The updated projected 2013 arbitration Super 2 cutoff is service time of 2 years, 139 days #MLB— CAA Baseball (@CAA_Baseball) September 13, 2012
According to Baseball Reference, Thole is going to finish this season with 2 years and 142 days of Major League service time. This would qualify Thole for super-two status, and put him in line for a raise. Thole would be arbitration eligible for the first time.
There aren't a ton of players to look at as comparable cases. His .255 wOBA this season would rank him among the worst hitting catchers in the sport. He's not exactly known for his glove, although he's not terrible defensively either. Top catchers haven't exactly broken the bank in their first arbitration eligible seasons, and it's hard to picture Thole getting anywhere near any of those figures. Most likely, Thole would be due a salary under $1 million, likely something closer to the 750K which Jesus Flores settled for in his first season of eligibility.
Whether or not the Mets feel that Thole is worth more than the minimum will be something to watch early in the off-season. A raise of 300-500K really shouldn't be detrimental to the Mets payroll situation, and the Mets don't have any internal options that look to be anywhere close to Major League ready. That said, Thole offers very little in terms of upside, and there will be quite a few available catchers before we have a single non-tender. It will be something to watch, but I think I'd prefer if CAA was just off by a few days in their projections.