On July 3rd, the Mets were 44-37, just 3.5 games out of first place in the NL East and 0.5 games behind the second wild card team. They had a a 52% chance of making the playoffs according to Baseball Prospectus and a 31% chance according to Cool Standings. Now, after a July in which the Mets went 7-18 with a team ERA of 5.29, their playoff odds per BP are 2%; Cool Standings says 3%.
Reality has set in, the team is -- surprise! -- playing closer to its run differential, and making the playoffs is a pipe dream. Still, the Metsies are not mathematically eliminated. What kind of run down the stretch would they need to have a shot at the second wild card? Based on the 89-win playoff benchmark, they would have to finish 39-19, a .661 winning percentage. So basically they would have to play .500 ball with a 2002 Oakland A's 20-game winning streak mixed in somewhere.
On the July 3rd playoff odds post, 64% of voters answered "yes" to the poll question "Will the Mets make the playoffs?" For schnitzengiggle, let's try the poll again.
Will the Mets make the playoffs?
Yes (65 votes)
No (328 votes)
393 total votes