Mets Top 50 Prospect List (With new prospect grading system)
1. Matt Harvey | RHP | AA | Age – 22 | Drafted – 1st Round 2010 (8.0 B) – I was very bearish on him at the time of the draft and Harvey has managed to quickly turn me into a believer. His stuff has always been undeniable, but his command is much, much better than I anticipated which changed my tune. He gets the edge over Wheeler because of closeness to breaking in and his workhorse body.
2. Zack Wheeler | RHP | HiA | Age – 21 | Drafted – 1st Round 2009 (SFG) (8.5 C) – The switch back to his high school mechanics is looking like a brilliant one right now with the big improvement he showed in command. Just a tick under Harvey, but the two are interchangeable depending on whom you ask.
3. Jeurys Familia | RHP | AA | Age – 22 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (8.0 C) – I have always been one of Familia’s biggest fans. I ranked him 9th last year when most did not put him in the top 10 and I think he has a much better chance at sticking in the rotation than he gets credit for. I actually put a lot of stock into Wally Backman’s praise of him.
4. Brandon Nimmo | OF | Rk | Age – 18| Drafted – 1st Round 2011 (8.0 D) – I was a big proponent of going with Matt Barnes with this pick, but the Mets are top heavy with right-handed pitchers and lack serious upside with hitters, so this pick has grown on me. He is very far away, but the sky is the limit.
5. Jenrry Mejia | RHP | AAA | Age – 22 | Drafted – IFA 2006 (7.5 C) – The injury is definitely a serious concern, especially when that has been a fear of most experts. His upside still gets him near the top of this list because based on what he showed at age 20 in the Big Leagues I feel comfortable he can at least be this team’s closer one day. Optimistic? Maybe.
4 months ago
Pelferized
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Don't like the Nimmo and Mejia rankings
Nimmo, he has ceiling, but I just think he’s too raw at this point to jump all the way to the top. Mejia, I would rank him somewhere between 5-10, because of the TJ, and the questions there.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
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AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest | 1st place- 2012 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 3, 2012 10:17 AM EST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
Beat me to it
No way Nimmo should be top 5 just yet
"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage
by blueandorange4life on Feb 3, 2012 10:30 AM EST up reply actions
Disagree, 4 seems fine for a first round pick.
A lot of people were complaining at Harvey’s high rankings after he was drafted, but there is a reason these guys get picked where they do.
thinking the same thing
but Harvey had an awesome college career, Nimmo had an awesome legion and ‘circuit’ career
2012 New York Mets, World Series Champions!
"Harvey had an awesome college career"
Not true at all. He actually probably underperformed in college if anything. He had a pretty good freshman year (great ERA, but command issues that worried scouts), an atrocious sophomore year, and a much better junior year but I feel like scouts were expecting more from him in college.
not living up to expectations
and not being awesome are two different things. In that second year, his ERA increased (probably related to an increased HR rate) but his k-rate stay above 9/9 inn. And his other two years were years any team would take, especially that improved BB rate in his junior year
2012 New York Mets, World Series Champions!
they still liked him enough to pick him
ahead of guys like Sonny Gray, Jed Bradley or Matt Barnes.
Not sure there’s a right answer here, but I think some people are inconsistent in this. If you liked the Nimmo pick, he should probably rank pretty high. If you think those polished arms are better than Nimmo, and polished college guys like Brad Miller, Anthony Meo and Jason Esposito (#62, #63, and #64 in the draft) are better than Michael Fulmer, then you probably shouldn’t be a big fan of the Mets 2011 draft.
This.
Their upsides demand high rankings.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place
And the established track record of success is swiss cheese?
Ceasar Puello. He’s also young, athletic, toolsy, has a highish theoretical potential ceiling (despite the drop in some of his numbers from 2010 to 2011; plummeting BABIP would do that). Nimmo might have somewhat higher theoretical potential, but the established record of having potential and realizing it over 315 MiLB games gets ignored? Especially when it’s a very stark comparison, where Nimmo literally has as many MiLB games as I do fingers.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
Ryder or Riot #WWWYKI
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest | 1st place- 2012 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 3, 2012 7:29 PM EST up reply actions
So is your main complaint that Nimmo was ranked higher then Puello?
