Friends and Fellow Met Fans - thank you for coming to my AAOP fanpost. I decided to take a very measured and serious approach with my submission, and did my best to limit the size (these things are getting overwhelming, how the hell am I suppose to keep my job with this much reading material?!?!?!).
To help me complete my first attempt at an AAOP I've enlisted the talents of WFAN personalities, Steven Somers and Mike Francesa, to add commentary along the way. These are professional sports talk people - so I hold their opinion in high regard.
Also - I wanted to graphically represent what the Mets have done over the last couple of seasons and my projections for 2014. So here is that:
These Mets will win 88 Games, Powered by David Wrights 110 RBIz
FlustownFandom: Catcher and 3rd base are the only locks in the infield. As much as I don't see Murphy going anywhere – I think his contract is starting to outweigh his value. With nowhere else to feature Flores’s bat, 2nd base will need to be freed up. Daniel Murphy is a great offensive second basemen, but I just don’t think he produces enough as a corner IF. In reality – I think the Daniel Murphy trade happens midseason, but for AAOP purposes he is traded now.
At first base you are left with a combination of two left handers and a righty with (-) power and (+) contact. Satin features on my bench regardless – so he stays. We are left with Ike and Duda. I have been vocally against multiple platoons – but one platoon at first base can work. The lefty job is going to Davis. He plays solid defense and has fleetingly shown us greater upside.
My AAOP move has been played out somewhat similarly elsewhere. Murphy and Duda to the Rays for Hak Ju Lee and Mike Montgomery or Blake Snell. Yunel Escobar will likely return at SS – and is an offensive upgrade over Lee and par defensively. The Rays have three more SS ranked inside their top 20 prospects to compete for the spot once Yunel is gone, so they might be looking to cash in on Hak now. Lucas Duda would be an upgrade over the combination of Luke Scott, Delmon Young, and Shelley Duncan that the Rays ‘fielded’ at DH in 2014.
This is sad moment for me. I had high hopes for ‘The Dude’. Here is a piece by Joe Petruccio that was posted on his blog the day after Beltran’s departure – I also included my super catchy comment from that day that captures the enthusiasm I once held when it came to Lucas. Ah, memories...
AW on July 28, 2011 at 9:14 AM
The New York Mets love his Bat,
Hopefully he'll put up Beltran Stats
Oh, de doo-da day
Goin' to back up Wright
Goin' to right to play
I bet my money on a beer bellied nag
Atleast he's better than Bay
The Schmooze: When it comes to playing left field - lucas DOda can't DOdat. But wait! He may turn out to add TONS of VALUE.... in the form of a trade. All the mets position players who can't PLAY a position, and I'm looking at you Murphy, might be appealing to a team in the AL.
Francesa: When youah tawking about da mets future, ok, I dun see duda being part of dat. He is not a good fieldah, ok, and - to be honest - his bat has naht been what the mets taught it could be. It hasn't.
FlushtownFandom: It was great to see Juan Lagares and EYJ do something this year – and I would like to give them both a chance to make that happen again next year. But this is where Sandy does the REAL spending in my mind. I don’t want Choo because my personal opinion is that you shouldn’t buy players at their peak value. The fact that he has been consistent is a red flag to me – because you are going to pay a premium on consistency you will not likely get. Disagree? Fine, write your own AAOP.
I do want to invest in a premium FA talent though – and my guy is Jacoby Ellsbury. He is great when healthy, but his injury history will ultimately lower his appeal. Baseball Prospectus writer Dan Brooks has suggested that Ellsbury will get a deal similar to Bourne’s. I would be a buyer at 4yr/$53m – with mutual options and incentives (games played, steals leaders, GG, etc) that can make the deal worth up to 6yr/$90m. In 2014 Lagares slides over to RF to make Ellsbury (who isn’t bad with the glove in his own right) happy. This would also allow him to shift a bit to the left and cover some ground to help out EYJ/Others.
I would also bring in two injury prone players who have the potential to be excellent and would compete for a spot against EYJ. Grady Sizemore gets a 2yr/$2m deal – with only about $1m guaranteed, and a team option at $5m for year three. Sizemore hasn’t done anything in 4 years, I get it, but he 28 bWAR by the time he was 26. Insane.
Guitierrez is more of a tempered risk – and can possibly be the Scott Hairston/Marlon Byrd type that the Mets have been fortunate to find over the last few years. Reports are that he probably won’t get a QO from the Mariners.He has a bad string of injuries to his name as well, but might be worth it at 2yr/$10m
Francesa: I dun like it, ok. Good playahs when der healty, sure, but when was the last time a met could stay healty, you know. stupid signings. stupid. These guys are FINISHED. And did you say a 3 year contract for Grady Sizemaw? are you kidding me. I wouldn't give sizemaw a contract for one owah, ok. Sizemore has no place in dis town.
Schmooze: ELLSbury will WELL bury any hate the fans have for their owners. he will STEAL your affection. and the ladies of new york, all the ladies, will GET ON BASE with an acquisition like this.
If he comes back healthy - the Mets would be looking for some GREAT D from GRADY. A signing of SIZEMORE would make it so the CitiField attendance had MORESIZE.
Clyde Frazier chips in on Ellsbury: I really like Jacoby Ellsbury for New York. He is a classy player, always stealing and fielding. I Love his glove, and his bat is fat. What he will be for the Blue and Orange is the Glue and…and… and… *Head Explodes*
FlushtownFandom: This is probably where I get beat up the most, after my plans for the infield and outfield.
SO - as you can see I am bringing back Dice-K and giving more money to Johan. Dice-k logic is simple; he showed enough at the end of the season where I don't have any reason to believe that there is another option out there who is guaranteed to out produce him for what he will be paid. Also - the 4hr games benefit us west coast people who work late. Santana is a bit sentimental, but I figured I'd rather pay him $8m for something rather than $5.5m for nothing. If he can be had for only $2m guaranteed (or the same deal as Marcum) - I would do it.
The rest of it is pretty straight forward I guess. I'm only making a plan for 25 - so there is that.Obviously one of the started would be converted to a long reliever.
Schmooze: Will the Mets GO ON without JOHAN? I think so. And things were very DICEY when DIASUKE was on the mound. But GEE! we have GEE! and Niese is nice.
Mike Francesa: I jus can't see the Mets winning any games next year. I can't, ok. You dun have a Mo-type playah in that bullpen, and you need that guy. And as far as bringing back Johan - gimme a break. He isn't Pettite, OK. ANDY PETTITE IS A STARTING PITCHER!!!!
Are there flaws in this plan? Oh, most definitely.
Did I stay on Budget? --- my math has me at 25 Players and $79.43m after Johan and Bay dead cash, and 0.49m for my back-up catcher Anthony Recker (surprise mutha-uckas!),
Do I want an Omir Santos ball? No, No I do not.
Do I proofread? No, No I do not.