How many games will the 2014 Mets win?

David Manning-USA TODAY Sports

Projecting the 2014 Mets' wins, based on the current 40-man roster.

What if tomorrow were Opening Day? How many games would the current Mets roster be expected to win? Using only the 40-man roster, I put together my preferred 2014 Mets team and estimated its wins above replacement (WAR).

The usual caveats apply: these are back-of-the-napkin projections, more than 25 players are listed to meet plate appearance and innings pitched benchmarks, and the roster will likely look different come March. Here goes:

2014_40-man_war_medium

Remember, conservatism is king for projections. Some bullet thoughts:

  • If we assume ~48 wins for a replacement level team, this looks like a 74-78 win squad. New shortstop and relief pitchers, please.
  • I'll take the over on the Curtis Granderson, Zack Wheeler, and Dillon Gee projections. I'll take the under on the bullpen as a whole.
  • I gave Ike Davis the bulk of the at-bats at first base but I don't feel too strongly about it. Lucas Duda and Josh Satin will also log time at the position.
  • It would be really cool if Jenrry Mejia could pitch more than 100 innings next season.

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