If you haven't seen it, this series from Fangraphs is excellent.
I especially enjoy the process: line all the players up and figure out who you would want most (or least want to get rid of). It takes into account tools, performance, age, projectability, contract, position, all of it.
By the way, for those of you who are proposing Dillion Gee and Justin Turner for Tulowitski or CarGo, the impartial judges have them at #10 and #13 in trade value in ALL of baseball. For reference, David Wright is #21, and Matt Harvey was #7 (before Tommy John). Wil-freaking-Myers is #38.
I wanted to make my own top 50 Trade Value list for Mets currently under contract for 2014 (obviously including minor leaguers). It is gut based, not stats based. I'm intending it as a discussion starter. You know, make your own top 50 and put it in the comments. I did it backwards, starting with a list of about 60 and pulling out the names one by one that I would least mind not having on the team, assuming I were a GM who wanted to win in 2014, to win in the future, and was planning on signing some free agents before the season began.
A few notes on my process:
- David Wright will go into the Hall of Fame as a Met, and I will never trade him.
- All things being equal, I prefer upside to proven averageness.
- This is ultimately not an analytical process, though if anyone can think of a way to compare major and minor leaguers' future production effectively I'd be interested in hearing them.
Here's the List:
50 - Cory Mazzoni
49 - Darrell Ceciliani
48 - Luis Cessa
47 - Scott Rice
46 - Ivan Wilson (TOOLZ!)
45 - Rainy Lara
44 - Wuilmer Becerra
43 - Lee Mazzilli, Jr.
42 - Hansel Robles
41 - Kirk Nieuwenhuis
40 - Juan Centano
39 - Justin Turner (has a positive WPA for his career)
38 - Luis Mateo (probably much better than this, but gut tells me he's not coming back from TJ)
37 - Lucas Duda
36 - Scott Atchinson
35 - Ruben Tejada
34 - Jack Lethersich
33 - Jacob deGrom
32 - Wilfredo Tovar
31 - Josh Satin (124 wRC+ with positive fielding? Yes.)
30 - Matt den Dekker
29 - Jeurys Familia
28 - Domingo Tapia
27 - Jeremy Hefner (may have figured it out, but still worth only .2 WAR this year)
26 - Gabriel Ynoa
25 - Gavin Cecchini
24 - Vic Black (Fangraphs has two articles calling him a future closer)
23 - Ahmed Rosario (TOOLZ! BA called him the best prospect in the Appy League)
22 - Michael Fulmer (Sickles gave him a B, but then he got sick)
21 - Dilson Herrera (Sickles gave him a B-)
20 - Eric Young, Jr.
19 - Ike Davis (has a 3 WAR season on his resume. I don't want to see him flourish elsewhere)
18 - Bobby Parnell
17 - Steven Matz
16 - Kevin Plawecki
15 - Dominic Smith
14 - Brandon Nimmo
13 - Rafael Montero
12 - Jenrry Mejia (2.46 FIP in 2013 (in only 27 innings))
11 - Wilmer Flores (a useful, not complete player)
10 - Caesar Puello (a gut call to put him this high)
9 - Dillion Gee (a career ERA under 4)
8 - Jon Niese (team friendly contract with a career ERA under 4 and even better peripherials)
7 - Juan Lagares (more career WAR than Ruben Tejada in 120 games)
6 - Daniel Murphy (10 career WAR; a rare sure thing)
5 - Travis d'Arnaud (a possibly premium player at a premium position)
4 - Zack Wheeler (still mostly projection, but he looked good against major league batters)
3 - Noah Syndergaard (Sickels gave him an A-)
2 - Matt Harvey (6 WAR and a 2.00 FIP)
1 - David Wright (53 Career WAR, 2 straight years of 6+ WAR)