It's just about the halfway point of the season and the Mets have a reasonable shot at making the playoffs. How reasonable? Baseball Prospectus pegs the Metsies' current chances at 31%; coolstandings says 52%. Each outlet further breaks out the chances of winning the division as well, but let's not be too greedy: we will happily accept a wild card spot.
Let's say the Mets need to finish with at least 89 wins to secure a playoff berth. That's approximately the number of wins the hypothetical second National League wild card team would have had over the last five seasons. Given their current 43-37 record, it would mean going 46-36 the rest of the way, a .561 winning percentage. It's feasible but important questions remain for the second half:
- Can David Wright and R.A. Dickey sustain their outstanding performances?
- Will Ike Davis continue to rebound? How about Daniel Murphy?
- How aggressive will Sandy Alderson be at the trade deadline? Will he go all-in for a rental like Cole Hamels or Zack Greinke, as one Mets beat writer suggests, or will he be more conservative?
- Will Johan Santana and Chris Young stay healthy?
- What is the point of Miguel Batista?
These questions and more will be discussed in the coming weeks. For now, take the poll: will the Mets make the playoffs?
Click here for my educated guess of an answer, if you wish.
Will the Mets make the playoffs?
Yes (363 votes)
No (199 votes)
562 total votes