New York Mets Hitters: Composite Projections

It's not a guarantee that putting all the projections into a bag and shaking them up produces the best results. Aggregated poor inputs are still poor inputs.

But when you're using the best projections systems in the game, it does make sense to take a composite view. After all, the 'consensus' or 'composite' projections usually place highly in Tom Tango's 'Forecaster Challenge' competitions each year. The consensus even won the whole thing last year.

So let's see what the consensus has to say about the Mets' position players this year.

NAME AGE G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Bay, Jason 33 116 438 64 110 20 3 16 59 59 116 10 1 .250 .342 .416
Davis, Ike 25 109 459 66 123 28 2 20 72 60 117 2 1 .268 .351 .466
Wright, David 29 135 525 82 142 32 2 21 79 67 130 18 6 .271 .352 .457
Duda, Lucas 26 127 448 60 121 30 3 16 68 51 97 1 1 .270 .350 .461
Murphy, Daniel 27 109 405 53 119 29 3 8 50 29 51 5 3 .295 .343 .437
Tejada, Ruben 22 137 447 49 118 22 2 2 33 41 70 7 3 .264 .335 .332
Thole, Josh 25 118 367 36 101 19 1 4 32 39 49 1 1 .275 .347 .363
Torres, Andres 34 121 415 62 99 27 5 9 50 46 113 20 6 .239 .319 .397
Hairston, Scott 32 83 220 30 53 12 1 10 33 18 51 4 1 .241 .306 .435
Johnson, Rob 29 68 184 18 38 10 1 2 16 19 50 2 1 .209 .290 .315
Loewen, Adam 28 34 149 15 33 7 1 3 15 13 44 2 1 .222 .295 .341
Nickeas, Mike 29 44 142 12 30 6 2 11 13 29 1 .214 .287 .292
Turner, Justin 27 106 341 40 91 21 1 4 32 27 44 5 2 .267 .331 .365
Cedeno, Ronny 29 82 249 24 60 13 2 3 24 15 58 4 2 .243 .286 .354

No projection system likes Jason Bay, so the composite falls right in line.

Bill James loves Ike Davis (.288/.377/.504). ZiPs hates Ike Davis (.255/.338/.449). Put them in a blender and you get a nice reasonable middle ground. Somehow, though, this middle ground seems more wrong. Something about his history seems to suggest he'll hit either pole -- but that's just an intuitive guess. If he hits this composite projection, though, you'll have to admit the yay-sayers and the naysayers will both be unsatisfied with the clarity of the results.

Splitting the difference looks pretty good on Wright, and who knows if these systems gave him the high BABIPs he's always enjoyed. Personally, this feels like a good baseline projection.

This is what happens when you invite ZiPs to a Lucas Duda party. Talk about peeing on a rug. I'll take the overs.

That would be a career high in walks for Ruben Tejada, but a step back in walk rate. Look at that second column for why the overs might make sense here.

We did not need a consensus projection for Josh Thole. You know why? Almost every projection system has him down for the same numbers. Josh Thole: projectable (just not in the way you normally say that word).

I think Andres Torres and Scott Hairston can combine to produce the .262/.333.409 line the average National League centerfielder produced last year, or close enough to it that Torres' glove will make it work. But looking at the projections for Adam Loewen and Mike Baxter suggests that the fifth outfielder position will be a revolving position until a youngster from the organization comes to take a job for good. Eh, in a selfish, let's see some new players sort of way, that's better than a guy that could be 'just good enough' to keep the prospects at bay.

Justin Turner and Ronny Cedeno: good enough at a few things to exist on a Major League roster, which is more than most of us can say for ourselves.

There are nine hitters on the Mets that are projected to show an average or above-average on-base percentage this season. That's definitely something.

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