2012 Mets Player Profile: Jon Niese

by Chris McShane on Feb 8, 2012 1:00 PM EST

Entering his age-25 season this year, Jon Niese fits squarely into the middle of the Mets’ rotation. Drafted by the organization back in the seventh round of the 2005 draft, Niese began his professional career at the age of 18, gradually working his way up to New Orleans, the Mets’ AAA affiliate at the time, as a 21-year-old in 2008. He didn’t post dazzling numbers at any stop along the way, but as a left-handed starter with decent results, he was thrust into the midst of the Mets’ September failure that year, making three starts. One was a brilliant eight-inning outing against the Braves, but he allowed 11 runs in only 6 innings over the other two. Niese split his time between the Bisons and Mets in the early part of 2009, but when it looked like he’d get a shot at pitching for the second half of the season, he went down to a gruesome hamstring injury that cost him the rest of the year.

In 2010 and 2011, Niese became a member of the Mets’ rotation, albeit a bit of a puzzling one. At times, he’s pitched very, very well, but his career 4.39 ERA thus far doesn’t fall in line with his 3.77 FIP or 3.64 xFIP. In each of the past two years, Niese’s strikeout and walk percentages have been better than the league average, but his ERA has been worse. In both seasons, Niese struggled mightily down the stretch, and he did not throw 200 innings in either. It’s also worth noting that Niese’s BABIP over the past two years is .328, the sixth-highest mark for pitchers who have thrown at least 200 total innings in that time.

Looking ahead, it remains to be seen whether or not Niese can produce results match what his peripherals suggest. It’s possible that he’s already established what he is at this level, striking out and walking opponents at a desirable rate but giving up so many hits that it erases his good work, making him just a decent pitcher. Despite that, I’ll take the slightly optimistic view on Niese this year and say this will be his first season with a sub-4.00 ERA, which should slot in nicely behind R.A. Dickey and well ahead of Mike Pelfrey and Dillon Gee.

	G	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
2011	27	157.1	7.9	2.5	0.8	.333	67.0%	51.5%	10.4%	4.40	3.36	3.28	2.7
Career	65	370.2	7.7	3.0	0.9	.329	68.9%	49.1%	10.7%	4.39	3.77	3.64	5.1

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I expect a similar K-rate

slightly improved BB-rate and better luck in the ERA department. I hope he can get more run support for the WINZZZZ

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by astromets on Feb 8, 2012 1:49 PM EST reply actions

His BABIP is high

but do we have splits for when he’s pitching with no one on base vs. when he’s pitching with men on base? Does he do significantly better out of the windup or stretch? His LOB% seems unluckily low, but maybe his problem is pitching with men on base?

by BurleighGrimes on Feb 8, 2012 1:54 PM EST reply actions

In 2011, his BABIP was a tick lower with men on base (.329 v .336 with nobody on).

His K:BB rate are similar too, his FIP is higher with nobody on (3.78 v 2.92 with men on base) because of HRs.

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by Michkin on Feb 8, 2012 2:04 PM EST up reply actions

You can check the splits on the fangraphs tab.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=4424&position=P&season=2011

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by Michkin on Feb 8, 2012 2:05 PM EST up reply actions

thanks, Michkin...

my half-assed theory is debunked then.

by BurleighGrimes on Feb 8, 2012 2:10 PM EST up reply actions

It was worth a shot. It's good to test all hypothesis.

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by Michkin on Feb 8, 2012 2:57 PM EST up reply actions

If Niese can be on par....

….with Gio Gonzalez and/or Cahill, do you think the Mets should trade him in the 2012 off season?

I mean, the hauls Oakland got for both guys were pretty good. If we could get something of that nature it might be too hard to pass up.

by barry_hal_oliver_24 on Feb 8, 2012 2:11 PM EST reply actions

I personally say no.

Reason being he’s under team control through 2015. Theoretically, the cavalry (Wheeler/Familia/Harvey) will have come by then, combining to make a fairly formidable staff.
Though I would say picking up a major position player prospect like D’Arnaud and another minor piece or too is quite tantalizing.

by bjk3047 on Feb 8, 2012 3:30 PM EST up reply actions

Right.

I wouldn’t trade Niese for nothing, but if you’re going to offer up a player like D’Arnaud then yes. But also, Niese, Ike, Murphy and maybe Thole are up for arbitration next year to go along with Pelf, Torres, Acosta and Parnell. That’s raises for all, plus the possibility of Wright’s option and Dickey’s being picked up. So if they want a payroll next year to be what it will be around this year then perhaps some pieces need to be moved (taking into account that NO ONE wants Bay and Santana).

by barry_hal_oliver_24 on Feb 9, 2012 8:33 AM EST up reply actions

Don't know if I'd do it so soon

The rotation, right now, is Dickey, Santana/Filler, Niese, Pelfrey, Gee Next season, Pelfrey will presumably be gone, so it’d be Dickey, Santana, Niese, Gee, Someone else

If Niese is dealt, that brings us down to Dickey, Santana, and Gee as the only guys we know will be around (and Santana, who knows how much pitching he’ll be able to do). Familia and Harvey might theoretically be ready late in the 2012 season for cups of coffee, but who knows right now. Dealing Niese would basically force one of them into the rotation, and I don’t know if I’d be happy with that as things stand right now.

