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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 23, 2012 9:24 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, those were the days.
How did we win that game again? Didn’t the Cardinals just give it to us?
"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."
by BobbyV_Incognito on Feb 23, 2012 10:41 PM EST up reply actions
But
With the blast shield down, Terry Collins can’t even see! How is he supposed to bunt?
www.haikuboy.com
by murdertron3000 on Feb 23, 2012 10:36 AM EST reply actions
Hate the bunts (except in some circumstances)
Hate the bunts
"Tom Coughlin is hugging Flavor Flav!" -- Rich Eisen, Superbowl postgame
good gods
I guess this organization learned nothing from Manuel
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
I almost threw up my breakfast when I read this
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Feb 23, 2012 10:40 AM EST reply actions 3 recs
It's about sacrifice, man.
Maybe he was just talking about Lent, and how he gave up bundt cake until Easter.
"You don't know when to keep your mouth shut, do you, Saxxy Boy?"
by Five-Tool Tool on Feb 23, 2012 10:40 AM EST reply actions
It's karmic
Lose now, so that in the afterlife, we shall be compensated with a handful of victories. It’s all for the greater good.
RIP Gary Edmund Carter (1954 - 2012)
For the greater good.
Now, kids, being eaten by a crocodile is just like going to sleep; in giant blender.
Terry, don't let the door hit your ass on the way out
__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
I can't figure TC out
If you look at this chart from BtBS, it looks like Collins doesn’t actually do the sacbuntz that often. His practice does not match his rhetoric. Maybe this is all just talk to get a certain mentality out of his players. Yet, he seems like a straightforward guy. Odd.
by TheBigStapler on Feb 23, 2012 10:45 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
I fear that this particular contingent is following a set of flawed statistics
Everyone wants in on the sabermetric discussion. It’s “cool” now, as is the perception. Following in Sandy’s footsteps before immediately taking a sharp left turn, Terry combines old philosophies (his own) with new ones, and decides to improve the team’s BntEff, XBnt and FIBnt stats* (after learning that the Bnt+ stat wasn’t quite up to par). He defers all the technical chart work, analysis and tabulation of data over to an unnamed source, and then gets to experiment with his hokey new toys. Rumor has it that he has the physics of the bunt down – the only problem is that they’re not practical at all. (i.e. the batter has to first find out where the ball will go over home plate, then must patiently and consciously tap the ball, so as to place it on the right trajectory and path speed, almost like in billiards.)
* I have no idea how the heck they come up with these stats, but I’m sure SSS is sometimes involved.
RIP Gary Edmund Carter (1954 - 2012)
if this is only about pitchers i agree with terry
last year our pitchers were terrible with sac bunting
"Its only a game, but it helps teach you about life"
The bunt is not a bad play
You guys should read The Book.
In short, judging by win expectancy tables ignores the most important factors in whether one should bunt or not, and greatly underestimates the value of the bunt. In good part, this is becuase this approach assumes a “successful sacrifice” as an outcome, when in fact there are frequently more favorable outcomes to a sacrifice bunt attempt (including singles as well as RBOE).
The most important factors that are frequently ignored are:
1. How good a bunter is the player?
2. How good is the defense and how are they actually positioned?
3. Game Theory: even a bunt that is fractionally “bad” according to tables can be good because it forces the defense to think about defending bunts, and thus improves your odds later when swinging away.
On the last point, if putting the bunt in the minds of your opponents is so important that it is sometimes worth fractionally giving up runs or wins, how much better is it then if you can put this in the mind of your opponent without any such cost? Such as, for example, by making lots of noise in Spring Training about how much you love to bunt and want to lead the league.
by acerimusdux on Feb 23, 2012 10:55 AM EST reply actions 4 recs
Agreed.
Leading the league in sac bunts could be a strong sign that the #8 hitter (rubes?) is getting on base at a fantastic clip, in which case, by all means, lets lead the league in sacrifice bunts.
I also like to think that TC is tweaking the “OMG BUNTZ IS BAD” reactionaries, just a bit. Probably not, but it’s makes me giggle to think TC is a bit of a internet troller. :)
by SoCal Metfan on Feb 23, 2012 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
That's the organizational MO
The bunts were awful last year and I don’t fault him for wanting them to improve. I bet he got the OK from Sandy to piss off all of the anti-Jerryball people on the internet, if the Twitter account is any precedent.
