Over at www.grantland.com, Jonah Keri recently posted this article about how awful Saves are as a stat:

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/23416/blowing-up-baseballs-most-dangerous-stat

If you don't care to follow the link and are, like me, unfamiliar with Shutodwns and Meltdowns, a Shutodown is when you increase your team's chances of winning by 6% or more and a Meltdown is when you decrease your team's chances of winning by the same. Here's a look at how the Mets' bullpen did last year in Shutdowns and Meltdowns including the three new guys:

	Shutdowns	Meltdowns	SD/MD
Izzy	23	7	76.67%
Acosta	15	5	75.00%
Rodriguez	18	6	75.00%
Francisco	19	7	73.08%
Rauch	19	9	67.86%
Buchholz	5	3	62.50%
Igarashi	7	5	58.33%
Beato	15	11	57.69%
Parnell	16	15	51.61%
Byrdak	8	13	38.10%
Carrasco	4	7	36.36%

For comparison some of the league leaders: Johnny Venters had 88.7% SD/MD, John Axford 93.5%, Mariano 84.1% and Greg Holland 96.0%.

My take-away from this is that perhaps the three new guys are better than I thought, at least relative to where the Mets' pen was last year. I'm also surprised to see Byrdak so low. Overall, after Santana's health, I think the bullpen will be the biggest swing factor in the Mets' success this year. Parenthetically, Francisco is the only player in the league with three shutdowns so far this season.