Because that’s an upside v. upside debate.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place
No, it's that (in general, not just Pelf here) track records are too often ignored in favor of the "shininess" of raw talent
Rob was talking about that, in one of his Mets prospect rankings.
Now, don’t get me wrong- a guy like Nimmo should rightly be ranked ahead of, say, prospect Dillon Gee. Gee had a track record of eh decency in AA and AAA, but he didn’t have the talent/skill level to warrant being highly thought of. Compare to Puello, or Flores, or Valdespin, and that’s where it rears it’s head the most- other highly talented/skilled prospects. How much more should Nimmo’s higher theoretical potential account for as compared to Puello/Flores/Valdespin’s lower theoretical potential + experience?
And, worst thing is is that the notion of experience vs. tools and vice-versa isn’t actually evenly applied, either. Again, not Pelferized specifically but just in general, people will rank Nimmo over Puello (I like Puello, and their ultimate upside is similar) because Nimmo’s sum theoretical ceiling are seen as better than Puello’s sum theoretical ceiling + Minor League track record showing his tools are legit, and holding up. At the same time, despite being highly thought and relatively advanced for at a young age, Juan Urbina gets ranked lower than guys who don’t have his raw theoretical talent ceiling, but have more established MiLB records of translating their talent into actual success, like Colin McHugh.
It’s kind of like education and job experience, on resumes. Some guy fresh out of college has a bachelor’s in the field, with a 3.75 GPA. The other guy has 20 years of experience in the field, with an associates (or worse). Who is more qualified for the job?
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
Ryder or Riot #WWWYKI
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest | 1st place- 2012 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 3, 2012 9:19 PM EST up reply actions
Nimmo v. Puello or Flores or Valdespin
is still an upside v. upside debate. They’re are all in the same category; high-ceiling/low-floor. It’s not like Nimmo was ranked a B whereas the others were ranked D’s. They all got D’s.
And with regard to Urbina, I think he doesn’t get that same type of boost if you will, because as far as I know he didn’t have credible scouting reports coming out of Venezuela. They were more like tall-tails and urban legends. “Hey did you hear about this son of a former major league who could hit 90 as a 15 year old?” That type of stuff. Personally I would probably have Morris, Tapia, and Urbina right before Gorski and McHugh because I do favor high-upsides over high-floors but those other graders might see Gorski and McHugh as mid-upside guys.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place
So to build on that...
why hasn't Allan Dykstra made the Top 50?
by MetsFanXXIII on Feb 3, 2012 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
certainly some guys I would rank him ahead of
feel like he would have been top 15 5 years ago with that production
2012 New York Mets, World Series Champions!
Nimm and Mejia
BA had Nimmo 3rd and Mejia 6th
Sickels had Nimmo 4th and Mejia 7th
Baseball Prospectus had Nimmo 4th and Mejia 7th
As you can see I am actually higher than them on Mejia, but he is just too much of an injury concern at this point to be any higher.
I couldn't understand those guys who had Mejia outside the top-5. Durability concerns aside, his skill and upside is pretty clearly top-5 in the system.
So bravo for that.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place
Sometimes you just have to go out on a limb and give an unproven guy credit for tools/projection/makeup/etc
Prospect ranking would be way less interesting if you just waited for guys to succeed first.
This.
It wasn’t long ago when the likes of Eddie Kunz, Joe Smith and Brant Rustich were routinely checking in somewhere in the top 10 of most these lists.
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by Steve Schreiber on Feb 3, 2012 4:04 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Ah yes, Eddie Kunz
our closer of the future
"..."
by Thaddeus Ballpheasant on Feb 3, 2012 6:40 PM EST up reply actions
Joe Smith was awesome last year
Doesn’t give up a lot of homers, gets good ground balls. I wish we kept him and sent Sean Green to Cleveland.
Actually yeah.
He was worth 2.1 rWAR in 2011. I didn’t even realize…that’s pretty awesome.
OMAR!!!!!!!
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by Steve Schreiber on Feb 3, 2012 11:55 PM EST up reply actions
That Putz deal was such a coup for the Mets
Now, I’d MUCH rather have Carp, Vargas and Smith than Bay, Gee, and Rauch.
