Nobody saw it coming but it looks like the Mets have a pitching surplus for 2013. Not a surplus of awesome pitchers, but definitely a surplus. Right now our 2013 rotation looks like this: Dickey/Santana/Niese/Harvey/Gee. In Triple A we will have Jenrry Mejia and Collin McHugh ready to fill in as soon as the beginning of the season, with Zack Wheeler a better fill-in candidate probably by mid-season. There is also Jeurys Familia as a dark horse to be a starter some time in 2013.
Meanwhile, we have major defects on offense and very little we can get from the farm system. Our best bets are Matt den Dekker, Wilmer Flores and Zach Lutz and none of these guys is a very good bet to contribute a lot in 2013. We've got huge problems with our OF; Kirk Nieuwenhuis should be our CF, but other than that I don't see much. Lucas Duda might be able to hit but he sure can't field. Jason Bay has proven he's not effective. Mike Baxter is probably best as a bench player.
This swap is not out of the question: Wheeler was ranked #14 on Keith Law's Top 50 list, while Myers was #4. In other words, they are somewhere in the same area of rankings, but Myers is considered more valuable.
So why might the Royals make the deal? They already have some solid young hitters on the team, but they have no pitching. They are going to need at least 3 new rotation members next year and they want to compete now. They don't have much money so they are likely to need to do a trade.
Getting Wheeler would give them someone who could contribute next year and gives them a cheap, long-term solution with real upside.
And there is one more factor in the equation: the Royals have refused to promote Myers all year because it would bump Jeff Francoeur to the bench. The Royals are paying him around $5 million to play next year as well, and they seem to believe he has real value. It could be they don't want to bump him from the lineup and this could motivate them to move Myers if they could get a valuable prospect in return. Could it be that Francoeur would help us make this deal? If so, it would be the best thing he has ever done for the Mets.
I think, given our dearth of near-ready hitting prospects, I would even consider some sort of second prospect to help make this deal happen. Not a great one, but something to even it out, given Myers higher ranking.
So what does everyone think? Would you make this deal? I figure with this switch, if you could also sign Cody Ross and trade Lucas Duda for a viable relief pitcher you might have a shot at 2013 contention, but that whole plan is another post.