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Keith = HoF
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Yes, but...
Leading the league in “sacrifice bunts” really shouldn’t be the goal either. Part of the point with good bunting is that first of all you are trying to reach base. The sacrifice is OK as a fallback, and from the players point of view, it at least shows you executed the bunt properly (as opposed to popping out, or missing the ball and ending up with a strikeout).
But there’s also not really anything wrong in leading the league in sacrifice bunts. And I suppose for weak hitting pitchers (which we seem to have plenty of), being able to get the sacrifice maybe should be a goal in itself.
by acerimusdux on Feb 23, 2012 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I love bunts, myself
They are like tiny little cute hits. Baby hits. And no one gets hurt.
Being born in New York and rooting for the Islanders, Jets, and Mets. Yeah, I know.
Twitter: cmauceri524
by CharlieIsles on Feb 23, 2012 11:09 AM EST reply actions 4 recs
nubbies
that cheap little single you score while playing whiffle ball. Aka buntz
I hate Philadelphia so much.
by the caveman on Feb 23, 2012 2:19 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
It is the one professional sports action that
I might have .001% chance of doing myself, in a real game. And I don’t want to hear that it’s a not dangerous play; when you bunt, you aren’t only sacrificing for the team, but you are sacrificing all ten fingers at the same time!
Holy crap, the bunt is, without a doubt, THE most dangerous, exciting play in all of sports, amirite?*
(*Note: I might not be right.)
Being born in New York and rooting for the Islanders, Jets, and Mets. Yeah, I know.
Twitter: cmauceri524
by CharlieIsles on Feb 23, 2012 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
Not only fingers
but face, nuts etc etc
by SFloridaMetsFan on Feb 23, 2012 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
Josay RayAss won a batting title with a bunt
just sayin’
One day, this team is going to kill me.
by fxcarden on Feb 23, 2012 11:18 AM EST reply actions 3 recs
You thought Jerryball was bad
Now, let me introducing Terryball. Bigger and Badder than ever before.
Down 2 in the bottom of the ninth?
Lets Bring in Willie Harris!
by ShaqKazaam on Feb 23, 2012 12:01 PM EST via mobile reply actions
So about that whole "are the Mets saber" thing...
Save Jenrry Mejia!
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One of my biggest issues with the Mets last season with their lack of execution, especially when it comes to sacrifice bunting. As a National League team, the inability to bunt is embarassing. I think TC’s “lead the league leader by at least 10” is a little bit extreme, but i don’t see a problem with trying to improve the team’s fundamentals.
This is how I'm choosing to look at it
fingers crossed. Terry is an average MLB manager. I really hope he is not so stupid that he’s going to play the whole season bunting like he did when he went crazy at the end of last season (with Beltran and KRod traded, Murph gone, morale down and Jose no longer in FIREBALL! mode). I think/hope he is mainly just telling the pitchers to stop failing so awesomely with the bat.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf. "
– Tug McGraw when asked about his preference for grass or astroturf
by Terry_is_God on Feb 23, 2012 5:56 PM EST up reply actions
...after looking at Michkin's stats below,
I see he is telling ALL of the bastards to stop failing so awesomely at bunting!
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf. "
– Tug McGraw when asked about his preference for grass or astroturf
by Terry_is_God on Feb 23, 2012 5:59 PM EST up reply actions
Ewwww
as a fan of a team that Clint Hurdle manages, I express my sympathies and promise I can empathize.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 23, 2012 12:34 PM EST reply actions
More bunts?!?!
Boooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!! Booooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!
Terry needs to learn how to use sarcasm font so we can all stop having strokes.
Husker/Giants/Mets fan living behind enemy lines.
First BBVer to get Noted
About stats and execution
BR doesn’t count bunt attempts early in the count. We don’t have stats for those times when the pitcher tried 3 times to bunt and failed every time.
Att — Sacrifice Bunts Attempted
Only includes unsuccessful bunts made and bunt strikeouts.
Failing to bunt early in the count and then swinging away later are not included.
