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Around SBN: The MMA Hour Is Back

Our own Bill Petti is all grown up and will be talking Mets and Citi Field changes on Clubhouse Confidential (@CHConfidential) on MLB Network at 5:30pm tonight (re-broadcast at 7:30pm).

If you missed it, you can watch Bill's appearance here.

3 months ago Aa_avatar_tiny Eric Simon 17 comments 0 recs  | 

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I caught a late re-broadcast of Clubhouse Confidential, starring Bill Petti

I recorded the show with my camera phone, which was an absolutely brutal process. I will post a video of the entire segment as soon as possible. (I did the best I could.)

RIP Gary Edmund Carter (1954 - 2012)
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Coming soon: Stats-Results Correlation Primer (this will change the way we approach statistical analysis)
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MetsBlog; Presented by Veringular
Veringular - We're dropping your calls on purpose and there isn't **** you can do about it

by sj10689 on Mar 1, 2012 2:49 AM EST reply actions  

Ugh

It’s going to take at least 12 hours to upload a little more than 11 minutes of video to YouTube. Unbelievable.

RIP Gary Edmund Carter (1954 - 2012)
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Coming soon: Stats-Results Correlation Primer (this will change the way we approach statistical analysis)
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MetsBlog; Presented by Veringular
Veringular - We're dropping your calls on purpose and there isn't **** you can do about it

by sj10689 on Mar 1, 2012 6:12 AM EST up reply actions  

50% uploaded

ETA: 7:55 PM

RIP Gary Edmund Carter (1954 - 2012)
.
Coming soon: Stats-Results Correlation Primer (this will change the way we approach statistical analysis)
.
MetsBlog; Presented by Veringular
Veringular - We're dropping your calls on purpose and there isn't **** you can do about it

by sj10689 on Mar 1, 2012 1:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Holy hell!

Are you using dial-up from 1995?

Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.

by Steve Schreiber on Mar 1, 2012 3:37 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I'm using internet tethered from my phone (AT&T)

In other words, my computer is connected to the internet, through my phone’s internet, via USB. In this case, the phone acts as a modem. (See www.tether.com to find out more about this, since you can do it on an unlimited plan without incurring fees)

4G isn’t exactly top of the line in my case, although it’s faster than my old service, which I cancelled. (Thank God.) But unfortunately, I realized a short time ago about the dangers of using too much of their internet, since my speeds have been capped. (They call it “throttling”)

The file I’m uploading is 1,940 MB (1.89 GB)

RIP Gary Edmund Carter (1954 - 2012)
.
Coming soon: Stats-Results Correlation Primer (this will change the way we approach statistical analysis)
.
MetsBlog; Presented by Veringular
Veringular - We're dropping your calls on purpose and there isn't **** you can do about it

by sj10689 on Mar 1, 2012 5:19 PM EST up reply actions  

75% complete, BTW

new ETA: 8:40 PM (This is super brutal, now)

RIP Gary Edmund Carter (1954 - 2012)
.
Coming soon: Stats-Results Correlation Primer (this will change the way we approach statistical analysis)
.
MetsBlog; Presented by Veringular
Veringular - We're dropping your calls on purpose and there isn't **** you can do about it

by sj10689 on Mar 1, 2012 5:22 PM EST up reply actions  

99%

Should be up any minute now.

RIP Gary Edmund Carter (1954 - 2012)
.
Coming soon: Stats-Results Correlation Primer (this will change the way we approach statistical analysis)
.
MetsBlog; Presented by Veringular
Veringular - We're dropping your calls on purpose and there isn't **** you can do about it

by sj10689 on Mar 1, 2012 9:56 PM EST up reply actions  

It's up

Available in full 1080p HD

RIP Gary Edmund Carter (1954 - 2012)
.
Coming soon: Stats-Results Correlation Primer (this will change the way we approach statistical analysis)
.
MetsBlog; Presented by Veringular
Veringular - We're dropping your calls on purpose and there isn't **** you can do about it

by sj10689 on Mar 1, 2012 11:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Dang.

Not really confident Wright’s problem was all in his head with those dimensions, so says Bill. Kind of speculating his best days are behind him?

by MetsFan4Decades on Mar 1, 2012 9:04 AM EST reply actions  

It's difficult (maybe impossible) to tell

But it’s not too late to be optimistic. If he underperforms, it’s slightly more likely that he walks once his contract is up. (Though that could happen if he does too good as well.)

On a side note, I’m aware that Eric has posted the link to the Bill Petti segment. The video I’m uploading has extensive coverage of the topic that precedes that segment, and it’s important that those interested in this topic watch that part as well. This video should be uploaded and ready for viewing by 7:30 tonight.

RIP Gary Edmund Carter (1954 - 2012)
.
Coming soon: Stats-Results Correlation Primer (this will change the way we approach statistical analysis)
.
MetsBlog; Presented by Veringular
Veringular - We're dropping your calls on purpose and there isn't **** you can do about it

by sj10689 on Mar 1, 2012 9:49 AM EST up reply actions  

Reply fail.

Don’t know what happened.