37 - 14 - 41 - 31 - 17 - 42 - SHEA
Don't forget about Carrera and Chavez, too.
"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."
by BobbyV_Incognito on Feb 4, 2012 1:22 AM EST up reply actions
He made a few really bad ones, but
I think that one might be the worst.
Well, I have a new Fanpost topic now…
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
Ryder or Riot #WWWYKI
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest | 1st place- 2012 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 4, 2012 2:33 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
IMO, it's the 3rd-worst trade in franchise history.
First being Seaver to the Reds, and 2nd being Kazmir for Zambrano. Although I might switch 2 and 3, since the Putz deal cost us so many more players, and got us even less of a return. Plus, Zambrano wasn’t injured when we traded for him.
"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."
by BobbyV_Incognito on Feb 4, 2012 9:19 AM EST up reply actions
I think Kazmir for Zambrano should be 1a or 1b
Traded the better pitcher away, who started outperforming Zambrano the second he put on a jersey, and would have been amazing by 2006, when we could have used him in the playoffs. All because our pitching coach ‘guru’ said he could fix him in 15 minutes, FUUUUUUUUUUUUU. Also, go all butterfly effect, if we have Kazmir, who knows if Lollie gets that chance in the playoffs and parlays it into a chance the next year, which is all Omar needs to see to give him 3/36.
By the time Kazmir stopped being effective, Zambrano’s career was beyond where LOLlie is right now
2012 New York Mets, World Series Champions!
It's bad but I personally wouldn't put it up that high.
I think the Seaver and Kazmir trades are firmly in a category of their own: Seaver just because he was Seaver and Kazmir because he was a BA Top 15 prospect in 03 and 04 with a ton of value and then was given away for pennies on the dollar. The Putz deal is awful for many reasons but they didn’t give away any star level players…just a lot of depth. There would’ve been a lot of useful guys (Vargas, Smith, Carp) but no studs, to this point.
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by Steve Schreiber on Feb 4, 2012 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
What makes the trade so terrible, to me,
isn’t just the amount of depth we gave up; it’s that we desperately needed that depth. Vargas has been worth 5.4 fWAR the past 2+ years; we definitely could have used his ability to pitch 200 or so innings in 2009 and 2010. Chavez, Heilman, Smith, and Carp aren’t studs, either, but they could have proved tons more useful than Reed and Putz did.
"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."
by BobbyV_Incognito on Feb 4, 2012 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
The Amos Otis trade ranks ahead of that trade
by graves9 on Feb 4, 2012 8:53 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Staub for Lolich sucked too
The Cone trade was bad at worst, premature at best. Though Jeff Kent had a Hall of Fame career, he made no impact on the Mets, and they balked at the opportunity to resign Cone when they had the chance. The perfect game for the Yankees was karma.
37 - 14 - 41 - 31 - 17 - 42 - SHEA
I thought that was our karma for the Royals
When they got Amos Otis for Joe Foy. Maybe Sandy’s working up a Santana for Wil Myers and Bubba Starling trade now…
37 - 14 - 41 - 31 - 17 - 42 - SHEA
Hey, don't knock Joe Smith
The most unorthodox pitcher with a bland name ever.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
Ryder or Riot #WWWYKI
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest | 1st place- 2012 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 3, 2012 7:31 PM EST up reply actions
no love for Ian Bladergroen
or Ambrioux Concepcion?
2012 New York Mets, World Series Champions!
Love Esix Sneed
Love Esix Sneed
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
Ryder or Riot #WWWYKI
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest | 1st place- 2012 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 3, 2012 7:44 PM EST up reply actions
I remember when people said that Aarom Baldiris was going to be the next Edgardo Alfonzo.
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by Steve Schreiber on Feb 3, 2012 11:59 PM EST up reply actions
It as mentioned a couple times how good the system is relative to a couple years ago
Courtesty of Toby Hyde of www.metsminorleagueblog.com.