Mets Pitchers = 37/44 = 84%
Mets Position = 28/46 = 61%
The 5 SP are within the top 6 in attempts, no surprise there. The position players who attempted the bunt the most:
Pagan 4/9
Reyes 2/5
Tejada 4/5
Pridie 3/4
Thole 1/4
Turner 2/4
Both Pagan and Reyes are fast and proficient bunters, to a lesser degree Tejada and Pridie too, so they can attempt to bunt for a hit, disrupt the defense and do some game theory (they fill the requirements listed by The Book). Turner and Thole are not that great hitters, so depending on the situation, it’s not outrageous that they bunted (and they only tried 4 times each). I’ll try to compile the non-pitchers bunt attempts by NL teams later, but if they keep up last year’s pattern, it’ll be much better than the Jerryball era.
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The Unwritten Rules of AA
Besides all the talk, the Mets position players actually bunt less than NL average

44 attempts when the NL average was 48.6. I doubt Collins is thinking “we should bunt 4.6 more in 2012”.
The success rate though was 59% (67% average). Though we are talking about a difference of 3 bunts, compared to average success. Pagan and Reyes had the most bunt attempts (14 total), with low success (40ish%). Yeah, SM Sandy and the new market inefficiency, selling players who bunt too much for low % !!!

The pitching staff was 3rd best (in bunting lol), with 85% success rate (79% average), even though I facepalm when I watch Pelf trying to lay down a sac bunt.
Note: I really need real baseball to start soon, it’s bad enough to be dissecting bunt numbers when there is nothing else to talk about.
In lobby for: Jaime Cevallos, Zack Lutz, orange unis and Rickroll as the 7th inning song.
The Unwritten Rules of AA
An open letter to TC
Dear Terry,
You started off last year looking like hell. You made countless bad move after bad move – PINCH HITTING HU FFS – that directly led to numerous losses. You broke out of that nonsense in the middle of the year and stopped making bad processes for a while, but you got back to it in the end of the year. The Mets are going to be facing enough hurdles without you screwing around. Sit back, shut up and stop trying to reinvent the wheel.
The artful muppet formerly known as KrmtDfrog.
Please read my sardonic wit and over-blown sense of self over at http://www.headkicklegend.com
"What if Lin was a Water Polo star?"
"I would dress as a seahorse and let him ride me until his thighs are bleeding" - nywins46
by Cory Braiterman on Feb 23, 2012 1:30 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Not that it would ever be an acceptable idea to pinch hit him,
But didn’t Hu have a game-winning sac fly in Washington?
"If I had one word to describe it, I'd say it was gangsta." -Jerry Manuel
Follow me on Twitter: @KovalRise
Dickey be Praised!
tied the game
9th C Hu hit sacrifice fly to right, J Bay scored, I Davis to third, W Harris to second.
so much fail in that line
The artful muppet formerly known as KrmtDfrog.
Please read my sardonic wit and over-blown sense of self over at http://www.headkicklegend.com
"What if Lin was a Water Polo star?"
"I would dress as a seahorse and let him ride me until his thighs are bleeding" - nywins46
by Cory Braiterman on Feb 23, 2012 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
Oh yeah,
Now I remember. Murph won that one for us…after that horrible call.
"If I had one word to describe it, I'd say it was gangsta." -Jerry Manuel
Follow me on Twitter: @KovalRise
Dickey be Praised!
In other news
Terry Collins announced that this year, he wants the Mets to have as few outs as possible to work with.
"I only wanted a few things out of life -- a wife, children, to play baseball and to hunt deer." - Turk Wendell
if this means having pitchers bunt better (our pitchers have been egregiously bad at this in years past)
then i’m not that worried, since its a valid point. If we see the 2-5 hitters regularly bunting, then I"ll be a bit more concerned.
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Feb 23, 2012 1:37 PM EST reply actions
Im so pissed that I cant even type correctly.
I think it's fine.
by NetsMets4Life on Feb 23, 2012 2:05 PM EST up reply actions
In other news, Sandy is tending worldwide.

I think it's fine.
by NetsMets4Life on Feb 23, 2012 2:06 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
he tends to trend
2012 New York Mets, World Series Champions!
lol at this
great disturbance was felt on Amazin’ Avenue, as if millions of readers cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced.
millions = hundred(s)
2012 New York Mets, World Series Champions!
I have nothing to say

traveling photoshooper.
i hate shane victorino more than anyone else.
