Thoughts on 2012

So it's almost that time of year again where hope rings eternal for all MLB teams, even for an up and coming mid-market team like the Mets. The success of this team will rely on what has become commonplace for the Mets in recent memory. A combination of luck, hope, health and multiple bounce back seasons. It's nice to think that something could and should come together for this team for once, but just as always so many questions remain. Where is our starting rotation depth? How will our 'revamped' bullpen perform? Are Davis and Wright fully healed? Is there anything left in Jaybay's overinflated salary and underperforming game? Is Duda's end of season run for real? Can Duda or Murphy play adequate defense? Can Tejada handle a full season? How much can Johan offer? Will Torres revert to his '10 form? That seems enough.

With all these questions its hard to imagine this team being anywhere near successful this season. Especially when you consider the major improvements within the division and the talent gap that exists between the Mets and the rest of the East. Even still, I see the possibility that this team outperforms expectations and finishes in 3rd or 4th. This however requires that all the above questions be resolved in a positive way and I just don't see that happening.

My thoughts on how I see some of those questions being answered. Wright and Davis both have good seasons with Bay and Duda performing adequately. Pelfrey, Niese and Dickey all give solid production; 14, 11 and 13 wins respectively. Murphy plays ok defense at second while his bat under performs; Havens takes over in mid-May. Joahn does not start the year with the team and isn't starting a game until June. Tejada outperforms expectations for most of the season on both sides of the ball. Gee gets knocked around and is unable to stick in the rotation. I think this results for a win total of around 80. What is your Over/Under prediction?

I have big concerns with the rotation. I do not think it is smart for any team to pencil in Johan as a definite starter for more than half of this season. Unless management has some concrete evidence that Johan will be fine, I am confused at to how they have not acquired any sort of rotation depth aside from upper level fillers. There are two potential slots, Johan and Gee, that could need to be filled and there is no depth to back them up. I was hoping for a bottom barrel guy like Jeff Francis at the least. One underrated pitcher I was thinking Sandy ans Co. would definitely target was Paul Maholm; the Cubs wisely picked him up instead. It's very curious as to why this team has not made more moves this off season; although the Wilponzies must be a large part of the issue. Another possibility is management wants to hold steady until a clearer picture develops from which they can work. Either way I don't think they did enough to make this team a winning club.

There is still some room for improvement at this point and I hope Sandy makes another move. Just a few things that I would like to see to shore up some areas. There has been talk about Ankiel as a 5th outfielder which I am fine withthis as long as it is a minor league deal. I wish we would sign both Rich Harden and Mike Gonzalez; minor league and $1 million deals respectively. I think Harden could be a great arm for around 10 starts in the rotation and could then switch to the bullpen to keep him healthy. Gonzalez wouldgive us another effective lefty so Byrdakdoes not get over worked. If Johan comes back healthy and Gee is able to stick in the rotation then sliding Harden into the bullpen would give us a really strong pitching staff.

Then the next big move I would like to see is the Metssolidifying the catcher position. This would add a much needed power boost to the lineup and resolve the black hole we have at backstop. We would accomplish this by trading for a young budding star in Matt Wieters. Wietersis only 25 years old, has a great bat and is also very good behind the plate. Adding his talent and bat to the lineup would really put this offense over the top. The Orioles would be smart to trade one of their young stars but it is unknown which one they would move and at what price. Their system is not that deep and could use either offensive or pitching help. The proposed trade would look as such:

Wieters to NYM for Flores, Valdespin/Puello and Mazzoni/Michael Fulmer to BAL.

I think this is a pretty fair deal where the O'sget a high upside future 3B talent in Flores, a potential impact bat for the IF or OF and a pitcher with no. 2 or 3 upside. It could potentially be a large coup for the O's if Flores fills his potential and Valdespin or Puello are for real. I feel like it could be a bit much for the Mets to give up but the Mets are getting such a great player in return that it makes it worthwhile. While we give up some depth and future pieces, the system will be left with enough assets withpitching and fielding to complement and team with our current young stars for the next few years. When our young starters and a few young position players make the move to the majors our team will be really talented in the years to come.

But for 2012 if things played out well we would be looking at a team structured as such. And this team, I like this team.

Torres, Murphy, Wright, Davis, Wieters, Duda, Bay, Tejada - This could be a scary lineup.

Santana, Dickey, Niese, Pelfrey, Gee - Provided Santana is healthy and Gee sticks

Ramirez, Rauch, Francisco, Gonzalez, Parnell, Harden, Byrdak - Potentially great bullpen

Hairston, Turner, Thole, Ankiel, Cedeno - OK group

All in all the success of this team rests on hope whichever way you look at it.