We looked at the composite projections (supplied by Fantasy411) for the Mets' hitters last week, and in a couple cases, splitting the difference felt a little like kissing your sister. Nobody likes a wishy-washy tie, especially when Ike Davis is the matter at hand.
So are we going to like the composites any better when R.A. Dickey is the subject? Probably not, but one thing becomes clear when looking at the numbers: this will be a tough year to watch Mets pitching.
Our fearless leader is still our fearless leader, but his numbers take a hit here. Those numbers are probably accounting for the fact that Dickey's FIP has been more than a half-run worse than his ERA over the past two years. Those numbers are probably looking at the fact that Dickey's BABIP has been been hovering at a too-low .270. You know what? he says "Knuck You" to the projections -- just last week, someone showed that knuckleballers have put up a .271 BABIP and have outperformed their FIP over the history of baseball. So let's take the under here.
It doesn't make sense that no projection systems like Jon Niese better. This result would be the best of his career, and yet, it seems like a low projection for a guy with a 50+% ground-ball rate, average control and average swinging-strike stuff. There's disagreement about his stuff, and someone is going to be right and someone is going to be wrong.
The new fences may prove us wrong, but is that projection for Dillon Gee also a little pudgy? He's managed an above-average swinging strike rate for the first 193+ innings of his career, has an above-average ground-ball rate, and just needs to find the control he showed in the Minor Leagues in order to be above-average in all three phases of the game. After a year of urging caution, I now feel that ZiPs hates Gee too much.
Oh Johan. First, it was "150 innings would be a bonus." Then it was "he looked great in his bullpenner." Let this composite remind us that Chien-Ming Wang is still not even 80% Chien-Ming Wang yet and they both had the same surgery. Of course, 80% Johan Santana is a lot more interesting than 80% Wang. Something about the motion of the ocean.
Let's just not agree to watch games in which a Mets fifth starter has been handed the ball, okay? Unless it's an ML debut, of course.
Relievers just relieve, but at least it looks like Ramon Ramirez, Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch will be fine. Tim Byrdak will LOOGY, and Daniel Herrera and Bobby Parnell will duke it out to see who can remain relevant on the field (both have great relevance in our hearts, of course).