Listen, we all want R.A. Dickey to win the Cy Young. He's an awesome person, a knuckleballer (who doesn't love a knuckleballer?), and of course a Met. And he's having an awesome season.
But let's not kid ourselves here - and let's try and remember to stay partially objective - there is a strong case that he should not be the favorite right now, with Cinci's Johnny Cueto being the #1 contender for the award. Let me highlight two sets of #s:
From Baseball Reference:
An average pitcher pitching in the parks Johnny Cueto has pitched in this year would give up 4.74 Runs per 9 innings pitched. This is largely because Great American Ballpark (Cinci) is a batter's best friend.
An average pitcher pitching in the parks R.A. Dickey has pitched in this year would give up 4.31 Runs per 9 innings pitched. This is largely because CitiField is still a pitcher's park, if less so than last year.
*These numbers are in Runs Allowed, not Earned Runs Allowed, so we're counting unearned runs here too.
That's nearly a half a run more we'd expect from Johnny Cueto per 9 innings. And despite this big disadvantage, he's leading Dickey in ERA (And even in wins, for what little that's worth).
This is why Johnny Cueto is not just the favorite to win the Cy Young (assuming he can keep it up, which may not be the case), but would be a deserved winner if things remained the same...this would NOT be a robbery. Please keep that in mind you guys.
Dickey may very well win the Cy Young - there's a month left to pitch, and anything can happen - just one bad Cueto start and Dickey may lead the league in ERA. And if Dickey leads the league in wins and is close in ERA to Cueto, I suspect Dickey will win it despite RA #s. But if Dickey doesn't, remember: this probably will NOT be a robbery.