FanPost

Free Agent Pitching for the Mets Next Year


With the likelihood of The Mets going after a veteran presence in the rotation next year, and the continued message from the front office that 2014 will be the year Mets get back into contention, let's take a look at a few pitchers who may be able to contribute to a winning team next season.

The list below is in no particular order, however all the mentioned players could play a role for The Mets in 2014.

A J Burnett

#

Name

Team

W

L

SV

G

GS

IP

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

BABIP

LOB%

GB%

HR/FB

ERA

FIP

xFIP

WAR

8

A.J. Burnett

Pirates

10

11

0

30

30

191.0

9.85

3.16

0.52

.305

71.8 %

56.5 %

9.1 %

3.30

2.80

2.92

4.0

As unlikely as it seems that he will want to move from Pittsburgh, there can be no doubt Burnett had a fantastic season with The Pirates. Despite owning a losing record he posted some very impressive numbers, his xFIP ranking 8th amongst starters with over 100 innings pitched, and a BABIP of over .300 unlikely to be repeated next season.

His peripherals for a 37 year old were also mightily impressive, maintaining a 9+ K/9 and a decent HR/9 which wouldn't be affected too much by a move to CitiField. Burnett's stats would play well in the confines of Citi, the only problem is persuading him to come here. Possibly a bit too expensive for a team with so many holes in the lineup, but his presence would most likely mean one or both of Gee and Montero could be used as trade bait.

Scott Kazmir

#

Name

Team

W

L

SV

G

GS

IP

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

BABIP

LOB%

GB%

HR/FB

ERA

FIP

xFIP

WAR

23

Scott Kazmir

Indians

10

9

0

29

29

158.0

9.23

2.68

1.08

.324

73.4 %

40.9 %

11.6 %

4.04

3.51

3.36

2.5

Ex-Met Kazmir had a good season in Cleveland and his stats hint at him being even better with the right conditions. His ERA is nothing to write home about but when looking at his xFIP and BABIP it becomes clear that he could easily produce better numbers. His BABIP was the 15th highest amongst pitchers with 100+ innings and he will be extremely unlucky to have such a high score next season. his K/9 and BB/9 were respectable as well; the one real concern would be his HR/9 rate, which would be unlikely to get better at Citi.

Kazmir could be slightly cheaper than Burnett but would likely look for a multi year deal. Kazmir could be used as trade bait once Montero and Syndegaard reach the big leagues, and being packaged with the likes of Mejia and Gee could bring back a decent piece for the lineup. Kazmir would be a number 4 or 5 but a good half season with The Mets could see his stock rise and that would be the perfect time to ship him.

Josh Johnson

#

Name

Team

W

L

SV

G

GS

IP

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

BABIP

LOB%

GB%

HR/FB

ERA

FIP

xFIP

WAR

97

Josh Johnson

Blue Jays

2

8

0

16

16

81.1

9.18

3.32

1.66

.356

63.3 %

45.1 %

18.5 %

6.20

4.62

3.58

0.5

A potentially cheap flyer, Johnson's main issue will be to avoid injury next season and because of this he will likely accept a cheap, incentive laden offer from a team. It would be well worth The Mets taking a chance on Johnson who was a borderline ace very recently.

His numbers will also benefit from being in the more pitcher friendly CitiField and as with Kazmir, his BABIP is unlikely to be so high again and neither will his HR/9. Again xFIP suggests a more respectable ERA from Johnson in a more pitcher friendly environment and his K/9 rate means he is still able to get batters out. Even if The Mets signed someone else, it would still be worth pursuing Johnson who could potentially join the ranks of Byrd and Capuano in having a late flourish in New York.

Chris Capuano

#

Name

W

L

SV

G

GS

IP

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

BABIP

LOB%

GB%

HR/FB

ERA

FIP

xFIP

WAR

6

Chris Capuano

4

7

0

24

20

105.2

6.90

2.04

0.94

.334

68.9 %

46.4 %

9.6 %

4.26

3.55

3.67

1.0

And so on to Capuano, who will likely be let go of by the Dodgers, he would most definitely represent a back-end of the rotation acquisition. His K/9 and HR/9 rates are not brilliant and he frankly looks like an older Josh Johnson in terms of BABIP, LOB% and GB%. What that means is Capuano is not going to be getting any better and would therefore be a harder player to flip in a trade-deadline deal.

The benefits are he will most likely be cheap, already getting a $1 million dollar buy out from the Dodgers he might even be convinced to sign a minor league deal to try and prove himself in Spring Training. Having pitched for The Mets previously also helps but if fans expect to get the same performance from him this time around they may be sorely disappointed.

Bronson Arroyo

#

Name

W

L

SV

G

GS

IP

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

BABIP

LOB%

GB%

HR/FB

ERA

FIP

xFIP

WAR

7

Bronson Arroyo

14

12

0

32

32

202.0

5.52

1.51

1.43

.267

77.9 %

44.4 %

14.0 %

3.79

4.49

3.97

0.8

Arroyo has expressed interest in pitching for the Mets next year and he is certainly a durable arm with excellent control. Apart from that nothing else particularly impresses. His HR/9 would most likely drop at CitiField but his BABIP and xFIP are unlikely to improve as he gets older, combine that with a pretty awful K/9 rate and Arroyo starts to look like a risk not worth taking. His tERA and SIERA clock in at over 4 and 5 respectively.

As he is so durable Arroyo would definitely want a decent contract possibly over multiple years and for a team with such pitching depth as The Mets, it doesn't seem to make sense to pursue him.

The In House Options

Daisuke Matsuzaka

#

Name

W

L

SV

G

GS

IP

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

BABIP

LOB%

GB%

HR/FB

ERA

FIP

xFIP

WAR

11

Daisuke Matsuzaka

3

3

0

7

7

38.2

7.68

3.72

0.93

.259

67.5 %

28.3 %

7.7 %

4.42

4.32

4.81

0.3


Aaron Harang

#

Name

W

L

SV

G

GS

IP

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

BABIP

LOB%

GB%

HR/FB

ERA

FIP

xFIP

WAR

24

Aaron Harang

0

1

0

4

4

23.0

10.17

4.70

1.96

.268

88.5 %

30.5 %

17.9 %

3.52

5.31

4.15

-0.2

Cop out nope no gif

Bartolo Colon

#

Name

W

L

SV

G

GS

IP

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

BABIP

LOB%

GB%

HR/FB

ERA

FIP

xFIP

WAR

1

Bartolo Colon

18

6

0

30

30

190.1

5.53

1.37

0.66

.294

80.0 %

41.5 %

6.0 %

2.65

3.23

3.95

3.9

One final option to look at is Colon.

Not a bad option certainly and would be a superior version of Arroyo his stats put him somewhere between Niese and Gee. His low HR/9 and GB% would not play as well at CitiField however so he would most likely be sitting in the rotation at the number 3 or 4 spot.

Conclusion

With all of the above options it has to be taken into consideration that there is a very real possibility that they could be filling Matt Harvey's shoes at some point in the season; do The Mets go for a steady hand or a high risk/high reward gamble?

A combination of Josh Johnson and Scott Kazmir/Bartolo Colon would give the team options, durability and a fighting chance at contention. If Harvey stays healthy one or both pitchers could be traded. It is highly unlikely that the Mets will sign two pitchers, the depth of the system and the players expected to debut in 2014 means just the one. Josh Johnson is the risk, but he also has the most potential, sometimes you have to take a gamble.

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.

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