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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 8, 2012 4:08 PM EST up reply actions

I guess whether Sandy does it will depend on where the team is

but personally I do not think Niese should get traded – he is a pretty awesome lefty

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by astromets on Feb 8, 2012 6:49 PM EST up reply actions

If by "pretty awesome" you actually mean "just ok"

I would agree.

by aronofsky40 on Feb 8, 2012 7:30 PM EST up reply actions

1) Try watching a game he pitches before judging.

2) A 3.36 FIP is rather awesome, 29 other teams would like Jon Niese.
3) Go to the Phillies blog where you belong

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by astromets on Feb 9, 2012 1:10 AM EST up reply actions

ugh

I usually ignore trolls. but srsly. go away

I believe in one Dickey, Maker of knuckles and balls

by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on Feb 9, 2012 6:53 AM EST up reply actions

Considering:

1)he is a lefty
2)who faces a lot of righties
3)players have a tendency to pull the ball

Mets defense from 2010 to 2011, players with >600 innings:
Wrongz: -21 UZR
Ray ASS: -8
Bay: -8
Pagan: -5
Turner: -10
Tejada: -2

Ike: +12
Francoeur: +3

So, we had a lot of negative numbers in to the left side and middle, and the only positives were to the far right side of the defense.

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by Michkin on Feb 8, 2012 2:13 PM EST reply actions

Johan/Takahashi in 2010 and Capuano in 2011 were the other lefty starters, but they are more flyball prone than Niese

Johan: 34% GB rate
Tak2: 38%
Cap: 43 %
Niese: 51%

#blameWrongz

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by Michkin on Feb 8, 2012 2:28 PM EST up reply actions

One thing that'd be interesting to see

Is his BABIP on groundballs/linedrives/flyballs compared with average.

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by Aidan Gibson on Feb 8, 2012 2:30 PM EST up reply actions

It's hard to get league average BABIP per batted ball types, but using 2008 tRA as proxy

Niese BABIP per batted ball:
GB .251
LD .798
FB .323

tRA outs per event (2008)
GB .812 → Proxy BABIP (?) = .188
LD .305 → .695
FB .830 (outfield fly balls) → .170

The difference is higher on FB>LD>GB

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by Michkin on Feb 8, 2012 2:47 PM EST up reply actions

Baseball Reference has them for every year.

here

GB: .237
FB: .173
LD: .713

one does not simply walk into mordor...unless winter is coming

by Gina on Feb 8, 2012 11:34 PM EST up reply actions

Also, hitters have BABIP per pull/center/oppo, but pitchers don't have those splits in fangraphs.

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by Michkin on Feb 8, 2012 2:49 PM EST up reply actions

Man

as a sum, that defense was just ugly.

by MetsFan4Decades on Feb 8, 2012 9:59 PM EST up reply actions

Wait'll you get a load of 2012 defense.

by Putnan Prince on Feb 8, 2012 10:29 PM EST up reply actions

Shouldn't be any worse, I'd think

Ike > anyone we had at 1st, and Torres > Pagan. Duda’s no good but Beltran isn’t the defenseman he was…defense won’t be good, but eliminating Willie Harris and most of Justin Turner from the equation are pluses.

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by piazza62 on Feb 8, 2012 10:59 PM EST up reply actions

Tejada should be focused on making every play on defense

since he knows he has more value is on that side of the ball and Murphy looks rangy at second and could be overtaken by Valdespin or Havens at some point

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by astromets on Feb 9, 2012 1:13 AM EST up reply actions

Another theory:

BABIP per month 2011:
Mar/Apr.302
May.309
Jun.297
Jul.345
Ago.430 →season ending injury (rib)

BABIP per month 2010:
Mar/Apr.355
May.413 (only 12 IP, hamstring)
Jun.253
Jul.260
Aug.325
Sept/Oct .395

His BABIP jumps late in the season. It could be that he “gets tired” or something else entirely.

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by Michkin on Feb 8, 2012 3:10 PM EST reply actions

Or maybe

you’re just looking at a small sample of a stat that is already fill with a lot variables to make it fluky.

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by Blame-everyone-else on Feb 8, 2012 4:00 PM EST up reply actions

Very likely

Though there have been concerns about his conditioning leaking out of the organization, so there might be something to it. He’s seen ERA spikes in those last months as well, though his FIP was pretty consistent month to month in 2011.

Frankly, almost nothing that Niese does in 2011 will surprise me. He’s so difficult to project with the limited data. He could break out and become the #3 type guy his periphreals suggest he is. He could basically repeat his last two years. He could get hurt earlier and more often. None of those would surprise me.

He seems awfully comparable to Gavin Floyd. Neither throws their change-up at all, and they both tend to underperform their periphreals. Floyd posts those numbers in a hitter’s park in the tougher league, though.

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by Jeffrey Paternostro on Feb 8, 2012 4:42 PM EST up reply actions

?

Though there have been concerns about his conditioning leaking out of the organization,

Really? I mean that just sounds too much like the Omar regime to think it could have happened now. Even if the org. thinks there is a conditioning problem, keeping it in house not only stops this from being on the back page every time Niese struggles, while also keeping his trade value intact.

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by Blame-everyone-else on Feb 8, 2012 4:47 PM EST up reply actions

Also possible but it's an open question for now.

Not enough evidence to rule out anything. Posting high BABIP like he did in 2010/2011 is uncommon and doesn’t mean automatically that he was just “unlucky” and soon his ERA will regress to his peripherals. Some pitchers consistently over/underperform their peripherals.

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by Michkin on Feb 8, 2012 6:11 PM EST up reply actions