2009 Top 41 Prospects
- OF Fernando Martinez
- SS Wilmer Flores
- RHP Brad Holt
- LHP Jonathan Niese
- RHP Jenry Mejia
- SS Reese Havens
- C Francisco Pena
- 3B Jefry Marte
- RHP Scott Moviel
- RHP Dillon Gee
- RHP Bobby Parnell
- RHP Eddie Kunz
- RHP Brant Rustich
- 1B Ike Davis
- CF Javier Rodriguez
- C Josh Thole
- OF Cesar Puello
- LHP Robert Carson
- SS Ruben Tejada
- C Dock Doyle
- LHP Angel Calero
- RHP Eric Beaulac
- OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis
- LHP Michael Antonini
- 2B Greg Veloz
- SS Jose Coronado
- Jeurys Familia
- RHP Stephen Clyne
- 3B Shawn Bowman
- RHP Nick Carr
- RHP Tobi Stoner
- 3B/1B Stefan Welch
- RHP Kyle Allen
- 3B Zach Lutz
- RHP Elvin Ramirez
- RHP Scott Shaw
- LHP James Fuller
- Eduardo Aldama
- SS Juan Lagares
- LHP Roy Merritt
- 1B Lucas Duda
As terrible as that list is,
we’ve still graduated 7 of those guys to the majors, and Havens, Mejia, Nieuwenhuis, Puello, Flores, Lutz, and Familia have a good chance to get to the majors.
"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."
by BobbyV_Incognito on Feb 4, 2012 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, the Mets have some great small college scouts and get some late round steals.
I can’t imagine how bad a list from 2006-2008 would look though once you erase that 08 draft.
Yikes
Holt at number three. Sigh.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
Ryder or Riot #WWWYKI
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest | 1st place- 2012 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 4, 2012 3:16 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I think in 2008, KG had Stephen Clyne in his top 10, which is embarrassing.
Holt, Moviel and Pena in the top ten…wow. Stoner, Antonini, Veloz, Welch, and Doyle make me laugh, while the fact that Shawn Bowman is there makes me cry. Duda all the way at 41 is interesting, and I’m still a believer in Lutz.
37 - 14 - 41 - 31 - 17 - 42 - SHEA
Duda was still in that would he ever recover from his wrist injury phase.
We have hindsight now which excuses a couple guys like FMart and Holt who had tools and some positive production up to that point. Half of these guys had bench/bullpen ceilings if that.
It's incredible how quickly things change
because just two years ago at this time, Duda was thought of as a fringe bench player. Then he busted out with the power stroke in 2010 and everything changed.
Baseball is weird.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
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by Steve Schreiber on Feb 4, 2012 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
Stoner was so close to being useful
damn weed!!!
2012 New York Mets, World Series Champions!
even coming off a slow start to his carreer
Ike Davis should not have been below the likes of Kunz and Rustich.
Moviel…o brett
2012 New York Mets, World Series Champions!
Ike was a weird prospect then
I’ve never seen a player pushed so hard through the system, and respond by hitting for more power at every next level, all the way up to the major leagues. That’s when the experts projected him to be an Adam LaRoche type league average 1B- yeah, right.
After his meek showing at Brooklyn, people were talking about using his plus arm to move him to the bullpen, which is probably why Omar was so drawn to him.
37 - 14 - 41 - 31 - 17 - 42 - SHEA
Lyle Overbay was the (ridiculous) comp that Dave "#6org" Cameron gave, too.
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by Steve Schreiber on Feb 5, 2012 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
That comp was made while Ike was just hitting moonshots the first couple mopmths of last year
Cameron said Ike had just average pop and was a average defender.
by graves9 on Feb 8, 2012 8:31 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Cameron is the Lyle Overbay of blogging
2012 New York Mets, World Series Champions!
Nah, he's the Mike Lupica of blogging.
by graves9 on Feb 9, 2012 12:50 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
He compares everyone to Lyle Overbay
Just last week, he dropped that for Eric Hosmer too.
37 - 14 - 41 - 31 - 17 - 42 - SHEA
Just today he compared Yonder Alonso to Lyle Overbay.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.
by Steve Schreiber on Feb 9, 2012 5:46 PM EST up reply actions
I am assuming this is pre-2009 rankings
when he just didn’t hit any HRs after finishing an awesome college career. He didn’t have a great Brooklyn debut, but considering how high he was drafted and where Nimmo goes in our improved system, I just can’t believe he is ‘so low’
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