Mets vs. Padres: Saber-stat Series Preview

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Tonight, the Mets (52-54, 11GB) finish up their west coast trip with a three-game series against the San Diego Padres (44-63, 13GB).

After taking three of four from the NL West-leading Giants, the Mets walk into a winnable series. The Padres haven't done much well this year, aside from preventing runs. However, once you strip away the favorable confines of Petco, the Padres are actually 8% worse than league average when it comes to run prevention.

And while that's all well in good in the abstract, the Mets are playing three games in the Padres house.

This series could shake out much like the previous one. The Mets have had trouble preventing runs, but managed to shut down a weak hitting team in a pitcher-friendly park--essentially the same mix we see with the upcoming series. The Mets offense just put up five runs per game against a Giant's staff that has 9% better than league average at preventing runs, so they should be able to handle the Padres.

Moreover, the Mets send R.A. Dickey and Matt Harvey to the hill, giving them a good shot to take two out of three before heading back east. The big concern, as always, is what will happen when the Mets hand the ball over to their bullpen.

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Graphic Guide: League average is scaled to 100. Scores higher than 100 indicate performance better than league average, less than 100 indicates performance worse than league average regardless of whether the statistic is related to run scoring or run prevention.

Statistics with an asterisk have been park adjusted using FanGraph's park factors. All statistics have been league adjusted.

Run Scoring

RS/G: Runs Scored per Game

wRC+: Weighted Runs Created Plus

OBP: On-base Percentage

ISO: Isolated Power

BB/K: Ratio of Walks to Strikeouts

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio

Runs Allowed

RA/G: Runs Against per Game

SIERA: Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average

GB/FB: Ratio of Ground balls to Fly balls

K/BB: Strikeouts to Walk Ratio

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio

SD%: Shutdown Percentage ([SD/(SD+MD)])

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