I was trying to comment on Bill’s perception of Wright’s offensive slide not being all tied into those fences. As in even with the adjustments there, he still feels there’s cause for concern with his bat.

by MetsFan4Decades on Mar 1, 2012 9:49 AM EST up reply actions  

Bill did make an interesting point of consideration, though

I’ll elaborate on it a bit – Wright’s failures to handle Citi Field well may have had a psychological impact on his offensive production overall. As I recall, in 2009, his batting stance was flawed and sapped him of his power. HoJo did make some adjustments and he did hit a little better (and I’m sure Dave Hudgens helped too), but I couldn’t help but wonder if Citi Field really did play on his psyche, and if so, to what extent? I’m aware that his away power numbers have diminished as well, so this is a topic of consideration. I refuse to buy into the Garrett Atkins-Benjamin Button theory of Wright’s decline in stats from 2006-2008 as a precursor into the future. I’m quite sure the trend isn’t linear, either.

I project Wright for about 27 HRs and a .280ish average or so. I don’t want him stealing too many bases, though.

RIP Gary Edmund Carter (1954 - 2012)
.
Coming soon: Stats-Results Correlation Primer (this will change the way we approach statistical analysis)
.
MetsBlog; Presented by Veringular
Veringular - We're dropping your calls on purpose and there isn't **** you can do about it

by sj10689 on Mar 1, 2012 10:00 AM EST up reply actions  

Well

Francoeur did comment recently that those fences did get in Bay and Wright’s head. LOL…

Seriously, the increased Ks, altered batting stance, drop in production somewhat all seemed to coincide with the move to Citi field. All coincidence? I can’t help but think no.

And his away numbers…if he had tinkered with his swing and stance to compensate at Citi, I can see that having an impact on the road as well.

If his back is really healed (which then wouldn’t be an issue either this year) we hopefully should see numbers more in line with his earlier years. Decrease in those strikeouts would be a good start.

by MetsFan4Decades on Mar 1, 2012 11:10 AM EST up reply actions  

Exactly

I think we nailed it. Though it’s by no means conclusive, it’s highly likely.

According to the segment, Citi Field robbed us of 83 HRs the last 3 seasons, for an average of about 27 per season (rounded down). David Wright hits about 15 – 20% of Mets HRs, which means he could have about 5 more HRs at Citi this year, and because of a few adjustments, maybe 2 more on the road. Wright hitting 7 more HRs could be a major difference maker. However, our opponents will also hit more HRs at Citi as well, and our pitching staff might suffer, but the advantage of the change would be largely ours nevertheless

RIP Gary Edmund Carter (1954 - 2012)
.
Coming soon: Stats-Results Correlation Primer (this will change the way we approach statistical analysis)
.
MetsBlog; Presented by Veringular
Veringular - We're dropping your calls on purpose and there isn't **** you can do about it

by sj10689 on Mar 1, 2012 11:20 AM EST up reply actions  

There is really no way to know

Bill was referencing Wright’s increase in Ks, decrease in contact specifically on hard stuff inside, and him swinging at more pitches out of the zone (the latter which he said Mets people though was a result of Wright starting his swing earlier in order to get around on pitches) as things he thought were problems independent of the park.

It could be that he’s developed some issues that have nothing to do with the park. But I think (and I think Bill also did then speculate) that that stuff could potentially be due to the park too. As you said it seems a bit too coincidental and if you start screwing with you swing it can have a lot of ramifications.

by LGNYM on Mar 1, 2012 8:55 PM EST up reply actions  

In one way or another, it's theoretically impossible for the new ballbark to have absolutely no impact on Wright's approach at the plate

Of course, this is dealing with even slight intangible changes, and the assumption that every event that occurs in the present changes the outcome in the future, even if by a tiny bit. Whether or not they are statistically significant – that part will be impossible to quantify or detail conclusively.

Whatever the cause of Wright’s slump may be, be it the psychological impact of the inability to adjust well to the new ballpark, which may have had an impact on his swinging mechanics in general, or just a natural trend (or a combination of both), this upcoming season might tell us something that directs us towards an answer to that question. We’ll never know absolutely for sure, but it may be possible to be highly certain that the ballpark is a statistically significant factor.

In my opinion, I think the new ballpark definitely affected Wright’s approach at the plate, and to add insult to injury, he not only began to make mistakes in adjusting his swinging mechanics, but he overcompensated with those changes, which changed his swinging mechanics while playing at away games, as well. The mounting frustration, as I could imagine (you can clearly see it in the beginning of the latter half of the Clubhouse Confidential video I posted) definitely showed during these times, and there’s no doubt in my mind that it has played a significant role in this slump. He usually restrains his anger during press conferences, but even I could tell many times that he’s fuming inside.

RIP Gary Edmund Carter (1954 - 2012)
.
Coming soon: Stats-Results Correlation Primer (this will change the way we approach statistical analysis)
.
MetsBlog; Presented by Veringular
Veringular - We're dropping your calls on purpose and there isn't **** you can do about it

by sj10689 on Mar 1, 2012 11:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah its definitely had some effect

Too coincidental and he’s admitted to changing his swing, tinkering, etc.

Though even if it was almost all the stadium, I still wonder if fixing the stadium fixes him. Bad habits can be tough to break and after several years I do wonder if he can find his old swing again

by LGNYM on Mar 2, 2012 9:49 AM EST up reply actions  

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