On July 3rd, the Mets were 44-37, just 3.5 games out of first place in the NL East and 0.5 games behind the second wild card team. They had a a 52% chance of making the playoffs according to Baseball Prospectus and a 31% chance according to Cool Standings. Now, after a July in which the Mets went 7-18 with a team ERA of 5.29, their playoff odds per BP are 2%; Cool Standings says 3%.
Reality has set in, the team is -- surprise! -- playing closer to its run differential, and making the playoffs is a pipe dream. Still, the Metsies are not mathematically eliminated. What kind of run down the stretch would they need to have a shot at the second wild card? Based on the 89-win playoff benchmark, they would have to finish 39-19, a .661 winning percentage. So basically they would have to play .500 ball with a 2002 Oakland A's 20-game winning streak mixed in somewhere.
On the July 3rd playoff odds post, 64% of voters answered "yes" to the poll question "Will the Mets make the playoffs?" For schnitzengiggle, let's try the poll again.