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by sparbz on Feb 23, 2012 3:20 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
scary maybe Jerrible
rec’d
I hate Philadelphia so much.
by the caveman on Feb 23, 2012 4:56 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Loathsome
Loathsome
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf. "
– Tug McGraw when asked about his preference for grass or astroturf
by Terry_is_God on Feb 23, 2012 6:03 PM EST up reply actions
Wow, having managers in baseball is getting old.
Darrelle Revis once won a game of Connect Four in three moves.
Suggesting a move to head coaches in baseball?
That would be more fun, but primarily because of this:

RIP Gary Edmund Carter (1954 - 2012)
I like bundt cakes
they are RINGZ shaped
"..."
by Thaddeus Ballpheasant on Feb 24, 2012 6:02 AM EST reply actions
If Terry ever asks
Ike Davis or Lucas Duda or David Wright to bunt, he should be fired that instant.
The 2011 Mets Offseason: Non-tendered Wayne Hagin, to the delight of Mets fan's ears.
by aparkermarshall on Feb 24, 2012 6:57 AM EST reply actions
Lucas Duda did bunt once in 2011
It was the bunt of the year.
__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
Based on the 2011 numbers, there is no need to worry too much.
Mets position players attempted to bunt less than league average. They also decreased bunting attempts compared to the Jerryball era. 69 and 55 bunting attempts by position players in 2009/10, while only 46 in 2011.
The roster composition matters since Castillo was one of the main culprits during 2009/10. However, players like Pagan also decreased their bunting attempts (per PA). For 2012, the roster has less players who typically bunted in previous years (Pagan, Reyes, Pridie).
Alternative, conspiracy/powerplay theory:
SM Sandy: Look TC, you need to reduce the bunting attempts even more in 2012. The game currency is outs and …
Terry Howe: Are you really trying to teach me how to manage?
SM Sandy: When you bunt, you’re just giving away free outs. Sure there are situations when it’s ok to bunt with position players, depending on defense positioning, ….
Terry Howe: You know what, I know how to Play the Game the Right Way™.
Terry Howe to the press: This year, we’ll lead the league in bunting!
SM Sandy in the shadows: Goodbye 2013 option!
In lobby for: Jaime Cevallos, Zack Lutz, orange unis and Rickroll as the 7th inning song.
The Unwritten Rules of AA
I get it
To counteract moving the fences in. A kinda zen/balance thing.
I’d rather lead the league in walks, strikeouts, gidp and 3 run homers.
i wonder where we rank in GIDP but am too lazy to look it up
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Feb 24, 2012 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
17th w/112
Cards were first, with 169 (or last, I guess). Didn’t prevent them winning a title. Cards were 3rd in SH. LaRussa likes to be active, I guess. Still, they had a good offense.
GIDP ranks were Cards 1st (that’s odd), Yanks 3rd, Tigers 4th, Red Sox 5th, Rangers 6th. The best hitting teams. Runs scored ranks: 1. Red Sox, 2-Yanks, 3-Rangers, 4-Tigers, 5-Cards. So top 5 in runs scored were among tp 6 in gidp.
Red Sox were 5th in gidp and last in sh. They scored the most runs.
The sabermetrics community should develop a stats correlation generator, based on historical and theoretical data
It could actually lead to some real changes in determining how a team ought to be managed, beyond the plausibilities raised by “The Book”. Of course, this must take the strengths/weaknesses of the team into account, as well as signify which intangible changes are needed, with a list of players (on the market) who might be up to task.
This process can be facilitated by the rise of quantum computers, which is a really cool topic to explore
RIP Gary Edmund Carter (1954 - 2012)
Me thinks the one thing that connects all those different categories is men on base.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place
Indeed
But the Red Sox were last in sacrifice hits and first in runs. They clearly eschewed it, double plays be damned. The Cards scored runs, hit into double plays and also had a lot of sacrifice hits. Like I said, I think Larussa is more an interventionist manager, while the Red Sox take their cue from Bill James/Theo. But yes, you’re right of course, the general concept is you get a lot of guys on base you’ll score runs, hit into double plays, and have the opportunity at least for more SH.

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